Ryan Sims biggest bust of 2002 draft

FringeNC · 04-24-2005, 07:37 AM

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/sto...date=4/20/2005

Grab bag 2005

By MARK McGUIRE, Staff writer
First published: Wednesday, April 20, 2005

The 2005 NFL draft has been called hit-or-miss, one filled with uncertainty -- starting with the very first pick. But that's what it always is, even if it doesn't seem that way on draft day.

The San Francisco 49ers, who own the No. 1 overall selection, may want to read this. Or not. Or just trade down.

If San Francisco stays in the top spot in this year's draft, the Niners would likely take either California QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah quarterback Alex Smith, with Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as an outside possibility.

Whomever San Francisco selects, the franchise will have only a one-in-five chance of picking the man who will go on to be the best player coming out in 2005, according to an analysis of the last two decades of NFL drafts.

That's the same 20 percent chance the Niners have of picking the biggest bust in the draft, according to recent history. (Anybody remember Aundray Bruce? Steve Emtman?)

Don't laugh, Miami Dolphin fans: Your not sitting any prettier at No. 2. The same dangerous odds apply to the second position in the first round, which in 1998 produced arguably the biggest bust of all time: San Diego Charger quarterback "Cryin' " Ryan Leaf.

Let's be clear: That doesn't mean in past drafts a team was wrong to select a given player, even if he didn't pan out. For example, based on pre-draft analysis Leaf was not a bad pick. He just turned out to be a bad pro.

And no expert projected 2000 sixth-rounder Tom Brady to lead his team to three Super Bowl titles in his first five seasons.

An admittedly subjective review of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks reveals only four proved to be worthy of the top selections. To be fair, that includes a pair of drafts headed by future Hall of Famers (Bruce Smith, 1985, and Troy Aikman, 1989) who were bettered only by other sure-fire Canton inductees (Jerry Rice and Barry Sanders).

Still, the best player in a given draft is likely to come from one of the top three spots (45 percent) or certainly the first round (85 percent).

But if you are looking for the draft's biggest steals -- and to build multi-Super Bowl champions -- keep an eye on picks 190-199 (which this year falls in the middle of sixth round).

That's where the Denver Broncos got Shannon Sharpe (192nd, 1990) and Terrell Davis (196th, 1995). Meanwhile, the New England Patriots drafted two of their most important offensive cogs in that area: Troy Brown (198th, 1993) and -- in the biggest draft steal of the past two decades -- Brady (199th, 2000).

Of course, talking busts and steals (best value considering where a player was selected) and shoulda-been No. 1s involves opinion. So here's where the above numbers are coming from, a statistical yet subjective look at the last 20 years of the NFL draft. Keep in mind the determinations of the past four drafts can change as players from those years continue to blossom or bottom out:

2004*

1st Overall: Eli Manning (San Diego Chargers; traded to New York Giants). Should Have Been: Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (Pittsburgh Steelers). Biggest Bust: Rashaun Woods, 31st (San Francisco 49ers). Biggest Steal: Erik Coleman, 143rd, 5th round (New York Jets).

2003*

1st Overall: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals). Should Have Been: Byron Leftwich, 7th (Jacksonville Jaguars). Biggest Bust: Johnathan Sullivan, 6th (New Orleans Saints). Biggest Steal: Willis McGahee, 23rd, (Buffalo Bills).

2002*

1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots).

2001*

1st Overall: Michael Vick, (Atlanta Falcons). Should Have Been: Vick. Biggest Bust: David Terrell, 8th (Chicago Bears). Biggest Steal: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 204th, 7th round (Bengals).

2000*

1st Overall: Courtney Brown (Cleveland Browns). Should Have Been: Tom Brady, 199th, 6th round (Patriots). Biggest Bust: Brown. Biggest Steal: Brady.

1999

1st Overall: Tim Couch (Browns). Should Have Been: Donovan McNabb, 2nd (Philadelphia Eagles). Biggest Bust: Akili Smith, 3rd (Bengals). Biggest Steal: Donald Driver, 213th, 7th round (Green Bay Packers).

