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Old 08-13-2005, 07:12 PM  
shaneo69 shaneo69 is offline
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I hate Dr. Z

This was probably posted last week when the article came out, but I didn't see it.

Called to Canton?
Hall of Fame sure things, possibles and long shots
Posted: Friday August 5, 2005 12:20PM

Last year, as the Hall of Fame weekend approached, I produced a roster of active NFL players who might be considered for induction some day, what their chances were and where my sentiments lay. I've been asked to update it, indicating any changes that have taken place in my thinking since last season.

These are the changes, for better or worse. Emmitt Smith actually has retired, which makes him a first-ballot enshrinee, class of 2010. Unless, of course, he de-mothballizes himself, as Deion did, and gives it another go. Tim Brown has retired. His chances will depend on whom he's up against. If his numbers speak, he'll make it, but I get a feeling that after five years, the steady inundation of overwhelming reception stats will have a numbing effect, just as multi-million dollar contract figures do now.

Less noticeable is the retirement of Darren Woodson, the sturdy warrior who played strong safety for the Cowboys for so many years. I'd love to see him join the Class of 2010, but it'll be tough. A new star has risen: San Diego TE Antonio Gates. Right now, in his infancy, he'll be termed a long shot.

This year I'm listing the prospects in three categories: Sure Thing, Possible and Long Shot. I'd call Gates a Possible. And Daunte Culpepper has thrown his hat into the ring after a magnificent 2004 season. Another Possible.

I think the whole area of kicking eventually will get a long look. You have Gary Anderson and Morten Andersen, who rank one-two in career field goals. You have Adam Vinatieri, one of the great money kickers in history. Right now only one kicker -- Jan Stenerud -- is in the Hall, and if you look at his numbers, compared to those of the moderns, they seem kind of quaint.

Last year I had Steve McNair as a possible enshrinee someday. Now it looks iffy. His body seems to be breaking down. Michael Vick and Jeremy Shockey were also possibles last year. Now I have serious doubts if Vick, thrilling as he is, ever will be an accurate passer, or if Shockey eventually will get his game together enough to perform at a consistently high level. They don't make our list.

In re-reading the piece from 2004, I see that my mistake was that I created way too big a roster. I knew some of those guys never would have a prayer, but I just threw them in anyway, feeling that someone, some day, might bring up their names. Now I'm trimming the list way back, and fitting the players into the three categories I mentioned earlier.

(continued)
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:13 PM   #2
shaneo69 shaneo69 is offline
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Sure Things

Junior Seau -- I've always been annoyed by his tendency to freelance a bit too much, but looking at the overall body of work, you have to say he's had a HOF career.

Jerry Rice -- Next candidate.

Marvin Harrison -- Huge numbers will bring him in.

Tom Brady -- Barring injury, of course.

Brett Favre -- He keeps tarnishing the image with goofy interceptions, but not many HOF selectors would have the guts to leave him out.

Peyton Manning -- Yeah, he's come of age. All he'll need will be to pile a few more 2004-style seasons on top of his lifetime totals.

Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis -- Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, on the career rushing list.

Marshall Faulk -- No. 12, but fourth in total yards from scrimmage (rushing and pass catching).

Ray Lewis -- Starting to slip a bit, but that's after nine years of high production.

Hines Ward -- Terrific gamer, but he might fall behind some others in the numbers race. Call him a Sure Thing in Z's mind, but maybe not in everyone else's.

LaDainian Tomlinson -- About five more years of the kind of yardage figures he's already put up will swing it.

Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick -- The latter is the surer Bill.

Michael Strahan -- OK, maybe not a sure thing, but he can lay a claim as the dominant D-lineman of this period.

Brian Dawkins -- Definitely the best free safety for half a dozen years.

Aeneas Williams and Derrick Brooks -- Long and meritorious service at corner and outside linebacker, respectively.

Larry Allen -- Eleven years of selectors being exposed to his booming blocks via the isolated camera won't hurt his chances.

Possibles

Culpepper and Randy Moss -- For Culpepper, see above. I think his chances are better than those of Moss because people, and that includes the selectors, don't like Randy. A glitch or two, such as the injuries he suffered last season, will hurt Moss worse than it would other guys because people will be looking for excuses not to vote for him.

Ed Reed -- The dominant strong safety right now, but his career has a long way to go.

