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Old 01-05-2019, 06:24 PM  
carcosa carcosa is offline
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Let's talk about the Colts
They just beat up on a dogshit Texans team despite only sacking Watson 3 times. Their defense couldn't get pressure against the worst OL in the NFL.

So, how many touchdowns will Mahomes throw??
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:07 PM   #166
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If the "lets throw sideways, run triple fake screen shovel pass, punt to save 15 yards Andy Reid shows up, there could be problems.

Mahomes needs to be able to say "**** that noise" and change the play to something coherent. If the chiefs should make it to the big game, I fully believe Mahomes will have to overcome some typical Stupid **** Andy moments.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:09 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by jerryaldini View Post
I think the biggest key is whether their vaunted Oline really can beat our pass rush. If we can't pressure Luck I think you have to expect something like the no punt game. Get our normal pressure we can stop them enough to win by more than a TD. Either way sit back and enjoy the Mahomes show.
After Saturday, Andrew Luck will have his whole off-season to talk to his therapist about his new phobia of the number "95".
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:09 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Wallcrawler View Post
If the "lets throw sideways, run triple fake screen shovel pass, punt to save 15 yards Andy Reid shows up, there could be problems.

Mahomes needs to be able to say "**** that noise" and change the play to something coherent. If the chiefs should make it to the big game, I fully believe Mahomes will have to overcome some typical Stupid **** Andy moments.
No. Inaccurate. Overcoming Sutton will be the only coaching issue.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:10 PM   #169
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Yeah, but Watkins is key to this offense as well, because then it forces defenses to be more honest instead of rotating covers to Kelce or Tyreek. As a defensive coordinator, Kelvin Benjamin doesn't scare me. Chris Conley doesn't scare me. Robinson.... maybe, depending on which Robinson shows up.

Also, I will be curious to see what kind of a game plan Andy and his staff is going to put together. If they go sideways too much......
It's also going to be interesting to see what the Colts do. Today they played very conservatively and kept everything in front of them. Watson really couldn't take advantage of it. Will they try to do it again next week and try to prevent big plays? If so, Mahomes will have to be patient.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:16 PM   #170
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Vegas disagrees. Maybe you were thinking "dumb money"?
Vegas never agrees or disagrees. Vegas never bets money on the games. All the line from Vegas tells you is what the bettors Vegas has access to believe.

Vegas then moves the line up or down, not dependent upon their own inside football knowledge, but rather the movement is made to get the same amount of money on both sides. If too much money goes on the Chiefs, they will give more points to the Colts or they will reduce the points given to the Colts if not enough people pick the Chiefs.

Vegas doesn't care about QB ratings or injuries or the weather. All they care about is the dollar figure on each side of the bet. It makes their life very simple. The only problem they run into is when bettors will not move to the weak money side even when they throw heavy points that way. Now the bettors can certainly be influenced by ratings and injuries and weather and decide their wager accordingly. When Vegas adjusts the line, it is to react to the bettors' behaviors, not the conditions that influence them.

When you are the house, you make money no matter who wins as long as you can get the bets to balance out on both sides of the line.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:20 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by DelFan View Post
Vegas never agrees or disagrees. Vegas never bets money on the games. All the line from Vegas tells you is what the bettors Vegas has access to believe.

Vegas then moves the line up or down, not dependent upon their own inside football knowledge, but rather the movement is made to get the same amount of money on both sides. If too much money goes on the Chiefs, they will give more points to the Colts or they will reduce the points given to the Colts if not enough people pick the Chiefs.

Vegas doesn't care about QB ratings or injuries or the weather. All they care about is the dollar figure on each side of the bet. It makes their life very simple. The only problem they run into is when bettors will not move to the weak money side even when they throw heavy points that way. Now the bettors can certainly be influenced by ratings and injuries and weather and decide their wager accordingly. When Vegas adjusts the line, it is to react to the bettors' behaviors, not the conditions that influence them.

When you are the house, you make money no matter who wins as long as you can get the bets to balance out on both sides of the line.
No shit...

I think he was referring to the opening lines...
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:22 PM   #172
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Colts are dead last at defending tight ends, FWIW.

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Old 01-05-2019, 11:25 PM   #173
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Watkins better be playing. If they're focused on covering up their weakness to TEs then that leaves Hill and Watkins to put in some serious work. Robinson amd Harris also could have big days if left unaccounted for..
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:26 PM   #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DelFan View Post
Vegas never agrees or disagrees. Vegas never bets money on the games. All the line from Vegas tells you is what the bettors Vegas has access to believe.

Vegas then moves the line up or down, not dependent upon their own inside football knowledge, but rather the movement is made to get the same amount of money on both sides. If too much money goes on the Chiefs, they will give more points to the Colts or they will reduce the points given to the Colts if not enough people pick the Chiefs.

Vegas doesn't care about QB ratings or injuries or the weather. All they care about is the dollar figure on each side of the bet. It makes their life very simple. The only problem they run into is when bettors will not move to the weak money side even when they throw heavy points that way. Now the bettors can certainly be influenced by ratings and injuries and weather and decide their wager accordingly. When Vegas adjusts the line, it is to react to the bettors' behaviors, not the conditions that influence them.

When you are the house, you make money no matter who wins as long as you can get the bets to balance out on both sides of the line.
The sharps are the "smart money" and initial consensus favors Chiefs.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:26 PM   #175
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Colts are weakest team in playoffs, only quality wins are against Texans and Cowboys. It shouldn't even be close or a shootout. I'm thinking 42-14 Chiefs.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:26 PM   #176
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No shit...

I think he was referring to the opening lines...
yeppers. sharps & oddsmakers
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:33 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Wallcrawler View Post
If the "lets throw sideways, run triple fake screen shovel pass, punt to save 15 yards Andy Reid shows up, there could be problems.

Mahomes needs to be able to say "**** that noise" and change the play to something coherent. If the chiefs should make it to the big game, I fully believe Mahomes will have to overcome some typical Stupid **** Andy moments.
If Andy finds a way to lose this Home game against the #6 Seed with the MVP of the NFL throwing the ball for us- he should be packing his office on Monday.

If he can't win this game, he will never win.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:35 PM   #178
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If Andy finds a way to lose this Home game against the #6 Seed with the MVP of the NFL throwing the ball for us- he should be packing his office on Monday.

If he can't win this game, he will never win.
Bottom 5 defense in the league. There's your built in excuse if it happens.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:39 PM   #179
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Bottom 5 defense in the league. There's your built in excuse if it happens.
Either we advance or Sutton is gone. It will be interesting to see the threshold for retaining Sutton - AFCCG or SB.
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:44 PM   #180
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The Colts are not nearly consistent enough on offense to keep up in this game. Luck will be under more pressure than he has seen in a while and he will force some balls and throw at least two picks. I am not worried about this game at all. I don’t want to hear about their defense either. Watson missed guys wide open all night. Mahomes won’t do that.
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