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Old 11-01-2014, 07:04 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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2014 Playoff prediction thread
It looks like we will be in the thick of the playoff race for the rest of the season. So I'll keep an updated prognosis of our chances in this thread. These are made with my software, available here: http://nfl-forecast.com


After week 8:
Chances of winning the division: 10%
Chances of making the playoffs: 52%
Median number of projected wins: 9

After week 9:
Chances of winning the division: 19%
Chances of making the playoffs: 57%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 10:
Chances of winning the division: 17%
Chances of making the playoffs: 71%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 11:
Chances of winning the division: 36%
Chances of making the playoffs: 82%
Median number of projected wins: 11
Last edited by cdcox; 11-19-2014 at 07:36 PM..
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:06 PM   #2
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We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:09 PM   #3
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Here is the graph showing expected wins and the playoff odds for each number of wins.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:12 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Easy 6 View Post
We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
Roughly a 25% chance
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:16 PM   #5
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:16 PM   #6
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:23 PM   #7
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Just beating the Jets and then the Raiders twice gets us to 7 wins.

If we go 3-3 the rest of the games, that makes 10 wins.

I think 9 is probably a realistic expectation, but 10 or even 11 is possible if we catch some breaks against good teams.

It's encouraging to see the software say we have a better than average chance to make the playoffs after starting off against such a tough start to the year.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:26 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Median number of projected wins: 9
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:28 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Just beating the Jets and then the Raiders twice gets us to 7 wins.

If we go 3-3 the rest of the games, that makes 10 wins.

I think 9 is probably a realistic expectation, but 10 or even 11 is possible if we catch some breaks against good teams.

It's encouraging to see the software say we have a better than average chance to make the playoffs after starting off against such a tough start to the year.
Good post. We have a mostly favorable schedule left in there too. Chargers and Seahawks at home. We'll win 9 or 10.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:30 PM   #10
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This is awesome.

Cdcox, would you mind explaining to me (as if I were an idiot) (((which I am))) how your model differs from Nate Silver's?

Silver has us at 44%. You have us about 8 points higher. Wondering why.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:33 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is awesome.

Cdcox, would you mind explaining to me (as if I were an idiot) (((which I am))) how your model differs from Nate Silver's?

Silver has us at 44%. You have us about 8 points higher. Wondering why.
I didn't even realize Nate Silver did NFL playoff forecasts, although it isn't surprising given his return to sports. Let me read through his stuff.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:33 PM   #12
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We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
Gonna be tough.

You gotta figure the Broncos, Patriots, and Colts will be division winners. I'm guessing the Pats torch the rest of their schedule, meaning that AGAIN, the wild card games will be (a.) in Indy, and (b.) whoever wins that mess of the AFCN.

Who's the best matchup for the Chiefs among IND/PIT/BAL/CIN? (I don't believe in Cleveland.)

I think the best matchup is Baltimore or Cincinnati, but we can probably take any of those teams to the wire.

I'd love another shot at Luck this year.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:41 PM   #13
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Colts will get the 2 seed IMO. After their game vs NE their only tough game left is at Dallas.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:42 PM   #14
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I'd love another shot at Luck this year.
This, THIS, AND THIS.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:44 PM   #15
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This, THIS, AND THIS.
Our defense is better, our passrush is healthier, and we should have Charles and Houston 100% for that game.

Bring it the **** on. I want Luck.
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