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Old 03-19-2022, 07:50 AM  
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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***Official 2022 STL Cardinals Thread***

2022 Opening Day Lineup
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2022 Opening Day roster
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For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.


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Old 07-08-2022, 10:08 PM   #316
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Y’all realize that Carlson has hit RHP like shit his whole career, right?

Why are we going to pretend like Carlson and his career .700 OPS against righties is some set in stone everyday starter?

He’s looking like a platoon player. And he’s not the defender or baserunner that Bader is.

Bottom line is this team ALWAYS picks its sacred cows and it’s always the wrong damn guy. I’m not sure I truly give a shit either way - the organization fired an elite manager because he wanted to win a championship over merely ‘playing meaningful baseball in September…’

John Mozeliak has ****ed up about 80% of the significant roster decisions he’s made over the last 6-8 years and he’s never been held accountable for anything. And every year he becomes more smug and an even greater prick.

I just really dislike this organization.
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Old 07-09-2022, 10:23 AM   #317
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After seeing Carlson play CF fantastically the last two nights…….

What kind of ready for MLB pitching will Bader/O’Neill bring in a trade?
#4 starter, #5? , middle relief, didly squat for this year but maybe a high ceiling prospect 2-3 years away?
All do respect, you hang on to Bader. His defense doesn't slump and is ideal for that number 9 spot in the order if we ever find a catcher that can hit his way out of paper bag.

I would see what Carlson could bring back in a trade before Bader/ONeill. ONeill has more value to us than we would get back in a trade.

I would look at what we could get for Liberatore before he craters (I like Thompson more long term).

What could we get for Liberatore/Carlson...Montas? Haven't heard how his MRI went, but if healthy he will command a high price.
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Old 07-09-2022, 10:32 AM   #318
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Y’all realize that Carlson has hit RHP like shit his whole career, right?

Why are we going to pretend like Carlson and his career .700 OPS against righties is some set in stone everyday starter?

He’s looking like a platoon player. And he’s not the defender or baserunner that Bader is.

Bottom line is this team ALWAYS picks its sacred cows and it’s always the wrong damn guy. I’m not sure I truly give a shit either way - the organization fired an elite manager because he wanted to win a championship over merely ‘playing meaningful baseball in September…’

John Mozeliak has ****ed up about 80% of the significant roster decisions he’s made over the last 6-8 years and he’s never been held accountable for anything. And every year he becomes more smug and an even greater prick.

I just really dislike this organization.
Probably could have gotten Ozuna for Flaherty and kept Alcantara and Gallen. Flaherty was more polished at the time, but the upside was much higher even back then for Alcantara. They are even worse evaluating our own position players.
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Old 07-09-2022, 11:04 AM   #319
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All do respect, you hang on to Bader. His defense doesn't slump and is ideal for that number 9 spot in the order if we ever find a catcher that can hit his way out of paper bag.

I would see what Carlson could bring back in a trade before Bader/ONeill. ONeill has more value to us than we would get back in a trade.

I would look at what we could get for Liberatore before he craters (I like Thompson more long term).

What could we get for Liberatore/Carlson...Montas? Haven't heard how his MRI went, but if healthy he will command a high price.
They need to take a real swing and fix the front/middle of this rotation. The only place that's going to happen is with Miami. And the pieces match up EXTREMELY well.

That team has 7-8 young arms that could easily be the most high ceiling arm in our system. Many of whom have multiple years of team control.

The obvious target is Pablo Lopez but Lopez does have some significant health issues that make him extremely high risk as your only addition. However, Trevor Rodgers has fallen slowly out of favor as well and has a higher floor and a better health record, even if he doesn't likely have the ceiling Lopez does.

So get 'em BOTH. And yeah, pay for it.

Carlson and Gorman for Lopez and Rodgers? Yeah, I think you make that deal at this point.

Your long-term IF is still Arenado - Winn - Edman - Goldy/Walker

Your OF is still TON - Bader - Donovan

DH becomes Burleson/Yepez as a real nice L/R platoon (just as it should've been to start the season).

Short term you have Donovan at 2b and Yepez/Nootbar in RF while calling up Burleson to suck up some DH at-bats as the long side of a platoon with Pujols.

