Simmons: Touchback rule could increase kick returns

[oaklandhater]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...urns/82203034/

Paul Dehner Jr., pdehnerjr@enquirer.com 12:31 p.m. EDT March 24, 2016
112215 BENGALS-CARDINALS
(Photo: The Enquirer/Kareem Elgazzar)
Upon hearing the NFL passed a new rule moving touchbacks from the 20-yard-line to the 25 for next season, Bengals special teams coordinator Darrin Simmons couldn’t deny ideas started swirling around his head.

Boasting a kick coverage team that ranked among the best in the NFL in tackles inside the 20 last season, he sees the rule change designed to increase touchbacks in the game could flip the other way.

“My own opinion is I think teams are going to be more likely to try to hang the ball up in the air and not just take the automatic touchback all the time,” Simmons said. “I think it’s going to be reverse, I think it’s going to be more returns.”

Last year, in drives following kickoffs the average drive start of Bengals’ opponents was the 20-yard line. Only the Buffalo Bills (19) held a better average. No team in the league saw a drive start beyond the 25-yard line, where touchbacks would be placed next year.

Simmons’ line of thought wonders, why concede a differential of five yards?

“It’s the level of comfort you have with your kickoff team,” he said. “If you feel like they can cover why would you not want to put them inside the 20?”

Mike Nugent and the Bengals ranked 25th in the NFL in touchback percentage last year with kickoffs brought out of the end zone 48 percent of the time. Meanwhile, kickers with strong legs like Baltimore’s Justin Tucker and Indianapolis’ Pat McAfee will likely keep their same strategy of kicking it deep and completely take the return out of the game for their opponent. Both forced touchbacks more than 85 percent of last season.

For the Bengals, it could mean a weapon like Adam Jones rendered useless on kickoff returns. He was essentially given the green light to bring out any kick that didn't sail out of bounds. Now, Simmons says the team will probably have to move up the line of demarcation.

Most teams taking that approach enhances the reason to go for the touchback for McAfee. He tweeted this after hearing the ruling: “Only a 1% better chance of scoring from 25 than from 20. From a strategy point. Imma bat a 1000 on touchbacks this year.”

Those numbers will be under a microscope as teams decide their strategy moving forward.

Since 2012, drives that start at the 25 result in a 33.2 percent chance of a score. Over the same span, drives that start at the 20 have a 29.5 percent chance of resulting in a score. There’s a nearly three-percent uptick in touchdowns alone.

Those numbers also reveal a 3.5-percent difference in punts between the two starting points.

“You’ll have to go with what your kicker does best,” Simmons said. “Teams like Baltimore or Indianapolis that have such a high touchback rate, especially somebody like Indianapolis, they might never have a ball returned on them, especially in Indy.”

When the kickoff moved from the 30 to 35 in 2011, many kickers adopted a more aggressive, low trajectory aimed specifically at kicking out of the end zone. Simmons sees this change bringing back an older style of high hangtime kicks that land around the goal line in order to force a decision for the returner. The practice of landing in a precise spot doesn’t come easy, but with an offseason of specific practice expect to see more of it.

“Still think it’s pretty hard to do, it requires so much touch,” Simmons said. “These kickers go after the ball and attack it so hard. It’s really changed. They will probably revert back to something close to what it was before where those directional kickers can get good hang time, maybe that’s the kick you go with. I think it’s a wait-and-see thing but I certainly think it’s going to be interesting to see what people do.”