Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun
Mahomes is going to struggle, because Denver applies a ton of pressure, and they cover pretty well. That's the equation to slowing down Mahomes this year.
The Chiefs D will have a bigger challenge than you assume. Drew Lock is not the key reason Drew Lock is looking good, Phillip Lindsay is. Lindsay is a hell of a runner, maybe a Top 3 RB in the league right now, and he's tough to stop. If he's going, then Lock can capitalize.
So our focus needs to be on clamping down Lindsay -- a tall order, but one we are capable of doing. So long as we can do that we can neuter Lock, but again, that's a tall order.
So ultimately I'd pick the Chiefs to win, but I think it's going to be a slugfest and I do think the Donks will trot out a couple trick plays because this is their Super Bowl.
Chiefs 23
Broncos 20
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There's absolutely no doubt that Lindsay and Freeman are key to what has been happening and if they are going to do anything positive on Sunday, they need 120+ yards and a consistent threat in the ground game. Basic football and it opens up what they can do with Lock - he's not a statue like Flacco.
Additionally, Fant and Beck have to be a focus early - it opens things up and gives Lock breathing room and a better chance to execute.
They can't rely on Lock to deliver a win on his own... not in game 3 on the road @ Arrowhead.
Denver was up 14 on MIN several weeks ago and fell flat late - lost the momentum they were getting from the ground game and the defense buckled late. Rushed 33 times for 124 yards and controlled the clock.
@ BUF - they were a miserable failure
LAC - they got up early and played it safe, barely held on. Ground game did little.
@ HOU - they got up early and the defense was on fire, the passing game was hot. The ground game was average.
So, in 3 of the last 4 - ton of inconsistencies. But, contrary to early in the season, they were up big in 3 of the 4 games and held on to win.
Denver needs 35 carries and they need 120+ yards on the ground. In 3 of the last 5 games, Fant has been a solid presence and that has to repeat. Sutton will have a tough time most likely, unless they find a way for Patrick, Fant, Heuerman and Hamilton to get a few more targets.
I think they have a lot of positives going forward, but for this game - if the ground attack isn't happening, they're going to fail miserably.
Your predicition is in line with mine.