Mathieu v. Ward: Who Ya Got?

[Direckshun]

I think we all doubt the Chiefs can re-sign both of these players.

So if you had to re-sign either of these players this coming offseason and let the other walk, which one and why?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

let me take a different angle here.

Where have the Chiefs prioritized defensively since Veach took over?

Clark, Mathieu, Hitchens, Jones are your big money contracts. Half of your front four, MLB, Safety/slot.

In the draft: Thornhill, Gay, Bolton, Speaks (!), a FS, two LB'ers, and a tweener defensive lineman, all second rounders when we've only had two first rounders at all in that time, spent on Mahomes and Clyde. (That Speaks washed out doesn't matter, we're talking initial investments here.) 3rd rounders? Nnadi, DOD.

Now let's look at the CB room-
Ward, UDFA trade for Ehringer.
Fenton, 6th rounder.
Sneed, 4th rounder.
Hughes, trade for a 6th.
Baker, FA
Bootles 6th right?

So what does this tell us about the upcoming offseason?

KC prioritizes front to back and then inside out. Meaning, front 4 first, and then your inside players at LB and S with CB investment being lowest of the position groups.

Well, IF we continue the prior blueprint, we'll spend FA money on the front 4, as well as higher draft capital. Since we've spent two #2's at LB probably skip that this year, but the S position will need either a Mathieu re-signing or replacement, and a Sorensen replacement.

And Ward probably walks.

Maybe they change their tactics but that would fit what they've done so far.

I'd keep in mind Reid's overall mantra about DE's and CBs and figuring out the rest with regards to defense.

That said, I looked back to see if where we are now correlated to being cheap on CB throughout Reid's tenure to debunk or prove his mantra and gauge how KC approached the position overall.

Since Reid has been here, they've invested fairly heavily at DB in sheer volume. In terms of draft resources, they have 1 R1 (CB), 1 R2 (S), 3 R3 (3xCB), 3 R4 (1xCB, 1xS, 1 Hybrid) 1 R5 (S), 4 R6 (2xCB, 2xS), and 3 R7 (1xCB, 2xS). I'd say that's a fairly solid distribution and I'm actually surprised they got away with not spending much in rounds 1 and 2. In FA, they did spend a bit on Sean Smith (3 for 18) and Darrelle Revis (2 for 11 but he never counted too much of that because of late signing and early release), with only Tyrann being the big one.

Here's a transaction list:
2013 - Round 5 - Sanders Commings, S
2013 - Signed UFA Sean Smith, CB
2013 - Claimed off Waivers FA Ron Parker, S
2013 - Claimed off Waivers FA Marcus Cooper, CB
2013 - Signed UFA Husain Abdullah, S (re-signed 2014)
2013 - Signed UFA Quintin Demps, S
2013 - Signed UFA Dunta Robinson, CB
2014 - Round 3 - Phillip Gaines, CB
2014 - Signed UDFA Daniel Sorensen, S
2014 - Signed from BAL PS Jamell Fleming, CB
2014 - Signed UFA Kurt Coleman, S
2014 - Traded Rishaw Johnson, G for Kelcie McCray, S
2015 - Round 1 - Marcus Peters, CB (traded for 3rd in 2018)
2015 - Round 3 - Steven Nelson, CB
2015 - Signed UFA Tyvon Branch, S
2016 - Round 3 - KeiVarae Russell, CB
2016 - Round 4 - Eric Murray, CB
2016 - Round 6 - D.J. White, CB
2016 - Signed UFA Terrance Mitchell, CB
2016 - Traded 2018 7th for Kenneth Acker, S
2017 - Round 6 - Leon McQuay, S
2017 - Signed UFA Keith Reaser, S
2017 - Signed UFA Steven Terrell, S
2017 - Signed UFA Darrelle Revis, CB (late Nov)
2018 - Round 4 - Armani Watts, S
2018 - Traded Parker Ehinger, OG for Charvarius Ward, CB
2018 - Traded Alex Smith, QB for 2018 3rd and Kendall Fuller, CB
2018 - Signed UFA Orlando Scandrick, CB
2018 - Traded 2020 7th for Jordan Lucas, S
2019 - Round 2 - Juan Thornhill, S
2019 - Round 6 - Rashad Fenton, CB
2019 - Signed UFA Tyrann Mathieu, S
2019 - Signed UFA Bashaud Breeland, CB (re-signed 2020)
2019 - Signed UFA Morris Claiborne, CB
2020 - Round 4 - L'Jarius Sneed, CB/S
2020 - Round 7 - Thakarius Keyes, CB
2020 - Signed UFA Deandre Baker, CB
2021 - Traded 2022 6th for 2022 7th and Mike Hughes, CB

