Talking sports and the first 5 games

[Mile High Mania]

There's not a great deal of real 'sports talk' happening in various threads, just a bunch of nut kicking and trashing Knowmo, all justified. First off, there's no doubt in my mind that the Chiefs are winning the division and the other three teams are fighting for the right to finish 2-3 games behind them at best for the 2-4 slots in the division.

Just wanted to get that out of the way first. I started this to get a general consensus of whether or not there will be any pressure put on KC from within the division after the first month.

Chiefs
Ravens / Bengals / @ Falcons / @ Chargers / Saints
3 of 5 at home, but it's a tough 3 games with those offenses they face. Chargers and Saints should be easy wins. I think KC starts off 4-1 and while a 5-0 start would not be shocking, I just don't think they escape those first 3 games undefeated.

Raiders
@ Chargers / @ Ravens / Panthers / Browns / @ Broncos
3 of 5 on the road, and I see 3-2 after this start. If they lose to the Chargers in week 1, then they have more issues than anyone imagined. I think the Ravens are the only definite loss, but they're not going 4-1.

Broncos
@ Seahawks / Steelers / @ Buccaneers / @ Jets / Raiders
3 of 5 on the road and given their history and likely starting Nix in week 1, you cannot honestly say any of these is a gimme win, but I am confident they can win their 2 home games. I think they lose at Tampa and the Jets, but will surprise a few in week 1. I think they are 3-2 after this stretch, but 2-3 is not unreasonable to suggest.

Chargers
Raiders / @ Panthers / @ Steelers / Chiefs / BYE / @ Broncos
I think this team is the weakest of the bunch to start off the season considering what they lost. They should have an easy win vs CAR, but it's a road game. This team is the biggest unknown to me, but I think they go 2-3, possibly 1-4 during this stretch.

So, I'll stick with KC not going undefeated and take the worst case with the others for the purposes of this one...

Chiefs 4-1
Raiders 3-2
Broncos 2-3
Chargers 1-4

And, there was no rhyme/reason for just looking at the first 5 games other than to just look at the early part of the schedules in digestible chunks.

Early on, I think there will be some hope that it's competitive, but it won't last. So, what do your records look like after 5 games?


(and no, this is not the start of a series or going back to the 2011 version of the 'state of the AFCW'. It's a one-time thing)

[Direckshun]

I think the Chiefs start kinda slow, a 6-4 start wouldn't surprise me before decimating the rest of their schedule.

Chiefs

The Ravens always start white hot (of course, so do we). And while I think the Ravens are merely a good team this year, not the great team of last year, I think they get the better of us like the Lions did last year. The Bengals game feels like a toss up to me, both teams are going to be ramping up, rather in their final form.

The Falcons game will be super fascinating to me -- that team looks and feels hungry this year. I still like our odds against them. The Chargers and Saints games will both be surprisingly close, I think, but we should win both. 3-2.

Raiders

The Raiders this year have a damn good defense, but that offense is just not going to make a ton of noise unless both of their young tight ends explode -- possible, but I wouldn't regard it as likely with Minshew/O'Connell. So any team with a good defense is going to have a leg up on this Raiders squad.

Chargers, Ravens, Browns all have good defenses. That Broncos game feels like an actual toss up to me, as I think they'll be occasionally spunkier than people give them credit for. The Panthers are so hapless, though. 2-3.

Broncos

This team is going nowhere this year. I am not an enormous fan of their defense, still. And I think Nix is going to be extremely limited this year. I think this is a very rough opening stretch because the Steelers, Bucs, Jets, and Raiders all have good defenses. The Seahawks feel like a wildcard to me. But this team, I feel, is going to be one of the league's worst. 0-5.

Chargers

The Chargers have a damn good team except for when it comes to offensive weaponry. And I actually like their talent on offense, but it's going to need a ton more massaging than it's needed in the past when you had a trio of fantastic receivers you could just roll out.

The Panthers and Broncos have little chance, but the Raiders may, given how talented that defense is. I still like the Chargers taking them on at home, first. The Steelers and Chiefs should have the upper hand, however. 3-2.

[Mile High Mania]

Interesting… the Chargers at 3-2 would be quite surprising to me.

[Rain Man]

Am I missing something about the Falcons? Why do people think they'll be good this year?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Am I missing something about the Falcons? Why do people think they'll be good this year?

They've made investments into the D, and I think Kirk Cousins is a dark horse MVP candidate for the first 6-8 weeks of the season before it all collapses on him down the stretch, as per usual.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

They've made investments into the D, and I think Kirk Cousins is a dark horse MVP candidate for the first 6-8 weeks of the season before it all collapses on him down the stretch, as per usual.

I realize that I don't watch a lot of Kirk Cousins games, but there's a reason for that. I think maybe they can win the division with him, but there's a wide gap between "win the NFC South" and "good football team".

[mr. tegu]

The Chiefs will be 5-0.
The Raiders 2-3.
Broncos 1-4. They beat the Raiders.
Chargers 3-2. But if they lose to the Raiders then the Raiders are 3-2 and Chargers 2-3.

[ChiefGator]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

And while I think the Ravens are merely a good team this year, not the great team of last year,

Just interested... why do you think the Ravens will only be good, not great like last year?

Did I miss something in the offseason?

[BigRedChief]

Yeah, the Chiefs always seem to be up to speed after training camp but don't turn on that full passion until they get a loss put on them.

I hope they come fired up on Opening day after blowing last years opener when they didnt bring their best game,

No matter how many games we lose, we will win the AFC west and get into the playoffs. Then betting on the Chiefs to lose in the playoffs is a bad bet.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Am I missing something about the Falcons? Why do people think they'll be good this year?

2 QB1s!

[myselff77]

Chiefs 4-1
Raiders 2-3
Broncos 1-4
Chargers 3-2

[TEX]

KC 4-1
LAR 3-2
DEN 1-4
LAC 1-4

[Rausch]

Would prefer that KC is a +700 to +800 to win the SB after the first month.

Unlikely, but if they do I'm pawning the wife's jewelry and going all in...

[Mile High Mania]

My hunch is that most of those putting KC at 4-1 are leaning towards the 1 loss being to the Bengals, yeah?

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I realize that I don't watch a lot of Kirk Cousins games, but there's a reason for that. I think maybe they can win the division with him, but there's a wide gap between "win the NFC South" and "good football team".

They are projected to have both a top-10 OL and DL. Bijan Robinson. They have three good WRs (supposed to be very talented, but inexperienced. And of course, Kirk Cousins, media darling. They added Judon and Simmons to their defense.


They'll obviously be better than last season. But we still don't know how spry Kirk is going to be recovering from that ACL. Plus, he's in a new offense, with all new pieces, and for the first time in his career, he doesn't have an all-world WR to lean on; he's going to have to develop and elevate his young receiving corps.

Pretty sure they'll vie for the Division title and should make the playoffs. Probably go one and done in postseason play, imho.