Chiefs Suck for Luck comes down to Chiefs vs Dolphins

**MahiMike** · 10-04-2011, 01:24 PM

By now, everyone has heard of the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Lousy teams surely to miss the playoffs may be inclined to tank the season in order to grab next year's #1 pick. That's where the consensus pick is Stanford's Andrew Luck. The QB so good that Mel Kiper's hair gets mussed up from the excitement of watching him.

If you're not interested in this concept of tanking a season for the betterment of your team, you can go ahead and skip this article. For those of us fans that are fed up with our team's decades of struggles, keep reading.

Right now, none of these teams seem to have embraced this concept willfully. They currently all seem to be - get this - trying to win...lol. I know, I know. Silly isn't it? Of course, this exercise is almost futile but fun nonetheless. Besides, what do fans of these teams have to look forward to anyway? I'm estimating based on a plus/minus of 2 games for each team. There's always the upset or injury that no one can account for.

I took the liberty of mapping out the schedule of each team in the Suck for Luck campaign. I only included teams that for sure could use a new QB. I didn't include lousy teams that just signed their QB recently (Panthers, Jags, Vikings, etc.). Using this information, I came up with 5 main teams; Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins, Broncos and Seahawks. The 1st 4 play against each other and have pivotal matches that will determine their Champion suckage position.

The wildcard team is the Seahawks. Playing in the NFC, they don't face any of the other teams. Still, playing in their woeful division is good for at least a couple games. I can't see how they won't win at least 4 games. They did make the playoffs last year and their schedule is similar to last year's.

Based on this analysis, I've concluded that there could be a 4 way tie for the Championship. I could see the Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins and Broncos each winning 3 games. That would make for a VERY interesting final week. Who will have more turnovers January 1st? Chiefs or Broncos? Will the Colts lay down to division rival Jags? The Jets have been losing, so their January 1st matchup with the Dolphins is already a foregone conclusion.

Assuming the Broncos have no chance vs the Bears or Patriots, their Championship game could actually come a couple weeks early vs the Vikings. Do they pre-tank? Or wait till the last game vs the Chiefs? Something else interesting about New Year's Day? The Chiefs/Broncos game is at 4:00 p.m. EST. By then, the fate of all the other teams in the Suckage Championship will be determined. Interesting indeed.

So, in summary, based on tiebreaker scenarios, the Dolphins actually have the best shot. The Chiefs/Dolphins game is the "Ultimate Suck" game. Since it's in KC, I'll give the Chiefs the unfortunate win here. Since the Chiefs/Broncos figure to split, they tie. Next tie breaker is common opponent which happens to be - the Dolphins.

Personally, as a Chiefs fan of over 40 years, I'd love to see the Dolphins sign Larry Czonka's son before the big game. Otherwise, I'll be doubly ticked if I hear these words next April; "With the 1st pick in the 2012 draft, King Carl Peterson selects...Andrew Luck!".

Chiefs schedule (Estimated 3 wins)

L - Sep 11 Bills
L - Sep 18 @Lions
L - Sep 25 @Chargers
W - Oct 2 Vikes
L? -Oct 9 @Colts (KEY GAME!)
L? -Oct 23 @Raiders
L? -Oct 31 Chargers
W? -Nov 6 Dolphins ("Ultimate Suck" game!)
W? -Nov 13 Broncos (KEY GAME!)
L? -Nov 21 @Patriots
L? -Nov 27 Steelers
L? -Dec 4 @Bears
L? -Dec 11 @Jets
L? -Dec 18 Packers
L? -Dec 24 Raiders
L? -Jan 1 @Broncos (Championship KEY GAME!)

Colts schedule (Estimated 3 wins)

L - Texans
L - Browns
L - Steelers
L - Bucs
W - Chiefs (KEY GAME)
W - Bengals
L - Saints
L - Titans
L - Falcons
W - Jags
L - Panthers
L - Patriots
L - Ravens
L - Titans
L - Texans
L - Jags (Championship KEY GAME!)

Dolphins schedule (Estimated 3 wins)

L - Patriots
L - Texans
L - Browns
L - Chargers
L? - Jets
W? - Broncos (KEY GAME)
W? - Giants
L? - Chiefs ("Ultimate Suck" game!)
L? - Redskins
W? - Bills
L? - Cowbows
L? - Raiders
L? - Eagles
L? - Bills
L? - Patriots
L? - Jets (Championship KEY GAME!)

