Football The role of luck in sports

**DaFace** · 01-05-2014, 03:41 PM

When you really think about it, an enormous amount of an NFL team's success comes from luck. Yes, solid drafting, FA moves, coaching, etc. all push you in the right direction, but there's clearly not a lot of true skill involved in things like plucking Tom Brady out of the 6th round of the draft or having the #1 pick on the year that Andrew Luck is available.

It's the same thing both within a season (having an easy vs. hard schedule) and even during a given game (injuries galore yesterday).

If I were to arbitrarily pull a number out of my ass, I'd say that only around 60% of a team's success in the NFL is under the control of the team's management and 40% just has to fall in place. (You can debate the exact proportions, but the point still stands.)

So...

Does luck make the game more fun? Or does it just suck? On the one hand, it makes games we end up winning because of good fortune a lot of fun, but man...it's tough to invest so much time over a season to a game that comes down to nothing but a weighted coin flip in the end.

**Rain Man** · 01-05-2014, 03:56 PM

The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.

Sannyasi · 01-05-2014, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.

Over the course of a season talent wins out enough times that the good teams usually have a good record and vice versa. However in any individual game luck plays an absolutely critical factor.

The playoffs in particular are a real crapshoot. The closer the teams become in terms of talent the more the outcome is determined by chance. We see this every year.

EDIT: And I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. Its fun to have varied outcomes. That's the excitement of a single elimination playoff system. It would be boring to crown the best team using statistics such as DVOA or something like that. But the role played by variance in a single 60 minute contest has to be acknowledged.

**007** · 01-05-2014, 03:57 PM

all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck.

Deberg_1990 · 01-05-2014, 03:59 PM

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

**DaFace** · 01-05-2014, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

Deberg_1990 · 01-05-2014, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

Understandable. There are a ton of NBA teams tanking this year.

I truly think Indy tanked in 2011 as well, although we will never know. Smart move if they did.

ChiefsCountry · 01-05-2014, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.

**Rain Man** · 01-05-2014, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.

I think football has become that.

Would you trade the entire Chiefs' roster for a young Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? I might.

kcxiv · 01-05-2014, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.

Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.

Hoopsdoc · 01-05-2014, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fruit Ninja

The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.

Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.

This is just wrong. They signed Kerry Collins of the street and he got hurt. Painter was a bitter Bill draft pick who'd been with the team for 2 years. After Collins got hurt, Polians ego was the reason they stuck with PaINTer.

Ultimately, that ego is what got him fired.

There was no "tanking" that season. Painter was just that abysmally bad and Polians Montana sized ego kept him from making a change until it was too late. Remember, that team actually finished 2-1 with Dan Orlovsky.

KChiefs1 · 01-05-2014, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru

all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck.

Suck for Luck.

BigCatDaddy · 01-05-2014, 03:58 PM

I'd say he played a huge role yesterday.

scho63 · 01-05-2014, 04:12 PM

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

Nuff said

GloucesterChief · 01-05-2014, 04:25 PM

The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.

01-05-2014, 03:41 PM	Topic Starter
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1756899	The role of luck in sports When you really think about it, an enormous amount of an NFL team's success comes from luck. Yes, solid drafting, FA moves, coaching, etc. all push you in the right direction, but there's clearly not a lot of true skill involved in things like plucking Tom Brady out of the 6th round of the draft or having the #1 pick on the year that Andrew Luck is available. It's the same thing both within a season (having an easy vs. hard schedule) and even during a given game (injuries galore yesterday). If I were to arbitrarily pull a number out of my ass, I'd say that only around 60% of a team's success in the NFL is under the control of the team's management and 40% just has to fall in place. (You can debate the exact proportions, but the point still stands.) So... Does luck make the game more fun? Or does it just suck? On the one hand, it makes games we end up winning because of good fortune a lot of fun, but man...it's tough to invest so much time over a season to a game that comes down to nothing but a weighted coin flip in the end.
Posts: 51,964

01-05-2014, 03:56 PM	#2
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3048491 VARSITY	The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck. Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season. The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing. So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being: Talent - 60% Luck as it relates to injuries - 25% Luck as it relates to play execution - 15% I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,663

01-05-2014, 03:57 PM	#4
007 Shaken. Not stirred. Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: London Casino cash: $13950126 VARSITY	all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck. __________________ My dear girl, there are some things that just aren’t done. Such as, drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.
Posts: 65,557

01-05-2014, 03:59 PM	#5
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $3744454	Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players. __________________ Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914

01-05-2014, 03:58 PM	#13
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $1749122	I'd say he played a huge role yesterday.
Posts: 25,904

01-05-2014, 04:12 PM	#14
scho63 Politically Incorrect Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Casino cash: $2501110	"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" Nuff said __________________ *"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!"* ~Redd Foxx~ ~~2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023~~ 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach "The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"
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01-05-2014, 04:25 PM	#15
GloucesterChief MVP Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $1506454	The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.
Posts: 12,714