Mock (3/14)

[Direckshun]

I'm going to run with the rumors we've been hearing, and plug them into this mock, to see how it effects our draft.

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, NT Jerrell Powe (no 6th round tender), ILB Akeem Jordan, S Kendrick Lewis, S Quentin Demps

3. The Chiefs sign WR Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers) to a 3 year, $15m deal ($5m guaranteed), OT Donald Penn (Buccaneers) to a 3 year, $20m deal ($8m guaranteed), DE Vance Walker (Raiders) to a 3 year, $12m deal ($2m guaranteed).

On with the show:



1.23. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State

With Penn/Fisher/Stephenson all on board at tackle, it is very unlikely the Chiefs look for a swing tackle here as I postulated many moons ago when I mocked Cyrus Kouandjio. It's also very unlikely the Chiefs will draft DL here as well, now that Vance Walker has signed and they still have Bailey and Catapano as quality depth. It's become apparent that Dorsey doesn't value pure receiving TEs like Ebron and Amaro as much as he does blocker-first, receiver-second TEs like Fasano, Kelce, and apparently Pettigrew. So while that does mean that Dorsey is interested in guys like Seferian-Jenkins, Niklas, and Fiedorowicz, it is not exactly good value in the 1st unless it's a slam dunk -- which only Seferian-Jenkins comes close to approaching.

The big mystery is WR. Is a depth chart of Bowe, Sanders, and Avery enough, with Jenkins and Hemingway as quality depth? Or is that a depth chart that still needs an infusion of 1st round talent? Keep in mind that (a.) cutting Avery isn't a viable option cap-wise until 2015, and (b.) this is a silly-stupid deep year at WR. My guess is that both of these factors mean the Chiefs save WR for later -- unless somebody ridiculously awesome like Beckham falls (which he might!).

So that leaves four positions: guard (sorry, folks), rushbacker (anticipating cutting Hali in 2015), corner (ditto with Flowers and possibly Smith), and safety. I can see the Chiefs going with any of these positions in the first round.

That limits my options, in this hypothetical, to:

OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
DE/OLB Kony Ealy, Missouri
DE/OLB Dee Ford, Auburn
CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
CB Jason Verrett, TCU
CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
S Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois

I think the best talents on board here are Ealy, Ford, Dennard, and Verrett. I'd love to go OLB here, but Ealy (DE) and Ford (OLB) are better fits in a 4-3 system. Verrett would look beautiful in the slot, but you can get slot CBs in any draft. What this team will need with its impending departure of possibly both of its 2014 starting CBs next year is an elite guy on the outside. Dennard looks every bit the part. We could be sporting a brand new starting lineup at CB in 2015 with both he and Marcus Cooper.

3.87. NT Zach Kerr, Delaware

The Chiefs let Jerrell Powe hit free agency, and don't have a speck of depth behind Dontari Poe. The Chiefs are looking to get stouter and tougher in the middle of the line. So the question becomes: of those on the board, who is a great NT prospect?

There are two available here: Daniel McCullers, the 350 lbs ridiculous 36" arm mammoth, or Zach Kerr, a 326 lbs stupid-quick nose tackle who can make plays beyond the phone booth. Knowing Dorsey, he's going to go with the athlete with higher upside, and that's Kerr.

I think in an average year, Kerr would be surprising people as a first round sleeper. But because of the great depth this year, and teams falling all over themselves to bring in the plentiful WRs and trying to hit on safeties, Kerr is available here. I take him to boost my DL.

4.119. OT/G Billy Turner, North Dakota State

With Penn at LT for the next couple seasons, it's possible the Chiefs try Stephenson at RG and Fisher at RT. But with a Von Miller/Demarcus Ware combo now in the AFC West, I think they're going to let Stephenson and Fisher have it out for starting RT duties, and let the other provide depth as a swing tackle. That means the Chiefs have a start-on-day-one opportunity at RG, now that Asamoah is a Falcon and Schwartz a Giant.

There are some really good options here: Furman's Dakota Dozier, who I love; LSU's Trai Turner, a great athlete and powerful blocker; and NDSU's Billy Turner. While I would probably go with Dozier or Trai Turner, the 6'5", 316 lbs Billy Turner can (and eventually will) play tackle, which makes him more attractive to Dorsey. Turner and Turner can ostensibly start on the first day of work, and Dozier probably can too.

5.151. WR Jalen Saunders, Oklahoma

Week 7 rolls around. Charles hits the hole hard, and Cam Thomas falls on top of him, breaking his ankle. As of now, the Chiefs are robbed of their primary home run threat.

The answer is to make sure this offense has another. I'm not claiming Jalen Saunders is Jamaal Charles, since they play different positions. But the Chiefs do need to be able to recreate the homerun threat Charles provides them, and Saunders' slight but explosive play can create all sorts of opportunities when he's in space. It doesn't say much about Pioli that you can recreate the McCluster magic with a 5th round pick, but that's why he doesn't have a job anymore here.

6.177. FS Dez Southward, Wisconsin

The question becomes: who in the NFL will gamble on Dez Southward. Possessor of a 6'1", 211 lbs frame, and 4.3 speed? A guy who will need a couple years redshirting but has unreal upside?

6.183. ILB Avery Williamson, Kentucky

On my write-up about Williamson in the mid-rounds:

This draft has a few ILBs who are far better in space than they are mixing it up at the line of scrimmage, and Avery Williamson is one of those players. What sets Williamson apart from most of them is that he's sporting an NFL-caliber physique (6'1", 248) while still retaining tons of speed (high 4.5s in the 40), and extreme productivity in the SEC. Williamson is not a punishing hitter, but he can make big hits on occasion, and he does make a lot of 5-yard tackles that would have been 15-yarders if he had not held his position. And he looks like he could be outstanding in coverage -- he seems to be pretty good now with upside. And he has a frame that could add extra muscle if he elected to. Williamson put up 135 tackles this past year, and any tape on him suggests he's always around the ball. I think he's a solid midrounder for a team looking for LB depth this year; he could go as high as the 4th if a team thinks he looks like an eventual starter, as he does to me.