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I wouldn't underestimate the difference in either overall pass attempts or downfield pass attempts when it comes to analyzing Smith's interception numbers compared to Cutler. As of last week (splits haven't been updated on espn's site yet, and Cutler did have a poor game, so they'll shift some...) Smith had more than 100 fewer attempts, as well as half the attempts of Cutler with regards to passes traveling 11+ yards in the air. With those passes, the statistical difference for interception rate between the two was just 1% as of a week ago, which was a bit of a surprise to me. Double Smith's attempts in that range, at his current pick rate, and he has 4-5 more interceptions in the 11+ yard range, meaning 9-10 versus Cutler's 11.
I don't know Cutler's stats in that sense for Monday's game, but basically, Smith's pick numbers would likely be higher if he a) threw 100 more passes, and b) attempted more passes beyond 10 yards. Something which I think most of us actively want him to do, knowing full well that it will occasionally lead to a turnover.
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