Mock (11/13)

[Direckshun]

Let's wheel and deal.

1. The Chiefs are defeated in the Super Bowl by the New Orleans Saints in a shootout. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach are retained, as is DC Bob Sutton.

2. The Chiefs cut S Eric Berry and S Daniel Sorensen.

3. The Chiefs trade OG Luvarney Duvarney-Tardif to your mother's favorite team for a 2020 2nd round pick.

4. The Chiefs extend WR Tyreek Hill for 4 years, $60m.

5. The Chiefs re-sign: WR De'Anthony Thomas to 2 years, $6m; C Jordan Devey to 3 year, $12m; OLB Dee Ford to 5 year, $70m; CB Orlando Scandrick to 1 year, $3m.

6. The Chiefs re-sign to minimal deals: RB Damien Williams, FB Anthony Sherman, TE Demetrius Harris, OG Jeff Allen, DE Jarvis Jenkins

7. The Chiefs tender: WR Marcus Kemp, C Austin Reiter, ILB Terrance Smith, S Jordan Lucas, K Harrison Butker

8. The Chiefs let walk: RB Spencer Ware, WR Chris Conley, C Mitch Morse, DE Allen Bailey, CB Steven Nelson, S Ron Parker

9. The Chiefs sign OT Jake Fisher (Bengals) to 1 year, $4m; DE Henry Anderson (Colts) for 2 years, $12m.

10. The Chiefs are selecting 31st. They are not in the hunt for any compensatory picks.

11. They are in the hunt for as many as 4 compensatory picks in 2020 (Ware, Conley, Morse, Bailey, Nelson).

The Selections:

The Chiefs trade their 1st, the Marcus Peters 2nd, and the Laurent Duvarney-Tardift 2nd in 2020 for the 12th overall selection.
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson

As with the Breeland Speaks pick, everybody and their mother will call this a reach. As with the Breeland Speaks pick, the Chiefs will have taken someone who doesn't look immediately ready to start. And as with Breeland Speaks, the Chiefs will toss Mullen out there early and often to get him as seasoned as possible for the postseason.

But Mullen is less like Breeland Speaks, and more like Dee Ford. At 6'1", he has the legit potential to run a 4.3, and the Chiefs gotta like his ability to mirror. He will require some sculpting, but the Chiefs have Al Harris, one of the best defensive backs coaches in the NFL. He has gotten the absolute most out of Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick. He'll have Mullen playing his best ball by January, which is all this Chiefs team cares about.

2. S Taylor Rapp, Washington

The Chiefs let Berry, Sorensen, and Parker walk in this offseason projection, ostensibly because the Chiefs see Armani Watts as a legit starter in the NFL and their strong performance in much of 2019 without Sorensen or Berry shows that they are simply not valuable enough to justify their contracts, beloved though they are. Jordan Lucas and Eric Murray are good players but best relegated to rotational players, so the Chiefs take a swing in the 2nd on Rapp.

Rapp is utilized in every possible way a safety can play in Washington's defense, and is one of the most pro-ready prospects in the draft. He is technically sound, has a great eye in diagnosing plays, and can play some coverage in the role that Ron Parker has largely failed at this year.

3. DE Corbin Kaufusi, BYU

Get used to seeing this guy's name, as Andy Reid loves kids from this area and Brett Veach, like John Dorsey before him, can be seduced by measurables and a great work ethic. The Chiefs consider trading up for Kaufusi if they have to.

In this hypothetical draft, they don't have to. Kaufusi would be an excellent developmental prospect for Britt Reid, who really has an ability to coach these guys up. Thanks to the acquisition of Henry Anderson, the Chiefs can give Kaufusi a couple years to grow, though he may be pushing for a starter job by the end of the year. What a luxury this coaching staff is.

5. S Antoine Brooks Jr., Maryland

The Chiefs continue the hardcore youth movement at safety. Brooks is undersized by an incredible heavy hitter. He is, essentially, Kurt Coleman.

