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10-04-2013, 01:13 PM | Topic Starter |
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Infographics: Every NFL Offense's Production, Visualized By Position
Instinctively, you know every team has strengths and weaknesses. You see it in the box scores and the advanced metrics, but when the teams line up, a shitty running back doesn't look impossibly different from Adrian Peterson. So, here's a visual aid. Every NFL offense, visualized by how each of the main offensive positions are playing.
Each circle in these charts represents how productive that position has been for a given team. We added up every qualifying player's DYAR at a given position—so you're not just looking at single players, but whole units. (LeSean McCoy is the single best running back, for example, but the Denver backs are a better unit.) Bigger circles mean more production. Red circles mean below replacement level play. So, a big red circle means that that position really sucks. If you're unfamiliar, DYAR stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It's a Football Outsiders metric that compiles the total value a player generates over the course of a year, instead of the slightly better known DVOA. Broadly, we're using DYAR because we wanted to show how much production each team has gotten from each of its positions, not how well each player has played in whatever snaps he was on the field for. (DVOA is a rate stat, like the NBA's PER, meaning a highly productive five plays would set you ahead of league leaders. We aren't so interested in that here.) The "defense-adjusted" in DYAR means that these numbers reflect the quality of opponents each offense played. The thing to note is that because we're only four weeks into the season, the opponent adjustment isn't really kicking in yet. It increases 10 percent every week, and is at full confidence by week 10. It's at 40 percent this week, which isn't the strongest, but is better than no adjustment. The minimum qualifying criteria were 10 passes for quarterbacks, five targets for receivers, and six carries for running backs. DYAR was also useful here because we could combine rushing DYAR and passing DYAR for quarterbacks, rushing DYAR and receiving DYAR for running backs, etc. For the offensive line, we used adjusted line yards, which is a rushing metric, instead of pass protection. We did this because many of the passing stats, at least this early, seemed more predicated on a quarterback's ability to avoid sacks than we'd like, but we're open to suggestions. We didn't do defense this time around, because, frankly, we didn't have the most compelling data to work with. We're going to see about getting something together for that. Average Squad Here's the NFL average for accumulated DYAR of a team's receivers, tight ends, running backs, and quarterbacks through Week 4, and the average adjusted yards gained by the offensive line: Every team rated: http://regressing.deadspin.com/every...ion-1440409319 |
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10-04-2013, 01:16 PM | #2 |
Hello
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10-04-2013, 01:17 PM | #3 |
Psycho Bag Of Squanch
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I don't care to decipher this and will wait for CdCox to explain it...
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10-04-2013, 01:25 PM | #4 |
Immanentize The Eschaton
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It's a complicated way of measuring the effectiveness of position groupings by team. They try to account for as many factors as possible but it is currently limited by small sample size.
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10-04-2013, 01:27 PM | #5 |
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Thanks. The Z crit is everything, need bigger sample...
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10-04-2013, 01:18 PM | #6 |
Immanentize The Eschaton
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Oh, and this article may play out differently than you think. The Broncos are listed at #1. When compiling the best possible squad, it is composed almost entirely of Broncos with the exception of the TE group. Statistically they've had an impressive first four games of the season. It might surprise you to see the Chiefs listed at #11 though.
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10-04-2013, 01:19 PM | #7 |
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10-04-2013, 01:22 PM | #8 |
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10-04-2013, 01:24 PM | #9 |
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Naggers!
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10-04-2013, 01:26 PM | #10 |
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10-04-2013, 01:19 PM | #11 |
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I hate charts and graphs. When's the quiz?
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10-04-2013, 01:25 PM | #12 |
Would an idiot do that?
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So, the Chiefs have a top 10 O-Line?
Holy shit...
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10-04-2013, 01:27 PM | #13 |
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KC is ranked #11 by groupings overall. Not bad at all with that stout Defense.
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10-04-2013, 01:28 PM | #14 |
Would an idiot do that?
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It would be interesting to see this for previous seasons, if for no other reason than to see if it supports the widely held opinion that offensive linemen win championships.
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10-04-2013, 01:31 PM | #15 | |
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Quote:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb |
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