Your SP is now Lopez - Wainright - Mikolas - Rodgers - Hudson/Matz. If Matz comes back healthy you move Hudson to the bullpen where his shitty fastball command won't hurt you as badly. Liberatore and Thompson have stuff that will play up well in relief and give you two viable lefties. Hicks/Gallegos/Helsley gives you three strong righties as well. Oviedo and Hudson can be the swing guys you've been looking for. Pallante rides the memphis shuttle.

Long-term you still have Graceffo (who's the highest ceiling arm in the system, IMO), Hence and McGreevy as possible 2-3-4 starters.

They HAVE to stop pretending like this is the Cardinals system of 4-5 years ago when they could just keep throwing arms at the problem. The guys they thought would be those guys just aren't getting the job done. Oviedo never developed into a viable starter. Liberatore's stuff is fringe-average as a rotation option.

If they're serious about trying to build a winner, they're going to have to take chances. ****ing off in the margins won't get them anywhere with this sorry ass pitching staff. Trading Burleson for Kluber is just every bit of reeruned and yet that's the kind of nonsense I can see them pursuing because it's less scary.

It's also Moe's MO. So I'm sure it's what will happen.
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Old 07-09-2022, 11:15 AM   #320
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Arenado is the exact type of player you unload the Brinx truck for.
Why?

He's carrying the same contract he carried two years ago. 2 years ago the Rockies couldn't get anything more than Gomber and Montero. And to even get that much they had to chip $50 million into the pile.

Nothing Arenado has done in the 2 years since has demonstrated he's demonstrably better than the player that was traded. Moreover, he's now used 2 more years of his prime. Might he want a little more added to the last 2 years of his deal? Yeah - probably. But the market for him is fairly well established by the Rockies trade and I've seen little to indicate it will have shifted much.

If they add $3 million to the deal in 2026 and $8 million to it in 2027 that gets him up to 5/155 left on the deal and $31 million/season. I don't see the market substantially beating that. Some may site the Rendon deal but again - that deal came BEFORE the Arenado trade that established his market. And also, the Rendon deal was universally panned and has proven to be absolutely reeruned. It's like the A-Rod deal way back when, when teams just spit on agents that tried to use it to 're-set' the market for essentially a decade. Some deals are so damn bad that they serve no purpose in negotiations and that's one of them.
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Old 07-09-2022, 11:39 AM   #321
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Well there's a couple things different between a couple years ago with Arenado.

1) He would be a free agent and a team wouldn't be giving up prospects to get him on top of his salary.

2) He has answered the "can he hit outside of Coors?" question.

3) He's in the race for MVP.

4) Kris Bryant just got 7/182M.

He'd be pretty stupid to not leverage his opt-out to get a nice sizeable raise and I dont think a meager $11M is gonna do it.
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Old 07-09-2022, 11:45 AM   #322
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They need to take a real swing and fix the front/middle of this rotation. The only place that's going to happen is with Miami. And the pieces match up EXTREMELY well.

That team has 7-8 young arms that could easily be the most high ceiling arm in our system. Many of whom have multiple years of team control.

The obvious target is Pablo Lopez but Lopez does have some significant health issues that make him extremely high risk as your only addition. However, Trevor Rodgers has fallen slowly out of favor as well and has a higher floor and a better health record, even if he doesn't likely have the ceiling Lopez does.

So get 'em BOTH. And yeah, pay for it.

Carlson and Gorman for Lopez and Rodgers? Yeah, I think you make that deal at this point.

Your long-term IF is still Arenado - Winn - Edman - Goldy/Walker

Your OF is still TON - Bader - Donovan

DH becomes Burleson/Yepez as a real nice L/R platoon (just as it should've been to start the season).

Short term you have Donovan at 2b and Yepez/Nootbar in RF while calling up Burleson to suck up some DH at-bats as the long side of a platoon with Pujols.

Your SP is now Lopez - Wainright - Mikolas - Rodgers - Hudson/Matz. If Matz comes back healthy you move Hudson to the bullpen where his shitty fastball command won't hurt you as badly. Liberatore and Thompson have stuff that will play up well in relief and give you two viable lefties. Hicks/Gallegos/Helsley gives you three strong righties as well. Oviedo and Hudson can be the swing guys you've been looking for. Pallante rides the memphis shuttle.

Long-term you still have Graceffo (who's the highest ceiling arm in the system, IMO), Hence and McGreevy as possible 2-3-4 starters.

They HAVE to stop pretending like this is the Cardinals system of 4-5 years ago when they could just keep throwing arms at the problem. The guys they thought would be those guys just aren't getting the job done. Oviedo never developed into a viable starter. Liberatore's stuff is fringe-average as a rotation option.

