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Old 03-19-2022, 07:50 AM  
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***Official 2022 STL Cardinals Thread***

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For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.


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Old 07-18-2022, 09:21 AM   #406
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There is a scenario where a team like the Cardinals could get Soto. The move would be to unload the farm for him (Gorman, Liberatore, and a whole bunch more) and then take your 2 shots at a World Series title with him. Then trade him after those 2 shots (he would have 1 year remaining then) for as much as you can get back to replenish the assets originally given up. If it worked well, you could get a lot for that last season (or half season) of Soto.

It wouldnt be a long term acquisition, and would be risky, but a midmarket team might make that play.
There's an absolutely close to 0% chance the Cardinals go after Soto for a few reasons.

1. FO won't want to part to with what's needed to acquire him.
2. FO doesn't seem to want to spend that much $ on a player.
3. They could have signed Luis Robert and DeWitt was on record as saying the reason why is because they didn't want to pay him for a second contract.
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Old 07-18-2022, 09:30 AM   #407
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There's an absolutely close to 0% chance the Cardinals go after Soto for a few reasons.

1. FO won't want to part to with what's needed to acquire him.
2. FO doesn't seem to want to spend that much $ on a player.
3. They could have signed Luis Robert and DeWitt was on record as saying the reason why is because they didn't want to pay him for a second contract.
"We pay him, then if he's good we have to pay him again..." Mozeliak doubled down on it a few weeks later lamenting that all that money would just get the player signed - he'd still be able to go to arbitration, FA, etc...

The Luis Robert saga was when Dewitt and company just took the mask right off and made it clear they simply don't care that much about trying to win a championship.

And it was also the clearest demonstration yet of just how well Mozeliak knows the market. He publicized an an offer that was like 98% of what Robert signed for. And yet his owner flat out stated it was the SECOND contract that spooked them. So it clearly wasn't the extra million or so it would've taken to close the deal on the first one. Mozeliak bid what he bid because he KNEW it wouldn't get the job done.

The Luis Robert experience exposed this entire front office for what it truly is. And they haven't made any effort to hide from it since.
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Old 07-18-2022, 09:57 AM   #408
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What I'm suggesting is pay the full fortune to get him now, use him this season and next hoping to win a title, then trade his last year to the team that's ready to open the coffers.

He is only in arbitration now so the payroll cost would be low.

So you pay X to land him, then trade him either in the offseason or trade deadline when he is on his last year for Y return.

X would be greater than Y, but possibly not by that much. Cause 1 year of Soto is gonna get you a hefty return on the back end.

I dont think it will actually happen that way, and if it does, the Cards are just one of several teams that could do it. But I read about this scenario in a MLBTR chat and so I couldnt help but post about it here to look savvy.
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Old 07-18-2022, 10:27 AM   #409
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch View Post
What I'm suggesting is pay the full fortune to get him now, use him this season and next hoping to win a title, then trade his last year to the team that's ready to open the coffers.

He is only in arbitration now so the payroll cost would be low.

So you pay X to land him, then trade him either in the offseason or trade deadline when he is on his last year for Y return.

X would be greater than Y, but possibly not by that much. Cause 1 year of Soto is gonna get you a hefty return on the back end.

I dont think it will actually happen that way, and if it does, the Cards are just one of several teams that could do it. But I read about this scenario in a MLBTR chat and so I couldnt help but post about it here to look savvy.
Uh.

His arb2 salary smashed the record. He's making $17.1 million this year. And he's a Super 2 guy so his Arb 3 and 4 years are gonna be MASSIVE. Betts presently has the record at $27 million. I'm guessing Soto gets $30 in his final year of eligibility and probably about $25 in the year prior.

So the payroll hit is gonna be in the $50-55 million range over the next two seasons. Surplus value on that if he hits like he can hit is probably $35-40 million over those two years but you get no additional 'franchise equity' boost because you can't count on building around him.

So you pay exclusively for the surplus value. That's 6-7 wins (my calculus is more conservative than sportswriters but also more in line for how teams actually pay for these guys).

