Mock Draft 1/24/2020

[kccrow]

Have to get one in here before the Super Bowl just so that I can say that the Chiefs WIN the Super Bowl and will be picking 32nd in the draft!

On with it...
Chiefs franchise tag Chris Jones then trade to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 1st round pick, #14 overall, in 2020 and a conditional 2021 3rd round pick. Jones is a generational talent and brings so much to the table for KC, but his price tag will be exceptionally high. He'll bring much more in return than a guy like Watkins, and the basis here is that it really comes down to keeping Jones or Watkins. The writing seems on the wall early on as the Chiefs have already been shopping college DTs.

Chiefs extend Sammy Watkins for 2 years $21.0m including $6.0m signing bonus and converting $12.0m of his 2020 salary to signing bonus creating cap hits of $15.0m, $13.0m and $14.0m in 2020-2022 which frees up $6.0m of cap space in 2020. If the Chiefs retain Jones, it's a foregone conclusion that Watkins is gone. There's just no way to realistically keep both of them and fill out this roster.

Chiefs cut OL Cameron Erving and P Dustin Colquitt freeing up $4.60m in cap space

Chiefs have $30.8m in projected cap space

ERFA tender WR Marcus Kemp, OL Andrew Wylie, and TE Deon Yelder
Re-sign to veteran minimum deals S Jordan Lucas, FB Anthony Sherman, OG Stefen Wisniewski, TE Blake Bell, DT Mike Pennel, LB Reggie Ragland
Re-sign Emmanuel Ogbah to 3-year, $18.0m including $6.0 signing bonus (sim A. Okafor)
Re-sign Bashaud Breeland to 3-year, $27.0m deal including $3.0 signing bonus, $3.5m fully guaranteed salary in 2020, and $3.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 (sim P. Amukamara)
Pick up 5th-year option on Patrick Mahomes then work out a 4-year extension creating new money of $179.1m with $99.6 in new guarantees. The total deal becomes 6 years, $182.4m with $100.3m guaranteed.
Sign FA CB Mackensie Alexander to 1-year $2.00m deal fully guaranteed (sim M. Claiborne, B. Breeland)
Sign FA LB Nick Kwiatkoski to 3-year $9.0m deal including $3.0m signing bonus (sim C. Jones)

Approximate cap before draft $8.3m

Draft:

1 (f/TB) - DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (6'6" 310)
Drafting Kinlaw here sure seems like a lateral move after shipping away Chris Jones, but you're basically getting a carbon copy of Jones for 5 years on a rookie deal which is going to become increasingly important for the Chiefs going into the Mahomes deal. Kinlaw is extremely quick off the ball and very disruptive. Whether or not he can live up to the lofty status of Jones will remain to be seen, but he should have an immediate impact on Sundays as a gap-penetrating 3-tech.
1 - RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State (5'10" 217)
If you asked me one player that could make the absolute biggest impact for KC in 2020, it'd be Dobbins. He's quick, fast, thick, balanced, picks up blitzes, and is an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. Point is, he's everything you want in an NFL running back and I saw no other back in college football play with as much passion as this kid. Dobbins brings everything to the table that KC lost when they cut Kareem Hunt and would do much to take constant pressure off of Patrick Mahomes.
2 (f/SF) - CB Troy Pride, Jr., Notre Dame (6'0" 190)
Pride is a hell of a corner, to be honest, but what really attracts me most is his speed and quickness to stick with any route. He's not going to wow you as a ballhawk or tackler but he's not bad at either and he's as sound as it gets playing his man. There's a lot of receiver talent in this draft and a guy like Ruggs could end up in Denver, so it'll be important to have a guy like Pride that can keep pace.
3 - OC Matt Hennessy, Temple (6'4" 295)
Hennessy reminds me a ton of a young Jason Kelce with his movement skills and ability to stone opponents in pass protection. His mental processing and overall intelligence are second to none in this draft. I think Reid is really going to like this kid a ton. My only concern is his 2019 concussion, and it's been as big a reason as any I've kept him out of mocks to date, but if it checks out as a non-recurring issue for him then I'm not as worried. This is a guy I think has the opportunity to be one of the best in the game.
4 - FS K'Von Wallace, Clemson (5'11" 205)
Very much a Honey Badger type of player in that he does so many things solidly on the field from coverage to tackling to ball awareness. Probably the most consistent player in Clemson's back end. He doesn't have elite size or speed but he gets it done and plays with emotion.
5 - WR Van Jefferson, Florida (6'2" 197)
I really wanted to sneak Texas A&M's Quartney Davis into this mock somewhere but he's going earlier than the 5th round. That said, I'm still really high on Van Jefferson and his ability to run routes and separate. He's a draft, use, and dispose of type receiver because he'll be a 24-year-old rookie. That said, his routes, hands, and overall athleticism fit well with what KC likes from their 4th receiver.

