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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Fair enough on Snider (though that sweep of the POTY award was surprising to me, and good indication Myers will succeed). I guess I just don't place THAT much value on James Shields.
Shields has been a little better than a 2.0 WAR pitcher over his career. Over the past 3 years, he's at 5.1 WAR total, or a little less than 2.0 WAR/year.
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I think Shields is quite a bit better than his career numbers. He's certainly been a different pitcher the last two seasons and has kept the ball in the park. Very dependable in terms of his health too. I'd love to get him on the Jays, but it sounds they'd ask for Lawrie or something.
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The Royals would gain AT LEAST as much from a wins standpoint simply by replacing Jeff Francoeur (-2.1 WAR) with Wil Myers and having Myers perform at replacement level. If Myers is even slightly above average (say, 2.0 wins), you just gained 4 wins.
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Are they really just going to stick Francoeur on the bench? It would be worth it. -2 WAR? That's worse than I thought. What an absolute shitbag.
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Shields isn't enough to put KC over the top, unless the Royals can get him in a fashion that DOESN'T involve Wil Myers. If the Royals were coming off an 85-win season instead of a 75-win season, it's a different story.
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I see. Then there's no real point.