Mellinger: Chiefs’ inability to stop the pass is too big a playoff weakness

[OnTheWarpath15]

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/12/24...-the-pass.html

After the Chiefs have lost in the playoffs and the obituaries of their season have been written, we will remember this team in two primary ways.

First, it’s the group that brought pride back to an organization that had lost its way, one of the great turnarounds in recent NFL history.

And second, it will be the team that kept alive the franchise’s 20-year drought of playoff wins because it could not stop the pass.

This season is such a wild ride, already. It started with the cloud of an embarrassing and shameful 2-14 team hanging overhead, then it picked up steam with a string of good breaks and overwhelming defense, and it’s now spinning its wheels uphill through the icy conditions of better competition.

What most people thought before the season was turned to fiction through the first nine games, and what many people thought through the first nine games has again been turned on its head by the last six.

Specifically, this is no longer a defense that fans should be confident with or a competent offense should be concerned with.

Even including a gift against an imploding team from Washington, the Chiefs are giving up 27.8 points per game since their bye week. They rank 21st in opponents’ yards per play (edging out No. 22 Jacksonville).

Their best cornerback from the first month or two of the season has been benched, and the results didn’t change. Their best cornerback from last year has been moved from the outside to the slot and now back to the outside, and the results didn’t change.

A defense that was the talk of the league through Halloween is now a liability against good quarterbacks, at a time when the Chiefs are unlikely to again face anything but a star quarterback.

The Chiefs’ four losses have clear similarities, starting with their inability to stop the pass.

In those losses, opposing quarterbacks completed 67 percent of their passes for an average of 340 yards with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. That’s a cumulative passer rating of 111.9. If you prefer ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating — it’s complicated, but it’s a scale of 0-100 with 50 being average — the Chiefs have given up QBRs of 66.5, 86.7, 97.2 and 55.5 in their losses.

In those losses, we saw Marcus Cooper bullied, Brandon Flowers beat, and Sean Smith complaining about penalties that were fairly called on him.

We’ve also seen circumstances that demand far more from the cornerbacks than should ever be asked — a neutered pass rush giving quarterbacks too much time and a lot of plays with only one safety deep to help.

Using Pro Football Focus’ numbers, almost without exception, the worst games for all three primary cornerbacks are the losses. Then again, the guys at the line of scrimmage aren’t doing their job, either: 6 1/2 sacks and 18.7 quarterback hits and hurries in the wins, compared to one-half sack and 13.2 hits and hurries in the losses.

Even watching video, without knowing assignments and schemes (and who is playing at less than full strength), dividing blame is a circular argument. Receivers are often open, at least in part, because the pass rush isn’t getting to the quarterback. The pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, at least in part, because receivers are open too quickly.

This week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid talked about how much of his team’s inability to stop the pass in the four losses is more on the pass rushers or pass defenders.

“I’d probably say there’s a combination of things,” he said. “The bottom line is we’re not having quite as much pressure on the quarterback. … Pressure and coverage kind of work together. Each (game) is a little different.

“You saw (against Indianapolis), we didn’t have guys covered. We’ve got to make sure we get that straight. … One breakdown, the quarterback sees it, there’s an issue. We need to make sure we get that better.”

You’ll notice there are separate bits of Reid’s answer that put the blame on the pass rush and the pass coverage.

There is enough blame to go around.

The expected return of Justin Houston will help, of course. Everything that defensive coordinator Bob Sutton wants to do is based on pressuring the quarterback, and even on a team with Tamba Hali, Houston is the best pass rusher.

But we’ve seen enough to know that Houston’s return will not be an instant and total fix. We’ve seen enough to know that the cornerbacks aren’t fast enough to keep up on deep routes, that they need more than one safety helping in the pass game, and that the coaches haven’t figured out how to properly defend against crossing routes.

The Chiefs have accomplished a lot this year. Jamaal Charles (offensive player of the year), Andy Reid (coach of the year) and John Dorsey (executive of the year) have strong cases for major postseason awards. The Chiefs should get at least five, and maybe as many as seven players in the Pro Bowl. They have grown from dysfunction to the playoffs, and that’s no small thing, even in the parity-driven NFL.

No matter what happens the rest of the way, this has been a successful and crucial season in the Chiefs regaining their fans’ trust.

But when the season ends with another playoff loss, the important thing will be to patch weaknesses in time to take advantage of the prime years for stars like Charles, Hali and Derrick Johnson.

Mostly, that means figuring out a way to stop the pass.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I think Luke Houstonwalker needs a new arm...

He'll pull through it... his midichlorian count is off the charts.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by jspchief

Lewis is an obvious problem but the pass rush is the real issue. An don't give me this shit about manning and brees. Lesser defenses/players are getting more pressure. There are some scheme and performance issues, and they began before Houston got injured.

Teams studied film on this defense and have progressively gotten better. Meanwhile there has been little done to counter it from Sutton. He's going to be the DC for at least 2 more years. He better get smarter or we have a problem.

This part cannot be stressed enough right now. On D, it all starts right there, and we simply don't have a pass rush these days. I sure hope it comes back soon....

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by scott free

He'll pull through it... his midichlorian count is off the charts.

[Mr. Laz]

the front 7 aren't getting pressure in the 1st quarter of the game so if they are gassed then they are trashed from too many reps all season and their legs are shot

Our scheme is too predictable to give them an edge and Sutton is now too scared to try anything aggressive or new.

The front 4 can't win the 1-on-1 battles and our blitzes get picked up

we are now a bend, then break defense

It's the 1st year of this admin so player depth should get better with another offseason but i really worry whether Sutton has enough tricks in his hat.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

the front 7 aren't getting pressure in the 1st quarter of the game so if they are gassed then they are trashed from too many reps all season and their legs are shot...

Said no DC of any top 10 D ever...

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

the front 7 aren't getting pressure in the 1st quarter of the game so if they are gassed then they are trashed from too many reps all season and their legs are shot

Our scheme is too predictable to give them an edge and Sutton is now too scared to try anything aggressive or new.

The front 4 can't win the 1-on-1 battles and our blitzes get picked up

we are now a bend, then break defense

It's the 1st year of this admin so player depth should get better with another offseason but i really worry whether Sutton has enough tricks in his hat.

These might help both lines during the playoff game...

[mcaj22]

yea but wheres the upgrade in the front 7 to better it?

let Tyson Jackson go? Cut DeVito?

Poe, Houston, Hali, DJ are here to stay, so it's what the two DE spots the other MLBer and depth? That's the difference in not getting a pass rush in a 3-4? The lack of a DE with pass rushing skills? That has been the knock since we changed to a 34 in 2009 and drafted Tyson Jackson. This team passed on a lot of 34 DEs that can rush the passer since too.

[Easy 6]

End is a big pass rush weakness no doubt.

We gotta hope Catapano can break into the rotation and see what gifts the draft and free agency offer.