Quote:
Originally Posted by RedinTexas
As I've said before, the 5th year option on 1st round picks is not a secret. Every GM in the NFL knows all about it. If the Chiefs entertain offers to trade down, the value of the 5th year option on that pick will be priced into any offer. If it is not, then the offer would probably be declined.
The talent level of the draft declines rapidly in the first round as reflected in the point values of picks in the draft chart. The likelihood of getting a star at the end of the 1st is substantially less than at the beginning. Not every player taken in the 1st has that 5th year option exercised. We didn't exercise it on Edwards-Helaire and there are many other examples across the NFL. The mere existence of the 5th year option for 1st rounders is no reason to refuse to trade down from the 1st round.
|
When the return is a 3rd day pick (or moving down too far to still control your own destiny) then yes, it is.
I wouldn't give up the 5th year option for any 1st rounder for a mere 5th round pick. Look at how much more complicated it would've made things with McDuffie and/or Karlaftis to not have that in our pocket to use if necessary.
Or how beneficial it could've been in a Chris Jones negotiation.
The option isn't any sort of given, no. But it's a card you have and that has value. That value is greater than a 5th rounder and if you're going to try to start getting 3rd or better, you're moving down a dozen spots or more.
On the trade value charts there is no distinction between moving from 32 to 33 vs. moving from 33 to 34. In fact you gain MORE value moving from 33 to 34 than you do 32 to 33. There's literally zero value placed on the 5th year option in that equation. So from that perspective, your very premise is flawed.
To move down enough to still be confident one of 'your guys' will be there means you aren't moving any lower than about 36 from 31. That nets you about the value of a 5th round pick. That's simply not worth the risk, either in terms of the player you could still get at 36 vs. 31 OR in terms of the potential value lost by moving out of the 1st round.
It's just not a good idea. Everyone falls in love with the idea every season when in reality the answer should be to move up -- just as we did to get Worthy when the board was starting to thin out. The teams that move out of the round usually don't get much for their trouble.