The First Round QB

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:

• Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
  1 Peyton Manning 38.0
  3 Matt Ryan 20.2
  1 Cam Newton 20.0
  24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
  11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
  1 Eli Manning 17.2
  4 Philip Rivers 17.2
  1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
  2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
  1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
  1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
  1 Andrew Luck 15.4
  1 Carson Palmer 15.1
  1 Jameis Winston 13.5
  5 Kerry Collins 13.0
  3 Steve McNair 13.0
  18 Joe Flacco 13.0
  1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
  11 Jay Cutler 11.8
  1 Alex Smith 11.7
  3 Jim Everett 11.0
  26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
  1 Michael Vick 11.0
  8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
  1 Jeff George 9.0
  2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
  3 Blake Bortles 9.0
  1 Sam Bradford 8.6
  11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
  13 Chris Miller 8.0
  5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
  2 Carson Wentz 7.0
  6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
  2 Robert Griffin 6.6
  3 Vince Young 6.0
  3 Joey Harrington 6.0
  18 Chad Pennington 6.0
  10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
  25 Jason Campbell 5.0
  1 David Carr 5.0
  2 Rick Mirer 5.0
  1 Tim Couch 4.0
  17 Josh Freeman 4.0
  19 Kyle Boller 4.0
  32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
  12 Christian Ponder 3.0
  7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
  16 EJ Manuel 2.8
  1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
  3 Heath Shuler 2.0
  22 Brady Quinn 2.0
  22 J.P. Losman 2.0
  22 Rex Grossman 2.0
  25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
  25 Tim Tebow 1.0
  22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
  8 Jake Locker 1.0
  3 Akili Smith 1.0
  6 David Klingler 1.0
  12 Chuck Long 1.0
  10 Matt Leinart 1.0
  32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
  1 Jared Goff 0.0
  26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
  22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
  12 Cade McNown 0.0
  2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
  26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
  16 Dan McGwire 0.0
  24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
  7 Andre Ware 0.0
  6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0

35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

You need to get out more.