Chiefs Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite?

**Rain Man** · 11-13-2013, 12:54 PM

Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it.

I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites

The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com.

It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places.

One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line.

Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering.

But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 12:56 PM

I really pay no attention to point spreads.

KC_Connection · 11-13-2013, 12:58 PM

Maybe it's a little high, but Denver has been the better team to this point (looking past strictly the records) and they have home advantage. It make sense.

Mama Hip Rockets · 11-13-2013, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Denver has been the better team to this point (looking past strictly the records)

Except for, ya know, records are the only things that matter. Therefore, the Chiefs have been the better team.

KC_Connection · 11-13-2013, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman

Except for, ya know, records are the only things that matter. Therefore, the Chiefs have been the better team.

Except objectively judging whether a team is better than another is quite a bit more complex than looking at a team's overall record. Hence the reason Alabama is perceived to be better than Boise State every year in college football despite similar records.

Mama Hip Rockets · 11-13-2013, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Except objectively judging whether a team is better than another is quite a bit more complex than looking at a team's overall record. Hence the reason Alabama is perceived to be better than Boise State every year in college football despite similar records.

They've basically played the same schedule and the Chiefs have a better record. How is Denver better, again?

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman

They've basically played the same schedule and the Chiefs have a better record. How is Denver better, again?

They're not and it's a crime that they are favored... why would an 8-1 team be favored at home like they are this week? I just don't know.

Pasta Little Brioni · 11-13-2013, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Maybe it's a little high, but Denver has been the better team to this point (looking past strictly the records) and they have home advantage. It make sense.

"Team"...**** no. QB and illegal pick plays....yes

KC native · 11-13-2013, 12:59 PM

homer vote

Sannyasi · 11-13-2013, 01:01 PM

Denver has a much better team than the Chiefs do.

bowener · 11-13-2013, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sannyasi

Denver has a much better ~~team~~ QB than the Chiefs do.

FTFY

beach tribe · 11-14-2013, 02:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sannyasi

Denver has a much better QB than the Chiefs do.

Fixed

keg in kc · 11-13-2013, 01:05 PM

I'll be surprised if it's that close if Manning plays the whole game.

**DaneMcCloud** · 11-13-2013, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I'll be surprised if it's that close if Manning plays the whole game.

You and I are watching different teams this year

ciaomichael · 11-13-2013, 01:06 PM

It's reasonable. Maybe 3 for the home field and 7 for perceived superiority minus 1.5 for any lingering doubts about Manning's health.

View Poll Results: Before reading this, what point spread would you have guessed?
Virtuous Chiefs by 7+	8	5.88%
Virtuous Chiefs by 5 to 6.5	2	1.47%
Virtuous Chiefs by 3 to 4.5	13	9.56%
Virtuous Chiefs by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Push	4	2.94%
Cheating Broncos by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Cheating Broncos by 3 to 4.5	26	19.12%
Cheating Broncos by 5 to 6.5	29	21.32%
Cheating Broncos by 7+	49	36.03%
I don't deal with math and probabilities. I hire people for that.	3	2.21%
Voters: 136. You may not vote on this poll

11-13-2013, 12:54 PM	Topic Starter
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $2938491 VARSITY	Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite? Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it. I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com. It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places. One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line. Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering. But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.
Posts: 141,719

11-13-2013, 12:56 PM	#2
Mile High Mania #triggering Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Tejas Casino cash: $3397229	I really pay no attention to point spreads. __________________
Posts: 30,349

11-13-2013, 12:58 PM	#3
KC_Connection Perpetual Mediocrity Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $5002783	Maybe it's a little high, but Denver has been the better team to this point (looking past strictly the records) and they have home advantage. It make sense.
Posts: 49,309

11-13-2013, 12:59 PM	#9
KC native Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Fort Worth, TX Casino cash: $10049239	homer vote
Posts: 24,946

11-13-2013, 01:01 PM	#10
Sannyasi Veteran Join Date: Jan 2010 Casino cash: $9963714	Denver has a much better team than the Chiefs do.
Posts: 2,615

11-13-2013, 01:05 PM	#13
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	I'll be surprised if it's that close if Manning plays the whole game.
Posts: 58,682

11-13-2013, 01:06 PM	#15
ciaomichael Starter Join Date: Nov 2013 Casino cash: $10004900	It's reasonable. Maybe 3 for the home field and 7 for perceived superiority minus 1.5 for any lingering doubts about Manning's health.
Posts: 120