playoff forecast update

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 08:30 AM

Things don't look to great for the home team...

See attachments in early post.

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 08:33 AM

Assuming a Pittsburgh victory tonight...

**Rain Man** · 10-31-2005, 02:30 PM

Have New Orleans and Houston seriously been eliminated from winning their divisions already? Or did they just get rounded to zero because of significant digit issues?

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Have New Orleans and Houston seriously been eliminated from winning their divisions already? Or did they just get rounded to zero because of significant digit issues?

They certainly have not been mathenatically eliminated.

The numbers were based on 5000 simulaitons and my code reports to two significant figures. If they won the division once in 5000 seasons it would be 0.02 percent, which would be reported by my software. So, in 5000 simulations they did not win their divisions once, indicating that their odds are pretty low. Now if they go on a 3 game winning streak (something that my software thinks is very improbable), they could re-enter the picture.

**Rain Man** · 10-31-2005, 04:14 PM

Ah. Thanks. I didn't think that they could be mathematically out yet. That'll take a couple more weeks.

HolmeZz · 10-31-2005, 04:20 PM

I thought we had the tie-breaker with Jacksonville as it stood right now.

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HolmeZz

I thought we had the tie-breaker with Jacksonville as it stood right now.

1. head-to-head not applicable
2. conference games both teams are 3-2
3. best record against common opponents, minimum of 4 games - we will meet this criteria by the end of the season. Right now the WLT in these games goes to Jacksonville as they are 2-1 in these games compared to 1-1 for KC.

Regardless, the present tiebreaker status does not necessarily matter in my predictions. I predict the average outcome of games for the rest of the season and determine playoff seedings from those. Jacksonville's advantage in the wild card race is because their power rating is better (because they have beaten some better teams) and their remaining schedule is easier with games against: Houston (twice), Baltimore, Tennessee (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, and San Francisco. Indy is probably the only game remaining on their schedule that they will not be favored to win.

We're doomed, I tell ya.

**DaFace** · 10-31-2005, 05:08 PM

I always find these things interesting. Depressing in this case, but interesting.

Did you say at some point that you were thinking of actually letting us play with the software, rather than just posting screen shots? I'd love to see how it's all set up.

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

I always find these things interesting. Depressing in this case, but interesting.

Did you say at some point that you were thinking of actually letting us play with the software, rather than just posting screen shots? I'd love to see how it's all set up.

Thanks for your interest. I'm hoping to get it up on the web for you to download by next week. My work schedule was killer through most of October, so I've just been posting screen shots so far. Things have calmed down enough that I've been able to do a little work on it the past week. It's getting real close. Once I get the program on the web, I can continue to tinker with it, adding features, etc.

SLAG · 10-31-2005, 11:37 PM

Need a ß Tester?

**cdcox** · 10-31-2005, 11:46 PM

In reality you will all be beta testers, as I will be continuing to upgrade the software. Once I get the first edition up, I'll post updates as soon as they compile and pass a standard test. The first edition won't have too many knobs to twist, but I already have enough feature additions in mind to keep me busy for the rest of the season, at least. Nevertheless, I am very open to ideas from others.

I really think it will be out by next week, latest.

SLAG · 10-31-2005, 11:50 PM

How about an αlpha tester

10-31-2005, 08:30 AM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2201769	playoff forecast update Things don't look to great for the home team... See attachments in early post.
Posts: 45,543

10-31-2005, 08:33 AM	#2
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2201769	Assuming a Pittsburgh victory tonight... Attached Thumbnails
Posts: 45,543

10-31-2005, 02:30 PM	#3
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3038491 VARSITY	Have New Orleans and Houston seriously been eliminated from winning their divisions already? Or did they just get rounded to zero because of significant digit issues? __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,663

10-31-2005, 04:14 PM	#5
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3038491 VARSITY	Ah. Thanks. I didn't think that they could be mathematically out yet. That'll take a couple more weeks. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,663

10-31-2005, 04:20 PM	#6
HolmeZz i guess its bittersweet poetry Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NeW HaVeN, CT Casino cash: $10004900	I thought we had the tie-breaker with Jacksonville as it stood right now.
Posts: 16,520

10-31-2005, 05:08 PM	#8
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1746899	I always find these things interesting. Depressing in this case, but interesting. Did you say at some point that you were thinking of actually letting us play with the software, rather than just posting screen shots? I'd love to see how it's all set up.
Posts: 51,964

10-31-2005, 11:37 PM	#10
SLAG Superbowl MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: OOOOOOOOOOOOOLATHE Casino cash: $9910252	Need a ß Tester? __________________ Ad astra per aspera
Posts: 11,177

10-31-2005, 11:46 PM	#11
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2201769	In reality you will all be beta testers, as I will be continuing to upgrade the software. Once I get the first edition up, I'll post updates as soon as they compile and pass a standard test. The first edition won't have too many knobs to twist, but I already have enough feature additions in mind to keep me busy for the rest of the season, at least. Nevertheless, I am very open to ideas from others. I really think it will be out by next week, latest.
Posts: 45,543

10-31-2005, 11:50 PM	#12
SLAG Superbowl MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: OOOOOOOOOOOOOLATHE Casino cash: $9910252	How about an αlpha tester __________________ Ad astra per aspera
Posts: 11,177