The average WARP for a prospect ranked around Gorman was ranked is going to be in the 18-20 range. Now that's over his complete 6 years so that figure won't be pure surplus. Over the first 3 years you figure on a guy getting about 1/3 of that figure - so in terms of pure surplus (when he's cheap pre-arb) you're looking at about 6-7 WAR.

For JUST those two+ seasons at his likely salary level, you're looking at a surplus value proposition of roughly Nolan Gorman.

There is just a zero percent chance the Nationals trade him for that. And the 'full freight' cost you're talking about is going to be greater than the Cardinals can (or probably should) be willing to stomach for those 2 years. Walker/Winn/Gorman will DWARF that surplus value over their 6 years of control.

If you can extend him - do what it takes. If you can't, sit it out or maybe offer them Gorman and a second arm (a McGreevy sort).

I don't know that either of those scenarios are terribly realistic.
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Old 07-18-2022, 10:43 AM   #410
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I dont think it is terribly realistic but a guy like Jerry Dipoto might try it. The best case scenario here is:

Pay a FORTUNE for Soto, then win both the 2022 and 2023 World Series with him as your main star. He wins two WS MVPs and his legend (and trade value along with it) explodes.

Then heading into 2024, his last year of team control, trade that stud WS hero. You could land a FORTUNE in that trade.

Net net, you get about just as many huge prospects back as you gave up, and you have two rings and a case for the Hall of Fame earned in the interim.

The worst case scenario is he gets hurt or just flops, and you barely get anything back in 2024, and you never won shit in the process. No HOF there - thats due cause for termination.

So the whole thing would be a huge gamble but Jerry Dipoto might be degen enough to go for it. I dont know about the Cardinals - I cant claim to be an expert on the Cards by any means.

Interesting to think about anyway.
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Old 07-18-2022, 10:54 AM   #411
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If you're the Mariners and you can get him for Marte, Brash and say Hancock (or Stoudt) then I guess it's worth the effort.

Marte and Brash just have MASSIVE red flags as prospects. Huge ceilings, but they essentially have no floor. And both of them are spinning their wheels quite a bit this year.

Hancock has lost a little prospect steam this year whereas Stoudt seems to be gaining momentum (well, not lately, but he was through the spring), but neither have both juice and pedigree (like, say, George Kirby). So you can afford to dangle one of those 2 in that sort of deal.

But I don't think the Nationals take it. And that's probably about as far extended as any team would get. They'd have to believe a great deal in Marte and he's kinda stalled a bit in A+ this year. That whole trio of hot-shit shortstop prospects from last season (Marte, Luciano and Volpe) have all plateaued this season so any of their teams are likely better served holding them because I don't think they'll get the value they want.

But if any of them can headline a Soto rental - sure, pull that trigger.
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Old 07-18-2022, 11:02 AM   #412
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If you're the Mariners and you can get him for Marte, Brash and say Hancock (or Stoudt) then I guess it's worth the effort.

Marte and Brash just have MASSIVE red flags as prospects. Huge ceilings, but they essentially have no floor. And both of them are spinning their wheels quite a bit this year.

Hancock has lost a little prospect steam this year whereas Stoudt seems to be gaining momentum (well, not lately, but he was through the spring), but neither have both juice and pedigree (like, say, George Kirby). So you can afford to dangle one of those 2 in that sort of deal.

But I don't think the Nationals take it. And that's probably about as far extended as any team would get. They'd have to believe a great deal in Marte and he's kinda stalled a bit in A+ this year. That whole trio of hot-shit shortstop prospects from last season (Marte, Luciano and Volpe) have all plateaued this season so any of their teams are likely better served holding them because I don't think they'll get the value they want.

But if any of them can headline a Soto rental - sure, pull that trigger.
So you're opinion on this is that the players we would have to give up can produce the same WAR over the next 2.5 years. So unless you are resigning him to a long term contract, which we all agree, Mo won't offer an extension he will take. It's not a good deal for us.
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Old 07-18-2022, 11:06 AM   #413
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So you're opinion on this is that the players we would have to give up can produce the same WAR over the next 2.5 years. So unless you are resigning him to a long term contract, which we all agree, Mo won't offer an extension he will take. It's not a good deal for us.
I'm not sure they can offer the same WAR over the next 2.5 years, no. I mean certainly not on a per/AB basis for sure. So when you figure in organizational depth that would back-fill around those 'lost' ABs, the 'marginal' wins provided by Soto over the lost players will probably be a bit higher until you consider the opportunity cost of the lost salary.

