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10-31-2005, 08:33 AM | #2 |
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Assuming a Pittsburgh victory tonight...
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10-31-2005, 02:30 PM | #3 |
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Have New Orleans and Houston seriously been eliminated from winning their divisions already? Or did they just get rounded to zero because of significant digit issues?
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10-31-2005, 04:10 PM | #4 | |
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Quote:
The numbers were based on 5000 simulaitons and my code reports to two significant figures. If they won the division once in 5000 seasons it would be 0.02 percent, which would be reported by my software. So, in 5000 simulations they did not win their divisions once, indicating that their odds are pretty low. Now if they go on a 3 game winning streak (something that my software thinks is very improbable), they could re-enter the picture. |
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10-31-2005, 04:14 PM | #5 |
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Ah. Thanks. I didn't think that they could be mathematically out yet. That'll take a couple more weeks.
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10-31-2005, 04:20 PM | #6 |
i guess its bittersweet poetry
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I thought we had the tie-breaker with Jacksonville as it stood right now.
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10-31-2005, 04:40 PM | #7 | |
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Quote:
2. conference games both teams are 3-2 3. best record against common opponents, minimum of 4 games - we will meet this criteria by the end of the season. Right now the WLT in these games goes to Jacksonville as they are 2-1 in these games compared to 1-1 for KC. Regardless, the present tiebreaker status does not necessarily matter in my predictions. I predict the average outcome of games for the rest of the season and determine playoff seedings from those. Jacksonville's advantage in the wild card race is because their power rating is better (because they have beaten some better teams) and their remaining schedule is easier with games against: Houston (twice), Baltimore, Tennessee (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, and San Francisco. Indy is probably the only game remaining on their schedule that they will not be favored to win. We're doomed, I tell ya. |
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10-31-2005, 05:08 PM | #8 |
Kind of a mod
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I always find these things interesting. Depressing in this case, but interesting.
Did you say at some point that you were thinking of actually letting us play with the software, rather than just posting screen shots? I'd love to see how it's all set up. |
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10-31-2005, 07:10 PM | #9 | |
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Quote:
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10-31-2005, 11:37 PM | #10 |
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Need a ß Tester?
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10-31-2005, 11:46 PM | #11 |
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In reality you will all be beta testers, as I will be continuing to upgrade the software. Once I get the first edition up, I'll post updates as soon as they compile and pass a standard test. The first edition won't have too many knobs to twist, but I already have enough feature additions in mind to keep me busy for the rest of the season, at least. Nevertheless, I am very open to ideas from others.
I really think it will be out by next week, latest. |
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10-31-2005, 11:50 PM | #12 |
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How about an αlpha tester
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