1998

1st Overall: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Should Have Been: Manning. Biggest Bust: Ryan Leaf, 2nd (Chargers). Biggest Steal: Matt Hasselbeck, 187th, 6th round (Packers).

1997

1st Overall: Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams). Should Have Been: Pace. Biggest Bust: Darrell Russell, 2nd (Oakland Raiders). Biggest Steal: Tony Gonzalez, 13th (Chiefs).

1996

1st Overall: Keyshawn Johnson (Jets). Should Have Been: Ray Lewis, 26th (Baltimore Ravens). Biggest Bust: Lawrence Phillips, 6th (Rams). Biggest Steal: Lewis.

1995

1st Overall: Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals). Should Have Been: Steve McNair, 3rd, (Houston Oilers). Biggest Bust: Carter. Biggest Steal: Terrell Davis, 196th, 6th round (Denver Broncos).

1994

(Seven-round draft era begins) 1st Overall: Dan Wilkinson (Bengals). Should Have Been: Marshall Faulk, 2nd (Colts). Biggest Bust: Heath Shuler, 3rd (Washington Redskins). Biggest Steal: Tom Nalen, 218th, 7th round (Broncos).

1993

(Eight rounds) 1st Overall: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots). Should Have Been: Bledsoe. Biggest Bust: Eric Curry, 6th (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Biggest Steal: Troy Brown, 198th, 7th round (Patriots).

1992

(Last year with 12 rounds) 1st Overall: Steve Emtman (Colts). Should Have Been: Jimmy Smith, 36th, second round (Dallas Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Emtman. Biggest Steal: Mark Chmura, 157th, 6th round (Packers).

1991

1st Overall: Russell Maryland (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Brett Favre, 33rd, 2nd round (Falcons). Biggest Bust: Mike Croel, 4th (Broncos). Biggest Steal: Favre.

1990

1st Overall: Jeff George (Colts). Should Have Been: Emmitt Smith, 17th (Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Blair Thomas, 2nd (Jets). Biggest Steal: Shannon Sharpe, 192th, 7th round (Broncos).

1989

1st Overall: Troy Aikman (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Barry Sanders, 3rd (Detroit Lions). Biggest Bust: Tony Mandarich, 2nd (Packers). Biggest Steal: Mark Stepnoski, 57th, 3rd round (Cowboys).

1988

1st Overall: Aundray Bruce (Falcons). Should Have Been: Tim Brown, 6th (Los Angeles Raiders). Biggest Bust: Bruce. Biggest Steal: Bill Romanowski, 80th, 3rd round (49ers).

1987

1st Overall: Vinny Testaverde (Buccaneers). Should Have Been: Rod Woodson, 10th (Steelers). Biggest Bust: Brent Fullwood, 4th (Packers). Biggest Steal: Bo Jackson, 183rd, 7th round (Raiders).

1986

1st Overall: Tony Casillas (Falcons). Should Have Been: Leslie O'Neal, 8th (Chargers). Biggest Bust: Anthony Bell, 5th (St. Louis Cardinals). Biggest Steal: Mark Rypien, 146th, 6th round (Redskins).

1985

1st Overall: Bruce Smith (Bills). Should Have Been: Jerry Rice, 16th (49ers). Biggest Bust: George Adams, 19th (Giants) Biggest Steal: Rice.

(* Evaluation subject to change)

NaptownChief · 04-24-2005, 07:43 AM

No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

FringeNC · 04-24-2005, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NaptownChief

No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

Based on football skills alone, I agree with you. Vick is so overrated. Atlanta wouldn't even throw the ball against continual 7-8 man fronts against Philly because they had absolultely no confidence in Vick.

...but when you look at Vick's star power -- Atlanta has 3 MNF home games (!), and didn't they recently make Vick the highest paid player in the league?

**Skip Towne** · 04-24-2005, 08:28 AM

Sims is certainly a candidate for bust of the year.

suds79 · 04-24-2005, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NaptownChief

No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

Very True. Love to watch Vick but I can name about 7 other QBs better than him. LT's the man.