If they're serious about trying to build a winner, they're going to have to take chances. ****ing off in the margins won't get them anywhere with this sorry ass pitching staff. Trading Burleson for Kluber is just every bit of reeruned and yet that's the kind of nonsense I can see them pursuing because it's less scary.

It's also Moe's MO. So I'm sure it's what will happen.
I like Gorman more long term than you do, but yes that would be an intriguing deal.

More likely we will throw away someone(s) for a Madison Bumgarner or some other has been who once was a name (Lester/Happ 2.0).
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Old 07-09-2022, 11:58 AM   #323
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Well there's a couple things different between a couple years ago with Arenado.

1) He would be a free agent and a team wouldn't be giving up prospects to get him on top of his salary.

2) He has answered the "can he hit outside of Coors?" question.

3) He's in the race for MVP.

4) Kris Bryant just got 7/182M.

He'd be pretty stupid to not leverage his opt-out to get a nice sizeable raise and I dont think a meager $11M is gonna do it.
You don't think that had already been answered? Maybe not for some teams, but certainly for many.

His 2019 season where he put up an .866 OPS and 20 rd homers (w/ the 'Coors Hangover' weighing that down) was an extremely loud indicator, was it not?

And the 'prospects' the Cardinals gave up weren't for Arenado - they were for the $50 million offset. And even then, they didn't have anything nearing that sort of surplus value.

Bryant's 7/$182 takes him through his age 36 season and included his age 30 season. An Arenado deal wouldn't start until his age 32 season, which is a notably 'cliff' year. Bryant's deal from age 32-36 is 5/$131; substantially less than the 5/$155 I proposed.

Finally - Arenado doesn't have your classic 'old man skills'. The biggest problem with hitters as they age isn't necessarily what they do with the strikes they swing at. When you look at the aging curves, where they REALLY collapse is what they do on balls (rather than strikes) they swing at. The numbers decline substantially. Arenado is not your Big Papi style selective hitter. Arenado is a very aggressive hitter who swings at balls well above league average. Additionally, league average O-Contact rates are around 65% and Arenado's over 70% - also well above league average.

Offensively I don't expect him to age well. 34 is when the wall really comes for those metrics as well. And MLB front offices know all of this stuff as well as I do. I don't see teams falling over themselves to extend him through his age 37/38 seasons. Those aren't going to be pleasant years, IMO.
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:03 PM   #324
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I like Gorman more long term than you do, but yes that would be an intriguing deal.

More likely we will throw away someone(s) for a Madison Bumgarner or some other has been who once was a name (Lester/Happ 2.0).
I don't mind Gorman at all - I'm not giving him away here.

I just don't think there's any way he sticks at 2b (you can see in how he moves; not a natural 'bender') and as a DH, I don't think he's any more valuable to us than Burleson. In fact, I think Burleson may be a better pure hitter. Also, Gorman takes a really aggressive hack - I think he'll have the same kind of long-term injury issues (with those nagging soft-tissue things) that we see from O'Neill. And I figure you'll see a lot of them in his back, which concerns me and further diminishes he chance of staying at 2b.

Moreover, Masyn Winn is an ELECTRIC player. I mean just incredibly dynamic. Lightning fast (like, potential 99th percentile sprint speed), probably the strongest arm in the minors and very soft hands. He could be a GG caliber shortstop the first day he takes the field. And with his approach, a genuine leadoff hitter.

Edman at 2b just makes too much sense long-term. Again; just a premier defensive player. You put those two up the middle defensively and let them run - they're awfully well built for Busch Stadium. It's less about dumping a prospect than it is finding better fits for our talent.

This team is better with Winn - Edman up the middle and Burleson at DH long-term than it is with something weird like Edman - Gorman up the middle and Winn playing outfield I guess?

The pieces just fit better this way.
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:12 PM   #325
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According to my scientific scouting and time travel, aka way too much The Show 22, O’Neil is going to fall off a cliff, Bader never really learns to hit much, speed and defense are elite but Carlson always turns into Mickey Mantle around age 27.

Hold on to Carlson, you’re welcome /sarcasm/
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:14 PM   #326
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:17 PM   #327
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You don't think that had already been answered? Maybe not for some teams, but certainly for many.

His 2019 season where he put up an .866 OPS and 20 rd homers (w/ the 'Coors Hangover' weighing that down) was an extremely loud indicator, was it not?

