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Old 11-01-2014, 07:04 PM   Topic Starter
cdcox cdcox is offline
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2014 Playoff prediction thread
It looks like we will be in the thick of the playoff race for the rest of the season. So I'll keep an updated prognosis of our chances in this thread. These are made with my software, available here: http://nfl-forecast.com


After week 8:
Chances of winning the division: 10%
Chances of making the playoffs: 52%
Median number of projected wins: 9

After week 9:
Chances of winning the division: 19%
Chances of making the playoffs: 57%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 10:
Chances of winning the division: 17%
Chances of making the playoffs: 71%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 11:
Chances of winning the division: 36%
Chances of making the playoffs: 82%
Median number of projected wins: 11
Last edited by cdcox; 11-19-2014 at 07:36 PM..
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:06 PM   #2
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We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:12 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Easy 6 View Post
We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
Roughly a 25% chance
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:16 PM   #4
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:51 PM   #5
Ming the Merciless Ming the Merciless is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Roughly a 25% chance

Wrong


That would assume about equal odds to win the game

We will probably be underdogs, quite likely 2:1

52% to make the playoffs, presuming wildcard birth

2:1 against in 1st game

Would be closer to 15% than 25

Likely it is somewhere closer to 15 % than 25.

I'm guessing less even.
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Old 11-01-2014, 10:04 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
Wrong


That would assume about equal odds to win the game

We will probably be underdogs, quite likely 2:1

52% to make the playoffs, presuming wildcard birth

2:1 against in 1st game

Would be closer to 15% than 25

Likely it is somewhere closer to 15 % than 25.

I'm guessing less even.
According to advancednflanalytics.com we are the 6th rated team in the NFL, so your estimate of the Chiefs being 2:1 dogs in the playoffs is not data driven, but rather based on your own personal biases.
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Old 11-01-2014, 10:28 PM   #7
Ming the Merciless Ming the Merciless is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
According to advancednflanalytics.com we are the 6th rated team in the NFL, so your estimate of the Chiefs being 2:1 dogs in the playoffs is not data driven, but rather based on your own personal biases.
Look...you ignore simple fact:

Even if I take as true your statement that the chiefs have a 52% chance to make the playoffs, they would NEED to be EVEN odds in the 1st playoff game to have a 25% shot to get a single playoff win.

Tell me how this is possible when 1) we will probably be playing AWAY

2) we will be a wildcard team playing a division winner


Your 25% number is flat out wrong.

Probably so is your 52% number but I am not sure....and it doesn't matter.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:33 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Easy 6 View Post
We will break through for that long awaited playoff win this year.
Gonna be tough.

You gotta figure the Broncos, Patriots, and Colts will be division winners. I'm guessing the Pats torch the rest of their schedule, meaning that AGAIN, the wild card games will be (a.) in Indy, and (b.) whoever wins that mess of the AFCN.

Who's the best matchup for the Chiefs among IND/PIT/BAL/CIN? (I don't believe in Cleveland.)

I think the best matchup is Baltimore or Cincinnati, but we can probably take any of those teams to the wire.

I'd love another shot at Luck this year.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:42 PM   #9
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I'd love another shot at Luck this year.
This, THIS, AND THIS.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:44 PM   #10
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This, THIS, AND THIS.
Our defense is better, our passrush is healthier, and we should have Charles and Houston 100% for that game.

Bring it the **** on. I want Luck.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:48 PM   #11
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Our defense is better, our passrush is healthier, and we should have Charles and Houston 100% for that game.

Bring it the **** on. I want Luck.
He wouldnt be launching it all over the field like last time, thats for damn sure.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:09 PM   #12
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Here is the graph showing expected wins and the playoff odds for each number of wins.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:16 PM   #13
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:55 PM   #14
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I feel it...Sporting KC, The Royals, The Chiefs...it just feels right.
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Old 11-01-2014, 07:23 PM   #15
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Just beating the Jets and then the Raiders twice gets us to 7 wins.

If we go 3-3 the rest of the games, that makes 10 wins.

I think 9 is probably a realistic expectation, but 10 or even 11 is possible if we catch some breaks against good teams.

It's encouraging to see the software say we have a better than average chance to make the playoffs after starting off against such a tough start to the year.
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