Broncos schedule (Estimated 3 wins)

L - Raiders
W - Bengals
L - Titans
L - Packers
L? - Chargers
L? - Dolphins (KEY GAME)
L? - Lions
L? - Raiders
L? - Chiefs (KEY GAME)
L? - Jets
L? - Chargers
W? - Vikings
L? - Bears
L? - Patriots
L? - Bills
W? - Chiefs (Championship KEY GAME!)

Seahawks schedule (Estimated 4 wins)

L - 49ers
L - Steelers
W - cardinals
L - Falcons
L? - Giants
W? - Browns
W? - Bengals
L? - Cowboys
L? - Ravens
W? - Rams
L? - Redskins
L? - Eagles
L? - Rams
L? - Bears
L? - 49ers

ShowtimeSBMVP · 10-04-2011, 01:25 PM

Great another Luck thread who the chiefs wont be getting.

jd1020 · 10-04-2011, 01:26 PM

Too many estimated 3 win teams on that list for the Chiefs to have any hope of getting Luck. Time to move on.

If the Chiefs are going to grab a 1st round QB its going to be Barkley/Jones or none at all. They are top 5 bad, not the worst.

tboss27 · 10-04-2011, 01:31 PM

You think the Dolphins will beat the Giants? There's no way to predict this right now, still way too many games and the NFL has surprise wins every week. Based on MIA schedule though they look to me like they have the highest probability of getting Luck.

**Bane** · 10-04-2011, 01:32 PM

Suck for Lion Heart /Mecca

wutamess · 10-04-2011, 01:32 PM

Vikings need a qb.

**Rain Man** · 10-04-2011, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wutamess

Vikings need a qb.

I think he's assuming that Christian Ponder is their guy.

A viable scenario for the Chiefs is that a team like the Vikings or Panthers or Jaguars ends up with the pick, in which case they either trade the pick or they trade their current young quarterback (Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, etc.) It would seem more likely that they'd trade the pick due to contract considerations, or if they trade the player it'd have to be at a steep discount given that they'd be under the old contracting rules. So I don't think it's necessary to love every game and still end up with a top-notch quarterback.

Three7s · 10-04-2011, 01:43 PM

Oh shit, looking at the Dolphins schedule, it looks like their best chance at a victory is against the Chiefs. If they lose that one, 0-16 looks like reality.

jd1020 · 10-04-2011, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I think he's assuming that Christian Ponder is their guy.

A viable scenario for the Chiefs is that a team like the Vikings or Panthers or Jaguars ends up with the pick, in which case they either trade the pick or they trade their current young quarterback (Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, etc.) It would seem more likely that they'd trade the pick due to contract considerations, or if they trade the player it'd have to be at a steep discount given that they'd be under the old contracting rules. So I don't think it's necessary to love every game and still end up with a top-notch quarterback.

No chance the Panthers trade Newton.

The Rams are the only team I think have a tough choice if they get the #1 pick. Me personally, I don't think Bradford has lived up to the hype but he still has enough around him that they could get a decent price for him.

If the Vikings and Jaguars young QB's turn out to be decent they wont be drafting #1. If they don't then their decision is that much easier.

**Rain Man** · 10-04-2011, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

No chance the Panthers trade Newton.

The Rams are the only team I think have a tough choice if they get the #1 pick. Me personally, I don't think Bradford has lived up to the hype but he still has enough around him that they could get a decent price for him.

If they Vikings and Jaguars young QB's turn out to be decent they wont be drafting #1. If they don't then their decision is that much easier.

So let's walk through all of the teams and consider whether they'd get the #1 pick or trade for it.

Teams that won't get #1 and won't trade for #1:

Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Titans, Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Bears, Lions, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers

Teams that won't get #1 but might trade for #1:

Bills, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals, 49ers

Teams with a reasonable shot at getting #1 and would trade it or another young #1 QB

Jaguars, Vikings, Panthers, Rams

Teams with a halfway reasonable shot at getting #1 and won't trade it.

Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs (though I think we'll end up around 13-3 so I'm just humoring the pro-loser group), Broncos, Seahawks

Does this seem reasonable? So out of nine teams that have a reasonable shot at #1 (including the Chiefs even though they'll finish at 13-3), each has an 11 percent chance of getting the pick. And of those, four will trade it (or another top QB who is young) to one of 13 teams that wants it.

So if we assume all odds are equal, the Chiefs have an 11 percent chance of getting the pick outright and roughly a 3 percent chance (4/9*1/13) of trading for it.

jd1020 · 10-04-2011, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

So let's walk through all of the teams and consider whether they'd get the #1 pick or trade for it.