Walter Jones, Alan Faneca, Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Will Shields -- Multiple all-star choices along the offensive line. Jones is the smoothest, as a pass blocker. Which one (or ones) get anointed will depend on the mood of the selectors, plus who these candidates are up against.

Long Shots

Troy Vincent -- He's had a comfortable, productive career on the corner. If he develops as a really talented player in his new spot, free safety, he'll have a shot because the selectors like multiple-position guys.

Eric Moulds, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith -- I'd rank them J. Smith, Moulds, R. Smith, but future HOF wideouts will be a grab bag because the numbers are so high.

Chad Pennington -- Very talented, but I'm afraid they'll rush him back too quickly, with that bad shoulder, just as they did at the end of last season.

Kevin Mawae, Tom Nalen, Olin Kreutz -- Long-shot centers (no, I didn't say long-snap).

Charles Tillman -- The young Bears CB was my ultimate sleeper last year. Then he got hurt. Call it the SI.com jinx.

Dick Vermeil -- A long, distinguished career. He'll be battling Parcells for the coach's spot.

John Lynch -- He has a shot because he's been so popular with the writers, i.e., selectors. Who said that being a nice guy didn't hurt?

Keith Bulluck -- Starting to taste stardom now. It tastes good. Bring more, please.

Warren Sapp -- I won't vote for him. I know that other people will. I thought after Sapp's first few years that he'd be one of the greatest who ever lived. Unfortunately he didn't maintain the pace, but he's quotable and popular.

Donovan McNabb -- Ooh, this is a tough one. Had a better chance before last year. Super Bowl hurt him. The disappearance of the two-minute offense wasn't really his fault, but I think it'll always haunt him.

Clinton Portis -- Last year I liked his chances. Although 1,315 yards hardly indicate a bad season, the vibes coming out of Washington weren't all positive, and I think he has less of a chance now.

Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt -- Gosh, I don't know. I threw their names in there, and now I'm drifting back to what I did last year, and while I'm at it, I might as well throw in ...

Ahman Green -- Who has been productive for quite a few seasons.

Gates -- See above.

OK, right now there are about 200 people out there with fingers poised over the e-mail keys, and outcries that start with, "How could you have left off ... ?"

Send 'em in, folks. Send in all the names. I know I've neglected people. It's been a rough day. Just drove back from the Bills camp in Rochester. Three hundred miles. Arrived home to find that Little Jake, who is no longer a kitten, peed all over the house. And that was with a supervisor present.

Some supervisor.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:15 PM   #3
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This week's follow up column...

Hall of Fame questions, submissions, answers to last week's column, and Andrew says there was a ton of them. He selected the ones most representative of common feelings. First two I got were from people in the business. Pete Moris of the Chiefs' PR staff asked me how I could mention Antonio Gates and leave off Tony Gonzalez. Dean of NYC wants to know the same thing. Fellas, I warned you. Remember when I said I'd probably be leaving off a few because it was strictly too big a load for the available brain cells? I was right. And the first guy I left off was Gonzalez. Of course he will deserve enshrinement some day. I erred. Mea culpa. Mea crappa.

Next I got a phone call from Paul Needell of the Newark Star-Ledger, who was puzzled because I neglected Orlando Pace. My gosh, a Needell in a haystack. Jim of Phoenix was the e-mailer sharing the sentiments. Nope, this was not an oversight. Orlando's a decent, if slightly inconsistent tackle. A functional player, but far from a Hall of Famer, in my humble opinion.

A whole battery of names from Tom of Grand Rapids, Mich. In order of appearance -- Brian Urlacher. Nope, too soft around the goal line. Zach Thomas. I'll reconsider and call him a Possible. Troy Polamalu. Active young player and good sticker, but he's gotta do more stuff before the Hall will beckon. Mike Alstott. Had a couple of very good years and a lot of good ones. We're talking about the H of F, friend, and this ain't enough. You say "a '90s FB will get in." Who, pray tell?

See, you make these goofy pronouncements, such as, "Of all the O-linemen you mentioned, the one or two with the most playoff success will get in (Faneca)." Gee, I never saw you sitting in on the enshrinement meetings. This might shock you, but generally a candidate is judged on his own playing ability, except when a QB comes up, and then we always hear the perennially dopey, "How many championships did he win?" You don't like Culpepper? I do, if he strings together a few 2004-type seasons. Finally Tim Brown. Don't worry, he'll make it, although, and I've mentioned this about 400 times already ... he dropped too many balls.

