Analytics talk

[O.city]

Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff.

Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg.

Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied?

If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing.

Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?

[Megatron96]

Never take points off the board.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by chiefforlife

I feel like it was the right call.

4 shots at the endzone with Lamar is nearly impossible to stop. He had to feel good about that.

He also knows that Buffalo can score often and quickly. Josh Allen is a closer in that offense. Even though the D had held up pretty well, its crunch time and he knew they would not be able to stop Buffalo with the game on the line.

Playing for the tie only delays the inevitable, he had to play for the win there.

I also think that the INT made a bigger difference than is probably obvious. When you go for it, you expect that the "fail" outcome is that the Bills get the ball on their own 2 yard line and need to drive ~65 hards for FG try. That's always a tough hole to get out of. Instead, Jackson tosses up a duck, and the Bills end up with the ball at the 20, only needing ~45 yards.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Never take points off the board.

Incorrect.

You should almost always go for two in the first half too. But I know old traditionists like to say "you dont chase points in the first half". Thats actually the best time to do it because you arent playing situational football yet and you are just trying to maximize your points per play.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Incorrect.

You should almost always go for two in the first half too. But I know old traditionists like to say "you dont chase points in the first half". Thats actually the best time to do it because you arent playing situational football yet and you are just trying to maximize your points per play.

Except that in this case it was the end of the game, it was situational football, and they should've kicked the FG, if only to create the potential decision tree for BUF to take a FG if BAL managed to get a stop outside their own EZ.

in fact, if they'd kicked it, based on the outcome, they would've tied when BUF kicked that FG to win the game.

Again, theory is nice, but reality often runs counter to hypotheticals.