Teams that won't get #1 and won't trade for #1:

Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Titans, Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Bears, Lions, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers

Teams that won't get #1 but might trade for #1:

Bills, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals, 49ers

Teams with a reasonable shot at getting #1 and would trade it or another young #1 QB

Jaguars, Vikings, Panthers, Rams

Teams with a halfway reasonable shot at getting #1 and won't trade it.

Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs (though I think we'll end up around 13-3 so I'm just humoring the pro-loser group), Broncos, Seahawks

Does this seem reasonable? So out of nine teams that have a reasonable shot at #1 (including the Chiefs even though they'll finish at 13-3), each has an 11 percent chance of getting the pick. And of those, four will trade it (or another top QB who is young) to one of 13 teams that wants it.

So if we assume all odds are equal, the Chiefs have an 11 percent chance of getting the pick outright and roughly a 3 percent chance (4/9*1/13) of trading for it.

I think the Chiefs have a 0% chance of trading for it. Pioli is a trade down guy who thinks he's going to score another Brady.

**Rain Man** · 10-04-2011, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

I think the Chiefs have a 0% chance of trading for it.

My bad. I meant "trade for it or another young #1 QB", a la Ponder, Bradford, Newton, or Gabbert.

jd1020 · 10-04-2011, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

My bad. I meant "trade for it or another young #1 QB", a la Ponder, Bradford, Newton, or Gabbert.

I'd buy Ponder or Gabbert if it meant a 2nd round pick at most and picking Matt Kalil with our #1. I think the price tag on Bradford/Newton would be way too high.

**The Franchise** · 10-04-2011, 02:09 PM

There is no guarantee that a team like the Rams or Panthers would trade out of the #1 pick if they do get it.

Say the Rams get the #1 pick. They could take the best available trade down offer....but then they have no guarantee of getting a dynamic playmaker. I could see them staying put and taking a WR that high. Stranger things have happened...

**Rain Man** · 10-04-2011, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

There is no guarantee that a team like the Rams or Panthers would trade out of the #1 pick if they do get it.

Say the Rams get the #1 pick. They could take the best available trade down offer....but then they have no guarantee of getting a dynamic playmaker. I could see them staying put and taking a WR that high. Stranger things have happened...

If that's true, that's even better, because we're more interested in the quarterback who would now slide to #2.