And the 'prospects' the Cardinals gave up weren't for Arenado - they were for the $50 million offset. And even then, they didn't have anything nearing that sort of surplus value.
His career outside of Coors mirrored what he did last season at the plate. What he is doing this year is better than anything he ever did in Coors.

Outside of guys that are signing mega deals really early like Acuna, none of these contracts are tradeable. They all come with a huge negative value attached as soon as they are signed. The only player that actually ended with surplus value at the time his contract ended, off the top of my head, was Max Scherzer.

You are way underestimating the power of FA while simultaneously ignoring the hurdles of trading a mega deal and trying to use that as the barometer for what Arenado would fetch on the open market.
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:30 PM   #328
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His career outside of Coors mirrored what he did last season at the plate. What he is doing this year is better than anything he ever did in Coors.

Outside of guys that are signing mega deals really early like Acuna, none of these contracts are tradeable. They all come with a huge negative value attached as soon as they are signed. The only player that actually ended with surplus value at the time his contract ended, off the top of my head, was Max Scherzer.

You are way underestimating the power of FA while simultaneously ignoring the hurdles of trading a mega deal and trying to use that as the barometer for what Arenado would fetch on the open market.
His career numbers, yes - but his road performance improved year over year and 2019 demonstrated that he was a strong road performer even with the Coors hangover. That was a fine baseline.

Regarding the FA market - how many big spending teams are likely to be in at 3b? The Sox aren't gonna be. The Dodgers are likely to turn to Vargas. The Yankees are likely to turn to Volpe (w/ Peraza seemingly the better fit at SS). The Phillies and Mets are definite considerations but it seems likely that the Phillies are going to make a push for Trae Turner.

But admittedly it only takes 1 team. And maybe that 1 team is the Mets and maybe they offer him 7/$210. And if so - it's important to remember that the Cardinals presently have the best 3b prospect in baseball in their system. A guy who everyone expected to move to the OF this year but who hasn't. And Walker's played a solid 3b all year in Springfield. There's no reason at all to believe he can't stick there at least for the first several years of his career.

If Arenado opts out and frees up a $35 million salary slot and opens up 3b for Donovan for a season while Walker rounds into MLB form - I don't see the Cardinals having any problem with that at all. Walker becomes the long-term 3b solution with Burleson/Yepez as their fallback if Goldschmidt declines or requests a deal into his 40s.

They'll let him walk at that point.

I simply don't see that Arenado trade, which was essentially a salary dump for some fringe prospects, as a 'mega deal' that was loaded with hurdles anything beyond what offering him a big money FA contract would create. If teams weren't eager to acquire him w/ a deal that included 2 additional prime seasons at discount rates, I don't see why they'd be eager to give him the same AAV for 2 extra years at the decline stages of his career.

The Cardinals simply do not go beyond their 'comfort level' and frankly I think they view player value almost identically to me. In the trade discussion thread with Arenado I stated before any deal seemed likely that the Rox were about $50 million upside down in that deal and I said a trade would never get done because they wouldn't eat that kind of money. Well that turned out to be EXACTLY what the Cardinals insisted on and received. The Cardinals are risk averse as hell - but they're rational to a fault. There's nothing 'rational' about offering a an aggressive hitter a 7 year deal into his late 30s.

The Cardinals won't do it and that's fine. I'd rather keep him at responsible numbers but if the Mets or some other bottomless pit franchise want to go beyond that - let them.
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DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:33 PM   #329
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie Bunker View Post
According to my scientific scouting and time travel, aka way too much The Show 22, O’Neil is going to fall off a cliff, Bader never really learns to hit much, speed and defense are elite but Carlson always turns into Mickey Mantle around age 27.

Hold on to Carlson, you’re welcome /sarcasm/
I dumped Carlson for Trent Grisham in The Show 2021 and Carlson never amounted to a damn thing. Bader actually developed into a relatively useful hitter (moreso than Carlson, anyway).

I don't mind a kid learning on the job at all - a learning curve is expected. The problem is that the area where he most struggles (RHP with quality breaking stuff) is really a foundational thing for a corner OFer and it's an area where we've seen essentially zero growth since he came up.
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"When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 51,103
DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 07-09-2022, 12:48 PM   #330
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Haven't even payed attention this year and won't till Mo is gone. Shildt sucked ass but to make him the fall guy and keep mo was the last straw
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Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brother is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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