And unfortunately I agree that Ryan Sims was the biggest bust of that years draft and can't see any reason why that'd all of a sudden turn around.... Bust.

keg in kc · 04-24-2005, 08:34 AM

He's been a bust so far, no doubt. 2005 is pretty much his last chance to redeem himself. No excuses left, he's got a scheme to fit his 'talent', he's been in that scheme for 2 years, and he's got enough personnel around him now to not use that as an excuse.

But I'd have to say Wendall Bryant -- the guy I wanted -- is a bigger bust. 12th pick, 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks.

The amazing thing to me is that out of all those big d-linemen taken early that draft, only John Henderson has done anything.

whoman69 · 04-24-2005, 12:18 PM

I think he's certainly up there, but Joey Harrington has not had any more success as a starter than Sims had and he was at #3 overall. How many guys in the upper half of the first round are now out of the NFL or have not earned a starting spot.

Ultra Peanut · 04-24-2005, 12:20 PM

The Vick/Tomlinson/Brees trade was outstanding, for both teams.

Ultra Peanut · 04-24-2005, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

But I'd have to say Wendall Bryant -- the guy I wanted -- is a bigger bust. 12th pick, 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks.

Exactly what I was going to say, right down to the "I wanted him" part.

**Tribal Warfare** · 04-24-2005, 12:41 PM

I wanted John Henderson, I guess college production didn't count that year

SLAG · 03-10-2006, 03:57 PM

damn we need a good DL

Brock · 03-10-2006, 04:08 PM

Anyone who "thinks" Ryan Sims is a bigger bust than Joey Harrington is a complete douchebag.

SLAG · 03-10-2006, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

Anyone who "thinks" Ryan Sims is a bigger bust than Joey Harrington is a complete douchebag.

I think Joey might have more tackles than Ryan..... For sure more INT's

BigChiefFan · 03-10-2006, 04:12 PM

Sims has been a HUGE disappointment. He's one player that we should have approached about cap relief. What a waste. I've been patient with him, but after last year, I would say he's a officially a BUST. Could he turn it around? Sure, but so far, he hasn't even come close to being an impact D-lineman.

HolmeZz · 03-10-2006, 04:14 PM

:| The Bengals should have drafted Leftwich over Palmer? And Vick over Tomlinson?

