Rand's Take: With Today's Defense, The Chiefs...
...would go 10-6 and grab a Wild Card. This is after his review of the schedule (and at least a six pack):
RAND: Chiefs will need a fast finish Apr 15, 2005, 1:18:52 PM by Jonathan Rand For the Chiefs, winning big this December should be a lot more meaningful than it was in 2004. The Chiefs went 4-0 last December a year ago but that success came too late because they entered that month at 3-8. This year, they should be able to enter December with a winning record and their last five games, including the finale on New Year’s Day, should make or break their playoff chances. The Chiefs’ schedule, released Wednesday, suggests a struggle early and a playoff run late. The schedule appears tough at the start but manageable at the end. Which is fine for the Chiefs, providing they can head into their bye week no worse than 2-2. Of the Chiefs’ seven games against 2004 playoff teams, three are among their first four games, including the opener September 11 at home against the New York Jets. After a Sunday night game at Oakland and Monday night game at Denver, the Chiefs come home October 2 to face the Philadelphia Eagles, defending NFC champions. The Chiefs will certainly need a bye week after that, the first of three key stretches on their schedule. The second key stretch begins October 23, a week after a home game against Washington. This stretch includes four road games in five weeks, with a home game against the Raiders in the middle. The Chiefs will probably need to win at least three of these five games. They’ll likely be underdogs at San Diego on October 30 and face a tough time at Buffalo on November 13. But games at Miami on October 23 and Houston on November 20 are obviously winnable and probably will prove crucial to the Chiefs’ playoff chances. When a team travels so much in a short stretch, it’s prone to stubbing its toe when least expected. The Chiefs can’t afford to stub their toes and, to make the playoffs, need to stand no worse than 6-4 when they meet New England, defending Super Bowl champion, on November 27 at Arrowhead. If the Chiefs lose to the Patriots, as they did at home a year ago, you can see why the final stretch becomes so important. It includes home games against the Broncos and Chargers, back-to-back games at Dallas and the New York Giants and a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Here’s guessing that the Chiefs will have to win four of those last five games to make the playoffs. Any way you look at it, the Chiefs’ won’t have a cakewalk. The Chiefs’ 16 opponents in 2004 finished 137-119, counting the records of AFC rivals San Diego, Denver and Oakland each twice. The Chiefs play seven games against 2004 playoff teams and nine games against teams that finished 8-8 or better. Any team prefers to play its strongest opponents at home and weakest opponents on the road. So the Chiefs should be pleased to see the Jets, Eagles and Patriots coming to Arrowhead. Of their seven games against teams that had losing records last year, the Chiefs play five of them on the road. Though the Chiefs came limping into December last year, it wasn’t the tough spots that wrecked their season. They faced a couple of two-game stretches that offered terrific opportunities to keep the Chiefs in contention. But instead of rebounding from an opening-loss at Denver, they lost consecutive home games to underdogs Carolina and Houston. After scoring impressive home wins over Atlanta and Indianapolis, the Chiefs faced two so-so opponents on the road. But losses at Tampa Bay and New Orleans dropped the Chiefs to 3-6 and their season was toast. The Chiefs, who finished 7-9, could have enjoyed a successful season had they just taken care of business against ordinary opponents. But as long as their defense couldn’t stop anybody, there was no such thing as an ordinary opponent for the Chiefs. Given a much-improved defense, the Chiefs will be less likely to lay an egg against the teams they should beat. We’ll have a better handle on the Chiefs’ prospects after they complete their draft and cornerback search, but if they had to start the season Sunday, they’d finish 10-6 and grab a wild-card playoff spot. The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs. |
Actually I say he is about right. Guys we went 7-9 last season with a crappier defense, and we could have easily won some of those games. This place should be the glass half empty planet.
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"faith" doesn't win football games |
My post wasn't negative...like I always say, I'm a see the Kool-Aid as half-full kind of guy, I'm just not gonna drink it till I see someone else try it first.
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yeah.. I'd say thats about right on in my estimation.. although he didn't stress enough how much we NEED to start off the season with a win over the JETS!!!!!!!