6. RB Travis Homer, Miami
7. DE Walter Palmore, Missouri

Roster:

QB: Mahomes, Henne, Litton
RB: Hunt, Williams, Homer, Williams
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Watkins, Robinson, Thomas, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Harris

LT: Fisher, Fisher
LG: Erving, Allen
C: Devey, Reiter
RG: Wylie, McKenzie
RT: Schwartz, Fisher

DE: Jones, Jenkins
NT: Nnadi, Williams, Palmore
DE: Anderson, Kaufusi

OLB: Ford, Speaks
ILB: O'Daniel, Ragland, Smith
ILB: Hitchens, Niemann
OLB: Houston, Kpassagnon

CB: Fuller, Mullen, Scandrick, Dean, Smith
S: Watts, Rapp, Lucas, Murray, Brooks

K: Butker
P: Colquitt
LS: Winchester

[kccrow]

So you're of the opinion that ILB isn't a tremendous need and are willing to go into 2019 with he shit stack the Chiefs have now? Interesting. There are two players I've been looking at of late that are generating some 1st round buzz and I seen one of them mocked to KC recently. Those two players are OC Elgton Jenkins and ILB Te'Von Coney.

I figure I might as well talk about them here rather than another thread because they both fit against the approach you've taken here. On Jenkins, I'm kind of on the same train of thought you are, with settling for Reiter and a veteran like Devey. That said, Andy does like a lot more athleticism at the position having been a part of drafting Morse and Jason Kelce at the position. Jenkins does, absolutely, fit the narrative in terms of being that type of center that can get out and block in space. That said, neither was anything near a round 1 pick. I'd put more stock into him looking at an athletic guy late like Sean Rawlings out of Mississippi who reminds me a lot of Kelce coming out.

Moving onto Coney, I think he's a guy that really fits a KC early need. I don't know that you can walk into next season without attempting to make a significant upgrade at ILB. I see it as the weakest link of the defense, far worse than CB or S at this point. The coverage breakdowns in the shallow middle of the field are horrendous. The inability to come up and fill gaps and make tackles in the backfield is troubling. This defense is kind of a ship without a rudder and lacks a tone-setter. I don't know that Coney is a round 1 pick, but I do know I've watched less talented players go in round 1 based on athleticism and I'd be willing to wager Coney will be in that 4.6 area. I think he's more of a come up and get him in 2 guy. In any event, I think you need to come away with a day 2 talent at a minimum at the position. I'd love to say it's a position you could look at again in FA, but history doesn't really bode well there. It doesn't happen often that an ILB hits FA and actually ends up being a good pickup. The few that look like good options and are paper FAs now probably won't hit the market, such as CJ Mosely and Jordan Hicks.

I do like the direction overall, with all that said. CB and S are big needs and pretty well have to be addressed this year. Adding a DE to replace Bailey is critical, but there are a ton of options there in FA and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the approach Veach takes there. I don't think you'll be getting a world beater, but you probably could get as serviceable a guy as any mid-round pick. I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bailey retained on a 3-year deal but he runs too hot and cold for my tastes.

Onto the actual picks, I like them. I don't think Mullen is a CB I'd trade very far up for, and certainly not into the top 12. You easily have Murphy, Baker, and Williams ahead of him so I don't think you have to get up there. Hell, you can move up 8-9 slots with a 3rd rounder and that will probably put you easily in range of him.

Taylor Rapp, I really like him a bunch. He's probably my favorite safety in this class. I just have a hard time projecting him. I think he's an end of 1 guy, to be honest. I don't think he'll be around at the end of 2 though. The more I've been thinking about the couple good safeties in this class, the more I think Veach will have to be aggressive to get one and that includes the one I've mocked in Abram. That said, FA could be a major factor at the position with some good stop-gaps looking to be available.

I'm not at all on board with the idea of trading Duvernay-Tardif. Just like you talked about putting those years into Ford and him being a good pass rusher that you have to retain, Tardif is a guy you put those years into and is one of the best guards in football right now. He's the mobile, nasty type that Reid covets. He's going nowhere, I'd bank on it.

Altogether, I feel like Veach left this team with some major holes unfilled last offseason on defense and now they are compounded heavily with the addition of new ones. It's going to be interesting to see how he attacks this.