04-24-2005, 07:37 AM
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $1556014	Ryan Sims biggest bust of 2002 draft http://timesunion.com/AspStories/sto...date=4/20/2005 Grab bag 2005 By MARK McGUIRE, Staff writer First published: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 The 2005 NFL draft has been called hit-or-miss, one filled with uncertainty -- starting with the very first pick. But that's what it always is, even if it doesn't seem that way on draft day. The San Francisco 49ers, who own the No. 1 overall selection, may want to read this. Or not. Or just trade down. If San Francisco stays in the top spot in this year's draft, the Niners would likely take either California QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah quarterback Alex Smith, with Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as an outside possibility. Whomever San Francisco selects, the franchise will have only a one-in-five chance of picking the man who will go on to be the best player coming out in 2005, according to an analysis of the last two decades of NFL drafts. That's the same 20 percent chance the Niners have of picking the biggest bust in the draft, according to recent history. (Anybody remember Aundray Bruce? Steve Emtman?) Don't laugh, Miami Dolphin fans: Your not sitting any prettier at No. 2. The same dangerous odds apply to the second position in the first round, which in 1998 produced arguably the biggest bust of all time: San Diego Charger quarterback "Cryin' " Ryan Leaf. Let's be clear: That doesn't mean in past drafts a team was wrong to select a given player, even if he didn't pan out. For example, based on pre-draft analysis Leaf was not a bad pick. He just turned out to be a bad pro. And no expert projected 2000 sixth-rounder Tom Brady to lead his team to three Super Bowl titles in his first five seasons. An admittedly subjective review of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks reveals only four proved to be worthy of the top selections. To be fair, that includes a pair of drafts headed by future Hall of Famers (Bruce Smith, 1985, and Troy Aikman, 1989) who were bettered only by other sure-fire Canton inductees (Jerry Rice and Barry Sanders). Still, the best player in a given draft is likely to come from one of the top three spots (45 percent) or certainly the first round (85 percent). But if you are looking for the draft's biggest steals -- and to build multi-Super Bowl champions -- keep an eye on picks 190-199 (which this year falls in the middle of sixth round). That's where the Denver Broncos got Shannon Sharpe (192nd, 1990) and Terrell Davis (196th, 1995). Meanwhile, the New England Patriots drafted two of their most important offensive cogs in that area: Troy Brown (198th, 1993) and -- in the biggest draft steal of the past two decades -- Brady (199th, 2000). Of course, talking busts and steals (best value considering where a player was selected) and shoulda-been No. 1s involves opinion. So here's where the above numbers are coming from, a statistical yet subjective look at the last 20 years of the NFL draft. Keep in mind the determinations of the past four drafts can change as players from those years continue to blossom or bottom out: 2004* 1st Overall: Eli Manning (San Diego Chargers; traded to New York Giants). Should Have Been: Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (Pittsburgh Steelers). Biggest Bust: Rashaun Woods, 31st (San Francisco 49ers). Biggest Steal: Erik Coleman, 143rd, 5th round (New York Jets). 2003* 1st Overall: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals). Should Have Been: Byron Leftwich, 7th (Jacksonville Jaguars). Biggest Bust: Johnathan Sullivan, 6th (New Orleans Saints). Biggest Steal: Willis McGahee, 23rd, (Buffalo Bills). 2002* 1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots). 2001* 1st Overall: Michael Vick, (Atlanta Falcons). Should Have Been: Vick. Biggest Bust: David Terrell, 8th (Chicago Bears). Biggest Steal: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 204th, 7th round (Bengals). 2000* 1st Overall: Courtney Brown (Cleveland Browns). Should Have Been: Tom Brady, 199th, 6th round (Patriots). Biggest Bust: Brown. Biggest Steal: Brady. 1999 1st Overall: Tim Couch (Browns). Should Have Been: Donovan McNabb, 2nd (Philadelphia Eagles). Biggest Bust: Akili Smith, 3rd (Bengals). Biggest Steal: Donald Driver, 213th, 7th round (Green Bay Packers). 1998 1st Overall: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Should Have Been: Manning. Biggest Bust: Ryan Leaf, 2nd (Chargers). Biggest Steal: Matt Hasselbeck, 187th, 6th round (Packers). 1997 1st Overall: Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams). Should Have Been: Pace. Biggest Bust: Darrell Russell, 2nd (Oakland Raiders). Biggest Steal: Tony Gonzalez, 13th (Chiefs). 1996 1st Overall: Keyshawn Johnson (Jets). Should Have Been: Ray Lewis, 26th (Baltimore Ravens). Biggest Bust: Lawrence Phillips, 6th (Rams). Biggest Steal: Lewis. 1995 1st Overall: Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals). Should Have Been: Steve McNair, 3rd, (Houston Oilers). Biggest Bust: Carter. Biggest Steal: Terrell Davis, 196th, 6th round (Denver Broncos). 1994 (Seven-round draft era begins) 1st Overall: Dan Wilkinson (Bengals). Should Have Been: Marshall Faulk, 2nd (Colts). Biggest Bust: Heath Shuler, 3rd (Washington Redskins). Biggest Steal: Tom Nalen, 218th, 7th round (Broncos). 1993 (Eight rounds) 1st Overall: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots). Should Have Been: Bledsoe. Biggest Bust: Eric Curry, 6th (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Biggest Steal: Troy Brown, 198th, 7th round (Patriots). 1992 (Last year with 12 rounds) 1st Overall: Steve Emtman (Colts). Should Have Been: Jimmy Smith, 36th, second round (Dallas Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Emtman. Biggest Steal: Mark Chmura, 157th, 6th round (Packers). 1991 1st Overall: Russell Maryland (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Brett Favre, 33rd, 2nd round (Falcons). Biggest Bust: Mike Croel, 4th (Broncos). Biggest Steal: Favre. 1990 1st Overall: Jeff George (Colts). Should Have Been: Emmitt Smith, 17th (Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Blair Thomas, 2nd (Jets). Biggest Steal: Shannon Sharpe, 192th, 7th round (Broncos). 1989 1st Overall: Troy Aikman (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Barry Sanders, 3rd (Detroit Lions). Biggest Bust: Tony Mandarich, 2nd (Packers). Biggest Steal: Mark Stepnoski, 57th, 3rd round (Cowboys). 1988 1st Overall: Aundray Bruce (Falcons). Should Have Been: Tim Brown, 6th (Los Angeles Raiders). Biggest Bust: Bruce. Biggest Steal: Bill Romanowski, 80th, 3rd round (49ers). 1987 1st Overall: Vinny Testaverde (Buccaneers). Should Have Been: Rod Woodson, 10th (Steelers). Biggest Bust: Brent Fullwood, 4th (Packers). Biggest Steal: Bo Jackson, 183rd, 7th round (Raiders). 1986 1st Overall: Tony Casillas (Falcons). Should Have Been: Leslie O'Neal, 8th (Chargers). Biggest Bust: Anthony Bell, 5th (St. Louis Cardinals). Biggest Steal: Mark Rypien, 146th, 6th round (Redskins). 1985 1st Overall: Bruce Smith (Bills). Should Have Been: Jerry Rice, 16th (49ers). Biggest Bust: George Adams, 19th (Giants) Biggest Steal: Rice. (* Evaluation subject to change)
Posts: 10,173