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is he assuming we get Surtain?
because right now our defense is still a flaming piece of shit.... |
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Sammy Knight, Kendrell Bell, Carlos Hall and a year of more maturity under Gunther for the rest of the defense. :hmmm: |
After a 2002 season where KC went 7-9, they added 3 of the biggest FA busts in NFL history and went 13-3.
After the 2004 season and prior to the Draft, KC has added 2 more FA's to their defense, level of bustage has yet to be determined, but I'd say that could be good for 3 wins assuming the offense stops fumbling the ball inside the 10 yard line. |
I think its good for writers to do stuff like this. The problem last year was the shitty start, we have to be ready.
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You guys forget to remember that the players look to win every game. Just because we play the Pats or the Eagles doesnt mean were gonna lose. We are very capable of beating those teams and I think this year were gonna be good granted we get DJ in the draft and Surtain and Barber gets healthy.
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but the list of possible issues is twice as long as the reasons you just gave. i'm not going to list them because i don't wanna be a "complainer" |
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Carlos Hall should not be expected to make the same impact as Bell and Knight. He's a rotational -type-player that's not much better than what we currently have. |
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it would not surprise me if he thought that... |
:rolleyes: whatever...I'm tired of these GODDAMN chiefs columnist expressing all the possible optimism, any possible way to make this franchise look good. Yes, I'm referring to Gretz, Rufus, and Rand. This defense is still a piece of sh*t, and, in my eyes they are still going to lose games because of this defense. this fuck'n franchise has not made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 seasons, hasn't won a playoff game in 13 years, we don't need to hear this crap...pardon my language, I rarely use the lord's name in vain :mad: this article pissed me off, cause it's the same sh*t we hear over and over again with these columnists and with the Chiefs, and, it's tiring and non-believable.
*this is the statement that is absolute bullsh*t: "The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs" :rolleyes: :shake: B.S...everything these guys write comes out of Peterson's arse. |
DEFENSE!!! We don't need no stinkin DEFENSE!!
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none of the games on our schedule are gimmies, we proved that last year...home field meant nothing if we sign Surtain, and if we draft Johnson, and if Fujita is healthy and starts the season, and if Warfield isn't suspended for 4 games, and if Shields doesn't retire...then you can say with a straight face "We'll end up 10-6" way to many variables right now.... |
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I like all the 'if's strung together...does that mean that if one of those 8 or 9 things dont happen there is zero chance of going 10-6? I would agree that there are a lot of variables and, as such, right 'now' the chances of this team going 13-3, 10-6, 7-9, 4-12 are all pretty much the same. What if all those things happen above and then Green blows out a knee and Roaf tears a bicep and Holmes gets hurt again--it's a fun game, I admit. |
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Come on Laz, please! Actually I look forward to your viewpoints because they have helped me move my homer perspective more towards the middle, really! It has opened my eyes somewhat I think. I have thrown a few jabs your way, but only in good fun, don't soften now! :thumb: |
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I agree with that. |
It's a tough schedule, but if you are a legitimate Super Bowl contender you have to win the games you should win and you have to win games against playoff caliber teams.
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I hate this lack of faith everyone has on the chiefs. I mean yea we went 7-9 last season but the season before that lets remember we were 13-3 and we had a worse defense then we did last season. Only helping our defense will help our team.
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"Given a much-improved defense, the Chiefs will be less likely to lay an egg against the teams they should beat. We’ll have a better handle on the Chiefs’ prospects after they complete their draft and cornerback search, but if they had to start the season Sunday, they’d finish 10-6 and grab a wild-card playoff spot."
I wouldn't take anything as a "given" about the defense at the moment. I've been fooled by their propaganda the last 4 yrs. :cuss: :banghead: :cuss: |
He's effin' crazy.
11-5 is my guess. |
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Personally I don't see the schedule as being 'that' tough. Its essentially the same schedule the rest of our division plays and if you throw out NE and Philly I'd regard it as rather easy.
