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Originally Posted by Brock
Trading next year's first is always a fool's bet, IMO.
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Not always. I'll start by noting that I think a team like the Browns, where teh pick could easily be in the top 10, should almot never be traded away. BUT, I think, The Browns current leadership is trying desperately to save their jobs.
But other than that, picks and players are just commodities. Next year's pick is an unknown commodity, to a degree, because the position isn't determined, but teams already have a good sense of whether the draft is a strong or weak one, and how the player you intend to get now (a known commodity) compares to what is likely to be available next year, depending on the pick.
As a simple example, if a player is on the board in the early 2nd round that a team like the Pats, Chargers, Bears or Colts (all likely 10+ game winners with a pick likely in the bottom 1/3rd of next years draft) rate as a "first round value", then it would make sense to me for a team like that to trade a 1st next year to get that guy.