[O.city]

They've gotta get a top notch corner for sure, but one thing that sneaky might be a priority is a WR. With Watkins out the guys behind him struggle to get open.

[Hoover]

So you trade LDT, who is not only good, but on a team friendly contract. Let Morse walk. Spend minimal dollars on retaining Reiter, and give a 1 year contract to Jake Fisher.

Then go into the draft and not take a single offensive lineman?

Sorry, bu that's just ****ing stupid.

We finally have an al world QB and all world RB and you want to go cheap on the oline?

I know there is this sense around this place that we can put anyone at center and do fine, but I don't think thats accurate. Get Mahomes a center he can play with for a while and if you are going to plug and play at an oline position do it at right guard, which we have been doing for years now.

I'm all about drafting defense, especially in the early rounds, but its stupid to not take some interior linemen starting in round 3 or 4.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by kccrow

So you're of the opinion that ILB isn't a tremendous need and are willing to go into 2019 with he shit stack the Chiefs have now? Interesting. There are two players I've been looking at of late that are generating some 1st round buzz and I seen one of them mocked to KC recently. Those two players are OC Elgton Jenkins and ILB Te'Von Coney.

I figure I might as well talk about them here rather than another thread because they both fit against the approach you've taken here. On Jenkins, I'm kind of on the same train of thought you are, with settling for Reiter and a veteran like Devey. That said, Andy does like a lot more athleticism at the position having been a part of drafting Morse and Jason Kelce at the position. Jenkins does, absolutely, fit the narrative in terms of being that type of center that can get out and block in space. That said, neither was anything near a round 1 pick. I'd put more stock into him looking at an athletic guy late like Sean Rawlings out of Mississippi who reminds me a lot of Kelce coming out.

Moving onto Coney, I think he's a guy that really fits a KC early need. I don't know that you can walk into next season without attempting to make a significant upgrade at ILB. I see it as the weakest link of the defense, far worse than CB or S at this point. The coverage breakdowns in the shallow middle of the field are horrendous. The inability to come up and fill gaps and make tackles in the backfield is troubling. This defense is kind of a ship without a rudder and lacks a tone-setter. I don't know that Coney is a round 1 pick, but I do know I've watched less talented players go in round 1 based on athleticism and I'd be willing to wager Coney will be in that 4.6 area. I think he's more of a come up and get him in 2 guy. In any event, I think you need to come away with a day 2 talent at a minimum at the position. I'd love to say it's a position you could look at again in FA, but history doesn't really bode well there. It doesn't happen often that an ILB hits FA and actually ends up being a good pickup. The few that look like good options and are paper FAs now probably won't hit the market, such as CJ Mosely and Jordan Hicks.

I do like the direction overall, with all that said. CB and S are big needs and pretty well have to be addressed this year. Adding a DE to replace Bailey is critical, but there are a ton of options there in FA and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the approach Veach takes there. I don't think you'll be getting a world beater, but you probably could get as serviceable a guy as any mid-round pick. I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bailey retained on a 3-year deal but he runs too hot and cold for my tastes.

Onto the actual picks, I like them. I don't think Mullen is a CB I'd trade very far up for, and certainly not into the top 12. You easily have Murphy, Baker, and Williams ahead of him so I don't think you have to get up there. Hell, you can move up 8-9 slots with a 3rd rounder and that will probably put you easily in range of him.

Taylor Rapp, I really like him a bunch. He's probably my favorite safety in this class. I just have a hard time projecting him. I think he's an end of 1 guy, to be honest. I don't think he'll be around at the end of 2 though. The more I've been thinking about the couple good safeties in this class, the more I think Veach will have to be aggressive to get one and that includes the one I've mocked in Abram. That said, FA could be a major factor at the position with some good stop-gaps looking to be available.

I'm not at all on board with the idea of trading Duvernay-Tardif. Just like you talked about putting those years into Ford and him being a good pass rusher that you have to retain, Tardif is a guy you put those years into and is one of the best guards in football right now. He's the mobile, nasty type that Reid covets. He's going nowhere, I'd bank on it.