The whizkids have had more then enough time to put it all together. If this team is legit then this schedule shouldn't be a problem. If we're pretenders (my take) then this schedule will prove it out. |
10 wins is a "safe" pick... it's not being "homer" and going 12... just 2 above .500 and should be good enough to advance. Not really going out on a limb...
I think if you asked 100 fans from various fan affilliations, "how many wins will X team get this year" ... 10 would be the answer 7 outta 10 times. |
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This defense has added three players and hasn't taken a snap in an NFL game yet (as a unit). So on paper you could say it has improved but "much-improved"? Yeah, right. They hardly took giant leaps in the off season. They don't even know who the safeties and corners will be on opening day. Is he saying that the previous defense was so bad that any move at all is going to make a big improvement? |
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i pray we start the season at least 1-3, I think 2-2 is realistic.
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Rand's being rather opyimistic if the season strated today we would be 5-11 or 6-10. The Chiefs have a substandard LB and DB corps
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Rand should check himself in to the Betty Ford clinic for his crack habit if he thinks with the defense as it currently stands we have a shot at 10-6. :shake:
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Frankly I could give a fark if we win against them in the regular season, if we are not good enough to beat them in the playoffs. |
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In addition, it's NO FUN to have 2 prime time games in a row in weeks 2 and 3 on the road against division rivals. The way this schedule breaks down is very tough. If we fall behind early, and the schedule suggests that it easily could happen,it's going to be very hard to make up ground until late in the season, and by then it could be too late. :hmmm: |
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We need surtain and johnson and it will be on
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The biggest concern I have with the whole schedule is that the hardest stretch is probably the first 4 games. We don't know if we will have Warfield, Fujita or Barber. The new members of the defense will still be adjusting to how each other plays and the rookies will still be raw.
This team should improve during the season and I think we can figure on Barber and Warfield returning after the bye. But if we open 0-4 or even 1-3 it may be too late again this season. |
The first four don't scare me as much as everyone else, I guess. We'll beat the Jets. Oakland and Denver are both going to suck in '05, we should at least split those two. Philly's going to be the tough one. I don't see us starting worse than 2-2 and 3-1 wouldn't stun me (win the home games, split the prime times). The trick is going to be keeping our head above water for the six weeks after the bye so we have something to play four with that setup of four home games in the last six.
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Fujita will be back by TC, Barber will be on PUP - if we are lucky he will be back for the final 8 games... |
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However, Denver will not suck IMO. Their defense is good and will keep them in many games. They knew they were weak on the DL and made many additions there. If they pay off, they will be better on defense than they were last year and they also signed Ian Gold so their LB's will be perfect for their switch to a 3-4. On offense they might be more consistent if Bell works out so teams won't be able to force Plummer and beat them. They lack a great TE but he's adequate and will be better this year. Their Wr's are very respectable and could be very good if Ashley can pick off where he left off last year and if Watts can become more consistent. I am curious to see how their line performs with the refs watching. :hmmm: I'm interested on your take casue it's usually pretty good. Or it will at least sound that way. ;) |
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Since we're talking about the division, I also don't think much of San Diego. I expect a fall-off similar to what we experienced last year. All-in-all, I think the division is up in the air this year, and I think 10-11 wins takes it. I think we have as good a shot as anyone. I think there's even a chance we'll see some dramatic improvement on defense, depending on what further moves we make. |
I've said it once I'll say it a billion times Randy Moss aint shit without a good quarterback to throw to him. Kerry Collins sucks hardcore he has zip for accuarcy and he doesnt scramble he had almost as many INT's last season as he did TD's. Raiders will be bottom of the barrell again. But seriously we need Johnson even though he is a rookie and we need surtain. If we give Miami our first round pick, our second rounder, and a fourth and a fifth we can get surtain and johnson and write off the first day as a good day. With Johnson, Surtain, and the late third. I'd rather give up picks we won't need then giving them up for picks we won't use this year like we did with keyaron fox.
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I'm curious as to why you don't think Gold will work out in the 3-4? |
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