10-04-2011, 01:24 PM
MahiMike He's Mahomie! Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Jax, FL Casino cash: $10023443	Suck for Luck comes down to Chiefs vs Dolphins By now, everyone has heard of the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Lousy teams surely to miss the playoffs may be inclined to tank the season in order to grab next year's #1 pick. That's where the consensus pick is Stanford's Andrew Luck. The QB so good that Mel Kiper's hair gets mussed up from the excitement of watching him. If you're not interested in this concept of tanking a season for the betterment of your team, you can go ahead and skip this article. For those of us fans that are fed up with our team's decades of struggles, keep reading. Right now, none of these teams seem to have embraced this concept willfully. They currently all seem to be - get this - trying to win...lol. I know, I know. Silly isn't it? Of course, this exercise is almost futile but fun nonetheless. Besides, what do fans of these teams have to look forward to anyway? I'm estimating based on a plus/minus of 2 games for each team. There's always the upset or injury that no one can account for. I took the liberty of mapping out the schedule of each team in the Suck for Luck campaign. I only included teams that for sure could use a new QB. I didn't include lousy teams that just signed their QB recently (Panthers, Jags, Vikings, etc.). Using this information, I came up with 5 main teams; Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins, Broncos and Seahawks. The 1st 4 play against each other and have pivotal matches that will determine their Champion suckage position. The wildcard team is the Seahawks. Playing in the NFC, they don't face any of the other teams. Still, playing in their woeful division is good for at least a couple games. I can't see how they won't win at least 4 games. They did make the playoffs last year and their schedule is similar to last year's. Based on this analysis, I've concluded that there could be a 4 way tie for the Championship. I could see the Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins and Broncos each winning 3 games. That would make for a VERY interesting final week. Who will have more turnovers January 1st? Chiefs or Broncos? Will the Colts lay down to division rival Jags? The Jets have been losing, so their January 1st matchup with the Dolphins is already a foregone conclusion. Assuming the Broncos have no chance vs the Bears or Patriots, their Championship game could actually come a couple weeks early vs the Vikings. Do they pre-tank? Or wait till the last game vs the Chiefs? Something else interesting about New Year's Day? The Chiefs/Broncos game is at 4:00 p.m. EST. By then, the fate of all the other teams in the Suckage Championship will be determined. Interesting indeed. So, in summary, based on tiebreaker scenarios, the Dolphins actually have the best shot. The Chiefs/Dolphins game is the "Ultimate Suck" game. Since it's in KC, I'll give the Chiefs the unfortunate win here. Since the Chiefs/Broncos figure to split, they tie. Next tie breaker is common opponent which happens to be - the Dolphins. Personally, as a Chiefs fan of over 40 years, I'd love to see the Dolphins sign Larry Czonka's son before the big game. Otherwise, I'll be doubly ticked if I hear these words next April; "With the 1st pick in the 2012 draft, King Carl Peterson selects...Andrew Luck!". Chiefs schedule (Estimated 3 wins) L - Sep 11 Bills L - Sep 18 @Lions L - Sep 25 @Chargers W - Oct 2 Vikes L? -Oct 9 @Colts (KEY GAME!) L? -Oct 23 @Raiders L? -Oct 31 Chargers W? -Nov 6 Dolphins ("Ultimate Suck" game!) W? -Nov 13 Broncos (KEY GAME!) L? -Nov 21 @Patriots L? -Nov 27 Steelers L? -Dec 4 @Bears L? -Dec 11 @Jets L? -Dec 18 Packers L? -Dec 24 Raiders L? -Jan 1 @Broncos (Championship KEY GAME!) Colts schedule (Estimated 3 wins) L - Texans L - Browns L - Steelers L - Bucs W - Chiefs (KEY GAME) W - Bengals L - Saints L - Titans L - Falcons W - Jags L - Panthers L - Patriots L - Ravens L - Titans L - Texans L - Jags (Championship KEY GAME!) Dolphins schedule (Estimated 3 wins) L - Patriots L - Texans L - Browns L - Chargers L? - Jets W? - Broncos (KEY GAME) W? - Giants L? - Chiefs ("Ultimate Suck" game!) L? - Redskins W? - Bills L? - Cowbows L? - Raiders L? - Eagles L? - Bills L? - Patriots L? - Jets (Championship KEY GAME!) Broncos schedule (Estimated 3 wins) L - Raiders W - Bengals L - Titans L - Packers L? - Chargers L? - Dolphins (KEY GAME) L? - Lions L? - Raiders L? - Chiefs (KEY GAME) L? - Jets L? - Chargers W? - Vikings L? - Bears L? - Patriots L? - Bills W? - Chiefs (Championship KEY GAME!) Seahawks schedule (Estimated 4 wins) L - 49ers L - Steelers W - cardinals L - Falcons L? - Giants W? - Browns W? - Bengals L? - Cowboys L? - Ravens W? - Rams L? - Redskins L? - Eagles L? - Rams L? - Bears L? - 49ers
Posts: 17,387

10-04-2011, 01:26 PM	#3
jd1020 In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2010 Casino cash: $7702645	Too many estimated 3 win teams on that list for the Chiefs to have any hope of getting Luck. Time to move on. If the Chiefs are going to grab a 1st round QB its going to be Barkley/Jones or none at all. They are top 5 bad, not the worst.
Posts: 24,336

10-04-2011, 01:31 PM	#4
tboss27 Starter Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $10015003	You think the Dolphins will beat the Giants? There's no way to predict this right now, still way too many games and the NFL has surprise wins every week. Based on MIA schedule though they look to me like they have the highest probability of getting Luck.
Posts: 734

10-04-2011, 01:32 PM	#5
Bane C.H.I.E.F.S Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: **** your face Casino cash: $10005055	Suck for Lion Heart /Mecca
Posts: 12,621

10-04-2011, 01:32 PM	#6
wutamess MVP Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Lee's Summit Casino cash: $5261637	Vikings need a qb.
Posts: 8,282

10-04-2011, 01:25 PM	#2
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3496009	Great another Luck thread who the chiefs wont be getting.
Posts: 23,755

10-04-2011, 01:43 PM	#8
Three7s MVP Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $10084719	Oh shit, looking at the Dolphins schedule, it looks like their best chance at a victory is against the Chiefs. If they lose that one, 0-16 looks like reality.
Posts: 6,739

10-04-2011, 02:09 PM	#14
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2835047	There is no guarantee that a team like the Rams or Panthers would trade out of the #1 pick if they do get it. Say the Rams get the #1 pick. They could take the best available trade down offer....but then they have no guarantee of getting a dynamic playmaker. I could see them staying put and taking a WR that high. Stranger things have happened...
Posts: 92,296