Peter of Saskatoon says he just read Dallas columnist Goose Gosselin's article predicting that Troy Aikman will have a rough go in the next selectors' meeting because his numbers weren't large enough, despite the fact that there were plenty of other weapons, i.e., Emmitt, and Troy was fair-minded enough to spread the wealth around. I promise you that I will bust my hump for Troy, if this criticism arises. I will do anything. I will challenge people to a duel and if one particular selector happens to be reading this he knows I mean him.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:19 PM   #4
HolmeZz HolmeZz is offline
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He just doesn't like offensive linemen at all.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:21 PM   #5
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The dude left off Scanlon. He's obviously a dufus.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:25 PM   #6
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Gates has a lucky year and now a posible hall of fame canidate? Dr Z hates the Chiefs-not one mentioned. How about Roaf and Shields, Priest. This guy needs to retire-he has no clue about football.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:35 PM   #7
shaneo69 shaneo69 is offline
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I just don't see how Seau is a sure thing, yet this asshat voted against Derrick Thomas.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:38 PM   #8
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I still don't see how DT missed-I think they just wanted it to be about QBS this year.
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Old 08-13-2005, 07:41 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan
I still don't see how DT missed-I think they just wanted it to be about QBS this year.
He had the Chiefs tool speak for him. Gretz. They are suppose to be respected journalists in that room talking to each other trying to convince the other reporters to vote for their guy. Its very hush hush, back room deals kind of thing but last year Gretz'z presentation was so horrible that some spoke out about it.

DT deserves better!
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:11 PM   #10
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LoL BRC-so that is what happened. I wondered why Gretz put the follow up defending his report online. I just loved watching DT play, and had the pleasure to meet the guy a few times-I can't believe he missed. I about punched this azzhole sitting behind us calling DT a scumbag when he was getting his number retired by the Chiefs. The gaurd must have been big DT fan too, because he came over and excorted the guy out. I mean DT's mom was down there crying and this guy is yelling scumbag.
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:12 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
He had the Chiefs tool speak for him. Gretz. They are suppose to be respected journalists in that room talking to each other trying to convince the other reporters to vote for their guy. Its very hush hush, back room deals kind of thing but last year Gretz'z presentation was so horrible that some spoke out about it.

DT deserves better!
Oh bullshit, it's because he was a one trick pony who never stopped the run and had no coverage abilities at all...He was actually a specialist, kinda like a placekicker or punter...He will get in because of his sack totals, but I can certainly understand him not being a first-ballot guy....
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:14 PM   #12
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:22 PM   #13
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One trick pony, I guess all the forced fumbles didn't count for anything either. DT turned our whole franchise around-you must not of went to many games at Arrowhead during the late 70's and 80's. He turned around or won a lot of big games- and during the important games was unstopable. My favorite pic of DT is the one he is standing over Elgay after a sack and game winning kctrip. He owned elgay and the raiders too. He was never asked to do coverage or run support much-why would they??
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:28 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan
One trick pony, I guess all the forced fumbles didn't count for anything either. DT turned our whole franchise around-you must not of went to many games at Arrowhead during the late 70's and 80's. He turned around or won a lot of big games- and during the important games was unstopable. My favorite pic of DT is the one he is standing over Elgay after a sack and game winning kctrip. He owned elgay and the raiders too. He was never asked to do coverage or run support much-why would they??
He was a one trick pony.

He simply did one thing, and he did that one thing better than anyone else in his era.
He was playmaker at his specialty. forcing fumbles, creating TOs because of the pressure.
He was a big part of the turn around.

But the fact is he wasn't a run defender, and he wasn't pass defender.

They didn't ask him to do it, because, quite frankly, he wasn't very good at it.
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Old 08-13-2005, 08:37 PM   #15
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I would take that one trick pony on our team anyday. DT was a football player, if they came to him and said we need you to take Salamua's place as a run stopper-he would have done it. Plus he had the spead to cover-but why when he can shed double teams and knock the crap out of QBS. He deserves to be in the Hall. If he hadn't died he would have had at least 3 or 4 more dominate years. I still get bummed that he died.
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