QB: P. Mahomes, K. Shurmur
RB: J. Dobbins, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, D. Thompson
FB: A. Sherman
WR: T. Hill, S. Watkins, M. Hardman, B. Pringle, V. Jefferson, M. Kemp, F. Davis
TE: T. Kelce, B. Bell, D. Yelder
OL: E. Fisher, M. Rankin, M. Hennessy, L. Duvernay-Tardif, M. Schwartz, S. Wisniewski, A. Reiter, A. Wylie, N. Allegretti, J. Barton
DE: F. Clark, E. Ogbah, A. Okafor, T. Kpassagnon, D. Harris
DT: D. Nnadi, J. Kinlaw, K. Saunders, M. Pennel, B. Speaks
LB: D. Wilson, N. Kwiatkoski, A. Hitchens, R. Ragland, B. Niemann
CB: B. Breeland, C. Ward, T. Pride, M. Alexander, R. Fenton, A. Brown
S: T. Mathieu, J. Thornhill, D. Sorensen, K. Wallace, J. Lucas, A. Watts
ST: H. Butker, Some UDFA Punter, J. Winchester.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The league is certainly trending to those hybrid safety/linebacker types. I think that guy for us right now is Sorensen in alot of spots. I think it hurts run defense a tad, but it's a benefit. A guy like Simmons out of Clemson is more of a Leonard to me because both are a solid 15 pounds heavier than Davis-Gaither. If he can bulk up and maintain that play speed, I don't have an issue with it. The guys I don't like early, like Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray are guys like that too but they have nowhere near the talent Simmons does and neither does Davis-Gaither. I just don't think they are a player you spend a 1st round pick on. A third-round pick? Absolutely not an issue. I think you can develop these guys and use them. The Chiefs drafted O'Daniel to be that type of guy, but it just doesn't look like he's panning out.

He measured in at 6-2/220 at the senior bowl, which is where I believe Leonard was pre-draft.

I don’t think they’d have to spend more than a third on him right now. Combine might change that.

I just think having a WLB who has sideline to sideline range and is good in coverage would be a tremendous boost for this defense. Sorenson’s role is what I could see for Davis-Gaither; he has has been effective for KC playing that kind of hybrid S/LB despite not being tremendous athletically.

Simmons is listed at 6-4, 230. Leonard is now listed at 6-2, 230. I don’t think the weight difference is a huge detractor.

[duncan_idaho]

Anyway, I like this mock.

I’m not 100 percent sold on spending the first on Dobbins - RB is so deep in this draft. But I wouldn’t be disappointed with it.

Think Tampa is the trade partner that makes the most sense, and agree that Kinlaw is the target if they move Jones. They have to supplement the DL if they trade Jones, and he’s the best bet. Gross-Matos or AJ Epenesa also make some sense.

Do you think 1.14 and a future pick is enough for Jones? Considering the compensation for Clark I thought they might be able to get a 2020 4th tacked on, at least.

[O.city]

I’d just keep jones and hope to keep drafting well

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’d just keep jones and hope to keep drafting well

That means either cutting or extending Watkins and possibly cutting Hitchens, too.

Not impossible, just leaves the margin for error very thin.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That means either cutting or extending Watkins and possibly cutting Hitchens, too.

Not impossible, just leaves the margin for error very thin.

I’d trade jones for both those guys though so I’m good with that

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Chargem

That's interesting Crow, if the cap rises as predicted with the new CBA and gambling money, I can see the Chiefs only having 2 tough years in the middle of the contract before the cap rises to the point that Mahomes contract is no longer a significant portion of it.

Mahomes seems to have smart people around him. I'm guessing they won't let him go too long into the new cap calculations with a legacy contract. I'm betting he signs a shorter contract.

[kcclone]

I will leave the players and order to the guys that get paid to watch and identify talent, but I see the following as our main needs in this draft:



-LB
-TE
-RB
-OL
-DE
-CB

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by kcclone

I will leave the players and order to the guys that get paid to watch and identify talent, but I see the following as our main needs in this draft:



-LB
-TE
-RB
-OL
-DE
-CB

I hope those aren't in order of priority

[kcclone]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I hope those aren't in order of priority

I guess you didn't read my post before asking that question. I'll leave that to the guys that get paid to figure that out.