Altogether, I feel like Veach left this team with some major holes unfilled last offseason on defense and now they are compounded heavily with the addition of new ones. It's going to be interesting to see how he attacks this.

To address your points:

I don't think ILB is as much of a need as others on this site do. I do think it's our weakest spot on defenses and may ultimately be our demise in this year's playoffs, but I think the ILBs we have this year will all be better next year.

* Hitchens will ostensibly be healthier and more physically fit
* O'Daniel will likely gain 10-15 pounds
* Ragland, blah, I still don't think is useful and in most mocks I've been cutting him and signing a thumper from somewhere else
* Smith is an acceptable stopgap, Ben Niemann will likely get better

The two players you need to improve are Hitchens and O'Daniel, and I believe they're going to be more physically ready with a year's worth of experience.

I also believe -- even though I cut Berry in this mock -- that Berry will be on this team in 2019 and that will help the ILBs as well, as he takes a ton of pressure off against tight ends, freeing the ILBs up to focus on RBs and the run game.

I think all your musings on the center position are reasonable.

Ultimately, I just don't think we have the resources to plug every hole, so I spend my priority resources on Ford and Hill. And I try to free up resources by ridding the team of two players that -- you're right -- the Chiefs will probably bring back for 2019 in Berry and LDT. I just think LDT can be replaced effectively because (a.) we already have, and (b.) Andy Heck is a goddamn monster of a coach. Guy has hit homeruns with every shred of talent we've given him.

With the top draft resources getting sucked up by the DL (which, if we let Bailey walk, will badly need an infusion of talent) and the secondary, I think that means you just bank on ILB improvement from the guys we already have.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Hoover

So you trade LDT, who is not only good, but on a team friendly contract. Let Morse walk. Spend minimal dollars on retaining Reiter, and give a 1 year contract to Jake Fisher.

Then go into the draft and not take a single offensive lineman?

Sorry, bu that's just ****ing stupid.

We finally have an al world QB and all world RB and you want to go cheap on the oline?

I know there is this sense around this place that we can put anyone at center and do fine, but I don't think thats accurate. Get Mahomes a center he can play with for a while and if you are going to plug and play at an oline position do it at right guard, which we have been doing for years now.

I'm all about drafting defense, especially in the early rounds, but its stupid to not take some interior linemen starting in round 3 or 4.

You could argue we're cheap on the OL right now. Our big contracts are tied up at tackle, and the interior line are all bargain bin guys. Obviously we still have a season to finish, but right now, they're getting the job done. Andy Heck has loaded our talent cupboard because he's a phenomenal OL coach.

As a result, that frees up resources you can invest in Hill, Ford, and maybe throw a little cash to bring back Allen Bailey or bring in Earl Thomas.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

You could argue we're cheap on the OL right now. Our big contracts are tied up at tackle, and the interior line are all bargain bin guys. Obviously we still have a season to finish, but right now, they're getting the job done. Andy Heck has loaded our talent cupboard because he's a phenomenal OL coach.

As a result, that frees up resources you can invest in Hill, Ford, and maybe throw a little cash to bring back Allen Bailey or bring in Earl Thomas.

My point is that you want to actually spend even less on the position group than we are spending now...

We have OC who is on a rookie contract. He was a 2nd round pick, that's not necessarily going cheap on that position. We paid LDT, that's not going cheap on that position. Our Its are on very friendly deals for what they are IMO. The only position that we are actually cheap on is RG.

My problem is that you want to invest even less.

We have the money to pay Hill and Ford and not gut the Oline like you are proposing. And really the only investment I think they should look at making is with draft capital in getting a center.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

To address your points:

I don't think ILB is as much of a need as others on this site do. I do think it's our weakest spot on defenses and may ultimately be our demise in this year's playoffs, but I think the ILBs we have this year will all be better next year.

* Hitchens will ostensibly be healthier and more physically fit
* O'Daniel will likely gain 10-15 pounds
* Ragland, blah, I still don't think is useful and in most mocks I've been cutting him and signing a thumper from somewhere else
* Smith is an acceptable stopgap, Ben Niemann will likely get better

The two players you need to improve are Hitchens and O'Daniel, and I believe they're going to be more physically ready with a year's worth of experience.