04-24-2005, 07:43 AM	#2
NaptownChief Football Pimp Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Indianapolis,IN Casino cash: $9974900	No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away. As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish. Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor. __________________ "We weren't worth a damn," the Kansas City Chiefs head coach said, shaking his head. "I'm not worth a damn. No one's worth a damn..." Former President of the Eric Downing Fan Club and Current President of the Kris"Secret Weapon"Wilson Fan Club
Posts: 4,357

04-24-2005, 08:28 AM	#4
Skip Towne Supporter Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: T-Town Casino cash: $10004900	Sims is certainly a candidate for bust of the year.
Posts: 69,689

04-24-2005, 08:34 AM	#6
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	He's been a bust so far, no doubt. 2005 is pretty much his last chance to redeem himself. No excuses left, he's got a scheme to fit his 'talent', he's been in that scheme for 2 years, and he's got enough personnel around him now to not use that as an excuse. But I'd have to say Wendall Bryant -- the guy I wanted -- is a bigger bust. 12th pick, 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks. The amazing thing to me is that out of all those big d-linemen taken early that draft, only John Henderson has done anything.
Posts: 58,682

04-24-2005, 12:20 PM	#8
Ultra Peanut v^V^v^V^v^V^ Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Holland* Casino cash: $10005177	The Vick/Tomlinson/Brees trade was outstanding, for both teams. __________________
Posts: 39,518

04-24-2005, 12:41 PM	#10
Tribal Warfare The Boom Boom Room Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Far Beyond Comprehension Casino cash: $652813	I wanted John Henderson, I guess college production didn't count that year __________________
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03-10-2006, 03:57 PM	#11
SLAG Superbowl MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: OOOOOOOOOOOOOLATHE Casino cash: $9910252	damn we need a good DL __________________ Ad astra per aspera
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03-10-2006, 04:08 PM	#12
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Anyone who "thinks" Ryan Sims is a bigger bust than Joey Harrington is a complete douchebag.
Posts: 47,314

03-10-2006, 04:12 PM	#14
BigChiefFan MVP Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: In the Top 10 Casino cash: $9924205	Sims has been a HUGE disappointment. He's one player that we should have approached about cap relief. What a waste. I've been patient with him, but after last year, I would say he's a officially a BUST. Could he turn it around? Sure, but so far, he hasn't even come close to being an impact D-lineman. __________________ A 35 year drought can make you thirsty.
Posts: 15,777

03-10-2006, 04:14 PM	#15
HolmeZz i guess its bittersweet poetry Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NeW HaVeN, CT Casino cash: $10004900	:\| The Bengals should have drafted Leftwich over Palmer? And Vick over Tomlinson?
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