What's clear is that they haven't really swayed hard with resources one way or the other during Reid's tenure if we're looking at the argument for an "inside-out" or "outside-in" preference. Draft spending early favors CB while they got a lot of bang for their buck in FA at S and decent returns at CB.

In terms of Bart only, yes, there's a bit more of a tendency to acquire safeties with more resources (higher draft picks and bigger FA contracts). That said, he's never had a pure need at CB. He had Steven Nelson and Kendall Fuller to start in 2018 with a vet in Scandrick while Ward developed. He got a deal on Breeland in 2019 to go with Fuller and a vet in Claiborne while Ward developed more and got more reps. They keep Breeland to start with Ward in 20 while Sneed and Fenton are developing, and the trend continues. It's a nice place to be.

The question for 2022 will be if they let Ward walk, is Fenton ready to step in and start like Ward did after 2 years of seasoning (I think yes), and can they add another cheap vet like they continue to do year after year (also, I think yes)? This issue is they don't have that guy developing underneath yet, that they'd have to hit on in the draft, which I'd think they could do again as well. That means CB could continue to churn, if they so choose, with developing guys for 2 years underneath established starters. That said, you limit your ability to move Sneed around by going this route.

As for S, they've had a lot of luck pre-Veach in signing guys off the street on modest deals and getting solid returns for a year. I don't know that you have to break the bank on a guy like Mathieu to have a net positive there. I feel as though Mathieu is a luxury item in as much as re-signing Ward to keep Sneed mobile is a luxury.

If I'm picking my luxury, I'd choose to spend less on Ward (more likely than not) because Sneed can give me a lot of what Mathieu does and I kind of kill two birds with one stone. Like Meck, I don't feel like signing either is a "necessity."

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Charvarius Ward allowed just 2 receptions for 19 yards on 7 targets as the nearest defender in the #Chiefs 22-9 victory over the Broncos.

Ward has allowed the lowest completion percentage (40.0%) this season among DB (min. 40 targets).#DENvsKC | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/yfsOgkVfye

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 6, 2021

.

[DJ's left nut]

He's gonna get paid. And he'd cost the same as OBJ to tag.

Seems like we're looking at a 3rd round comp pick in all probability. Damn shame to see him turn a corner here and then watch him spend his prime in another uniform. He's really capitalized on that promise we saw on him the last several years. And he's a physical DB that can also operate in space. That's pretty rare.

We'll miss him in a big way, IMO. But he's just played so well this year that I can't see how we could end up affording him. Really wish we'd have gotten an extension done for him last off-season. That was a priority move for me and it just didn't seem that there was interest there.

[Direckshun]

https://www.chiefs.com/news/mike-hug...he-week-honors

Is it possible that Hughes is our Ward replacement?

[Nightfyre]

They are both UFA, so no?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

They are both UFA, so no?

Hughes is not going to be expensive. He was benched partway through the season.

We probably can't expect him to match his Raiders level of productivity going forward, but he plays at, say, 80% of that ability, then we can Moneyball this thing.

Hughes could ostensibly give you 85%-90% of what Ward gives you at 1/3 the cost.

I think you take that deal (assuming Hughes' strong play continues). I still think you make a play in free agency or the draft for insurance. But he gives you something to work with if you don't.

[RunKC]

Oh

Resign 35

— Tyrann Mathieu (@Mathieu_Era) December 14, 2021

[Direckshun]

That's not the first time Mathieu has gone to the Twitter-mat for Ward.