I also believe -- even though I cut Berry in this mock -- that Berry will be on this team in 2019 and that will help the ILBs as well, as he takes a ton of pressure off against tight ends, freeing the ILBs up to focus on RBs and the run game.

I think all your musings on the center position are reasonable.

Ultimately, I just don't think we have the resources to plug every hole, so I spend my priority resources on Ford and Hill. And I try to free up resources by ridding the team of two players that -- you're right -- the Chiefs will probably bring back for 2019 in Berry and LDT. I just think LDT can be replaced effectively because (a.) we already have, and (b.) Andy Heck is a goddamn monster of a coach. Guy has hit homeruns with every shred of talent we've given him.

With the top draft resources getting sucked up by the DL (which, if we let Bailey walk, will badly need an infusion of talent) and the secondary, I think that means you just bank on ILB improvement from the guys we already have.

I'd always overpay for tackles, but inside i'd just draft and develop.

I also think the ILB's would get a lot better if the guys in front of them could do a better job keeping them clean. I'd invest a lot more in the DL.

[DJ's left nut]

There's no way we get Hill extended at 4/$60, IMO. Not unless it rips up his deal next year and becomes only a 3 year extension (which is a bad idea on our end). He's gonna get at/near Odell Beckham money and he'll deserve it. If he doesn't, he won't extend early and he'll simply test the market.

I'm thinking 5/$85 would be on the low side for us.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's no way we get Hill extended at 4/$60, IMO. Not unless it rips up his deal next year and becomes only a 3 year extension (which is a bad idea on our end). He's gonna get at/near Odell Beckham money and he'll deserve it. If he doesn't, he won't extend early and he'll simply test the market.

I'm thinking 5/$85 would be on the low side for us.

The only thing you'd have going for you on Hill and getting him in at less is that he was such a later round pick, just giving him some comfort in having a long term deal might get you some savings.

He is so good that he may just go for broke, I don't know. But as a 5th rounder, 5/85 is pretty damn life changing depending on the guaranteed.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Hoover

My point is that you want to actually spend even less on the position group than we are spending now...

We have OC who is on a rookie contract. He was a 2nd round pick, that's not necessarily going cheap on that position. We paid LDT, that's not going cheap on that position. Our Its are on very friendly deals for what they are IMO. The only position that we are actually cheap on is RG.

My problem is that you want to invest even less.

We have the money to pay Hill and Ford and not gut the Oline like you are proposing. And really the only investment I think they should look at making is with draft capital in getting a center.

This post is totally fine except for this point.

I'm afraid that if we are going to keep Ford and Hill, something will have to give. I think it should be the position we are in the best position to survive with given the depth.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's no way we get Hill extended at 4/$60, IMO. Not unless it rips up his deal next year and becomes only a 3 year extension (which is a bad idea on our end). He's gonna get at/near Odell Beckham money and he'll deserve it. If he doesn't, he won't extend early and he'll simply test the market.

I'm thinking 5/$85 would be on the low side for us.

That's fair.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

This post is totally fine except for this point.

I'm afraid that if we are going to keep Ford and Hill, something will have to give. I think it should be the position we are in the best position to survive with given the depth.

I think that "give" needs to be Berry. He frees up enough money to pay for one of those guys and since he's rarely on the field, he also opens up a roster spot for someone that is. This team doesn't need All-World safeties, it just needs competent ones as in the past with guys like Abdullah and Coleman.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

This post is totally fine except for this point.

I'm afraid that if we are going to keep Ford and Hill, something will have to give. I think it should be the position we are in the best position to survive with given the depth.

You pay Hill.
Tag Ford
Cut Houston after 2019
If Ford stays healthy and produce you give him a contract in 2020.

*I'm not sure any defensive player is worth long term second contracts any more. But with this team, you tag Ford, and put off making that decision and you keep the team in place for next season except for Berry.

[O.city]

If you tag ford you let him walk next year. You’d gain no value in a long term deal after that.

All theee deals need to be looked at like “how can I give them this deal and still get value out of it”