Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

Anyone venturing into the Airlines? or am I the only idiot?

Why did you buy airline stock?

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

Anyone venturing into the Airlines? or am I the only idiot?

my brother bought BA at 167. A little early but BA isn't going to fail. Our defense dept. depends on BA.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Why did you buy airline stock?

several reasons:

1. Up to mid-Feb, each airline was doing just fine relative to where they are now
2. CARES funding into airline industry to keep them afloat
3. No way Govt won't continue to bail airline industry out....what are they going to do, let airlines fail? Then what....it's not like any company can just come out and buy the assets in a fire sale and resume business....
4. Once travel is permitted and fear subsides, people will be eager to get out of the home and take the trips they couldn't now. Business travel will resume as soon as humanly possible, but I believe the discount airlines will do OK too because they'll get the business travel + those itching to get away....

I think the prices today are a by-product of fear, and once we're out of this, then it will recover nicely. It's a long play to be sure, but hey, buy low / sell high right?

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

several reasons:

1. Up to mid-Feb, each airline was doing just fine relative to where they are now
2. CARES funding into airline industry to keep them afloat
3. No way Govt won't continue to bail airline industry out....what are they going to do, let airlines fail? Then what....it's not like any company can just come out and buy the assets in a fire sale and resume business....
4. Once travel is permitted and fear subsides, people will be eager to get out of the home and take the trips they couldn't now. Business travel will resume as soon as humanly possible, but I believe the discount airlines will do OK too because they'll get the business travel + those itching to get away....

I think the prices today are a by-product of fear, and once we're out of this, then it will recover nicely. It's a long play to be sure, but hey, buy low / sell high right?

P.S. It's not like I put my entire life savings into it....just made some speculative buys that plays on risk / reward......but I'm curious as to others thoughts on this

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

P.S. It's not like I put my entire life savings into it....just made some speculative buys that plays on risk / reward......but I'm curious as to others thoughts on this

It is your money but buying airline stock is accepting an outsized amount of risk without a corresponding increase in reward.

It took years for airlines to rebound from 9/11. Then people were afraid of being collateral damage in a highly improbable terrorist attack.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

P.S. It's not like I put my entire life savings into it....just made some speculative buys that plays on risk / reward......but I'm curious as to others thoughts on this

It may take some time (or not) but IMO airlines and oil are good buys today.

you'll double your money before long.

Warren Buffet, buy when others are fearful. Right!

[Rain Man]

Here's a question that should be obvious, but I can't seem to find it. What companies comprise the NASDAQ 100? I've been watching for several years now, and they've always outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow. I figured they'd underperform in a bear market, but nope. They're down far less than the S&P and Dow. I want to upweight those stocks, but I can't seem to locate a full list of NASDAQ 100 stocks.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here's a question that should be obvious, but I can't seem to find it. What companies comprise the NASDAQ 100? I've been watching for several years now, and they've always outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow. I figured they'd underperform in a bear market, but nope. They're down far less than the S&P and Dow. I want to upweight those stocks, but I can't seem to locate a full list of NASDAQ 100 stocks.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...nts/nasdaq_100

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

It is your money but buying airline stock is accepting an outsized amount of risk without a corresponding increase in reward.

It took years for airlines to rebound from 9/11. Then people were afraid of being collateral damage in a highly improbable terrorist attack.

These are good points for sure, and no disagreement from my end. But I see these situations as apples v. oranges

I think the human emotion involved in 9/11 was just as big as factor as the real liability related to it. You rightly point out that people didn't want to fly back then. That, to me, is what drove a lag in recovery.

In this case, I don't any raw fear of flying....once things are copasetic, I expect everything to return to normal. People are clamoring to get out, and once it's announced it's OK to travel, people will do so. The fear factor is minute in this situation (this is all my opinion, right or wrong)

In the meantime, there are 8 billion reasons (right now) as to why I don't think airlines will go under, and with the prices where they are at, why not make a speculative buy if you can afford to do so?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...nts/nasdaq_100

Well, there it is. Thanks!

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

These are good points for sure, and no disagreement from my end. But I see these situations as apples v. oranges

I think the human emotion involved in 9/11 was just as big as factor as the real liability related to it. You rightly point out that people didn't want to fly back then. That, to me, is what drove a lag in recovery.

In this case, I don't any raw fear of flying....once things are copasetic, I expect everything to return to normal. People are clamoring to get out, and once it's announced it's OK to travel, people will do so. The fear factor is minute in this situation (this is all my opinion, right or wrong)

In the meantime, there are 8 billion reasons (right now) as to why I don't think airlines will go under, and with the prices where they are at, why not make a speculative buy if you can afford to do so?

Basically, going long on airlines is betting on "business as usual" within this calendar year.

That ain't happening.

You're burning cash on that assumption. It's your money, but if I were managing it, I wouldn't touch airlines.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Basically, going long on airlines is betting on "business as usual" within this calendar year.

That ain't happening.

You're burning cash on that assumption. It's your money, but if I were managing it, I wouldn't touch airlines.

I'm not ready to bet on an airline, but would you have told me the same on disney and tesla?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by ghak99

I'm not ready to bet on an airline, but would you have told me the same on disney and tesla?

Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:



Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.

If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Basically, going long on airlines is betting on "business as usual" within this calendar year.

That ain't happening.

You're burning cash on that assumption. It's your money, but if I were managing it, I wouldn't touch airlines.

So, your position is that people will not resume normal travel for at least another 8 months? I suppose this is possible, but I'd say not probable.

By the way, you can buy a plane ticket to Wuhan starting on April 26th....it's expensive as hell, and who knows between now and then if they actually fly or not, but apparently somebody expects to be back in business flying to the epicenter by then....

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

So, your position is that people will not resume normal travel for at least another 8 months? I suppose this is possible, but I'd say not probable.

Try two years.