I'm saying they will probably offer similar surplus WAR (when accounting for his arb salaries in excess of $50 million) over the next 2.5 years but with the added benefit of having 3.5+ more years of team control/player thereafter.

And if you're a team that's unwilling to pay for Soto, then you're unwilling to pay for ANY star. So at that point, surplus value has to continue to rule the day.
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Old 07-18-2022, 11:39 AM   #414
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Bit of an aside but DJ I think you are actually underestimating what some team will give up to trade for Soto. This is gonna be like the Herschel Walker trade. A player this good, this young, with this much team control remaining just doesnt come available for trade very often. This is unprecedented really.

For that reason I dont think he is going anywhere this trading deadline. I think it will be the offseason near the winter meetings. This transaction will define the careers of Mike Rizzo and whoever the counterparty ends up being.
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Old 07-18-2022, 12:44 PM   #415
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Cardinals take Pete Hansen, lefty SP out of UT with their third round pick.

Pretty much seems to be the same as their first two guys. Lefty with plus command (better command than their first two picks) but fringe fastball (worse velocity than their first two) and a big breaker.

I can’t quite understand this thought process. They did this like 8 years ago when they went crazy on lefty pitchers and NONE of them hit.
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Old 07-18-2022, 02:03 PM   #416
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Entire Cardinals draft so far has been college kids.

3 lefty starters, a righty starter, 2 LHH outfielders and a LHH catcher.

I hate it when they have these drafts. Happens every few years when they just get stuck in a rut and it always gives me the impression they just didn't have a very good feel for the draft.

And it usually doesn't work out terribly well. They tend to be limited in volume as well as impact. Very few contributors who never do much more than flutter around the margins of the roster.

And it doesn't even matter what they get super-focused on. They just emphasize a couple of areas, beat them to death and then the draft just kinda putters out...
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Old 07-18-2022, 02:39 PM   #417
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Looks like the Royals have also gone entirely with college players this year.

I mean...I guess there's some reason for that. Definitely doesn't feel like something you see very often and yet both teams located in Missouri have done so. I'm sure another team or two has as well.

Wonder why that is? It's not typical that the college ranks would just be more loaded than HS. COVID eligibility year thing, I wonder?
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Old 07-18-2022, 02:46 PM   #418
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Royals -- All College
Cards -- All College
Orioles -- 1.1 was HS, all the rest College
Chisox -- 1.26 HS, rest college
Reds -- 1.32 HS, rest college
Tigers -- All college
Astros -- All College
Angels-- All college
Twins -- All College
Yankees -- All College
Giants -- All College


Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers only drafted 1 HS player and I saw 6 other teams who only drafted 2.

So this is just a REALLY college heavy draft. 2/3 of the teams in the draft appear to have drafted 2 or fewer prep players through 9 rounds.

I just don't feel like that's common at all.
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Old 07-18-2022, 05:09 PM   #419
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Weird that it's all most lefties with college pitchers with higher floors but lower ceilings. Makes it seem that they are about to make some deals and want some quick available help in the next 1-2 years.
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Old 07-18-2022, 06:27 PM   #420
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Entire Cardinals draft so far has been college kids.

3 lefty starters, a righty starter, 2 LHH outfielders and a LHH catcher.

I hate it when they have these drafts. Happens every few years when they just get stuck in a rut and it always gives me the impression they just didn't have a very good feel for the draft.

And it usually doesn't work out terribly well. They tend to be limited in volume as well as impact. Very few contributors who never do much more than flutter around the margins of the roster.

And it doesn't even matter what they get super-focused on. They just emphasize a couple of areas, beat them to death and then the draft just kinda putters out...
They are going to have a glut of junk baller lefty pitchers, Mo is desperately searching for the next Tom Glavine.
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