Ryan Sims biggest bust of 2002 draft

FringeNC · 04-24-2005, 07:37 AM

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/sto...date=4/20/2005

Grab bag 2005

By MARK McGUIRE, Staff writer
First published: Wednesday, April 20, 2005

The 2005 NFL draft has been called hit-or-miss, one filled with uncertainty -- starting with the very first pick. But that's what it always is, even if it doesn't seem that way on draft day.

The San Francisco 49ers, who own the No. 1 overall selection, may want to read this. Or not. Or just trade down.

If San Francisco stays in the top spot in this year's draft, the Niners would likely take either California QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah quarterback Alex Smith, with Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as an outside possibility.

Whomever San Francisco selects, the franchise will have only a one-in-five chance of picking the man who will go on to be the best player coming out in 2005, according to an analysis of the last two decades of NFL drafts.

That's the same 20 percent chance the Niners have of picking the biggest bust in the draft, according to recent history. (Anybody remember Aundray Bruce? Steve Emtman?)

Don't laugh, Miami Dolphin fans: Your not sitting any prettier at No. 2. The same dangerous odds apply to the second position in the first round, which in 1998 produced arguably the biggest bust of all time: San Diego Charger quarterback "Cryin' " Ryan Leaf.

Let's be clear: That doesn't mean in past drafts a team was wrong to select a given player, even if he didn't pan out. For example, based on pre-draft analysis Leaf was not a bad pick. He just turned out to be a bad pro.

And no expert projected 2000 sixth-rounder Tom Brady to lead his team to three Super Bowl titles in his first five seasons.

An admittedly subjective review of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks reveals only four proved to be worthy of the top selections. To be fair, that includes a pair of drafts headed by future Hall of Famers (Bruce Smith, 1985, and Troy Aikman, 1989) who were bettered only by other sure-fire Canton inductees (Jerry Rice and Barry Sanders).

Still, the best player in a given draft is likely to come from one of the top three spots (45 percent) or certainly the first round (85 percent).

But if you are looking for the draft's biggest steals -- and to build multi-Super Bowl champions -- keep an eye on picks 190-199 (which this year falls in the middle of sixth round).

That's where the Denver Broncos got Shannon Sharpe (192nd, 1990) and Terrell Davis (196th, 1995). Meanwhile, the New England Patriots drafted two of their most important offensive cogs in that area: Troy Brown (198th, 1993) and -- in the biggest draft steal of the past two decades -- Brady (199th, 2000).

Of course, talking busts and steals (best value considering where a player was selected) and shoulda-been No. 1s involves opinion. So here's where the above numbers are coming from, a statistical yet subjective look at the last 20 years of the NFL draft. Keep in mind the determinations of the past four drafts can change as players from those years continue to blossom or bottom out:

2004*

1st Overall: Eli Manning (San Diego Chargers; traded to New York Giants). Should Have Been: Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (Pittsburgh Steelers). Biggest Bust: Rashaun Woods, 31st (San Francisco 49ers). Biggest Steal: Erik Coleman, 143rd, 5th round (New York Jets).

2003*

1st Overall: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals). Should Have Been: Byron Leftwich, 7th (Jacksonville Jaguars). Biggest Bust: Johnathan Sullivan, 6th (New Orleans Saints). Biggest Steal: Willis McGahee, 23rd, (Buffalo Bills).

2002*

1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots).

2001*

1st Overall: Michael Vick, (Atlanta Falcons). Should Have Been: Vick. Biggest Bust: David Terrell, 8th (Chicago Bears). Biggest Steal: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 204th, 7th round (Bengals).

2000*

1st Overall: Courtney Brown (Cleveland Browns). Should Have Been: Tom Brady, 199th, 6th round (Patriots). Biggest Bust: Brown. Biggest Steal: Brady.

1999

1st Overall: Tim Couch (Browns). Should Have Been: Donovan McNabb, 2nd (Philadelphia Eagles). Biggest Bust: Akili Smith, 3rd (Bengals). Biggest Steal: Donald Driver, 213th, 7th round (Green Bay Packers).

1998

1st Overall: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Should Have Been: Manning. Biggest Bust: Ryan Leaf, 2nd (Chargers). Biggest Steal: Matt Hasselbeck, 187th, 6th round (Packers).

1997

1st Overall: Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams). Should Have Been: Pace. Biggest Bust: Darrell Russell, 2nd (Oakland Raiders). Biggest Steal: Tony Gonzalez, 13th (Chiefs).

1996

1st Overall: Keyshawn Johnson (Jets). Should Have Been: Ray Lewis, 26th (Baltimore Ravens). Biggest Bust: Lawrence Phillips, 6th (Rams). Biggest Steal: Lewis.

1995

1st Overall: Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals). Should Have Been: Steve McNair, 3rd, (Houston Oilers). Biggest Bust: Carter. Biggest Steal: Terrell Davis, 196th, 6th round (Denver Broncos).

1994

(Seven-round draft era begins) 1st Overall: Dan Wilkinson (Bengals). Should Have Been: Marshall Faulk, 2nd (Colts). Biggest Bust: Heath Shuler, 3rd (Washington Redskins). Biggest Steal: Tom Nalen, 218th, 7th round (Broncos).

1993

(Eight rounds) 1st Overall: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots). Should Have Been: Bledsoe. Biggest Bust: Eric Curry, 6th (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Biggest Steal: Troy Brown, 198th, 7th round (Patriots).

1992

(Last year with 12 rounds) 1st Overall: Steve Emtman (Colts). Should Have Been: Jimmy Smith, 36th, second round (Dallas Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Emtman. Biggest Steal: Mark Chmura, 157th, 6th round (Packers).

1991

1st Overall: Russell Maryland (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Brett Favre, 33rd, 2nd round (Falcons). Biggest Bust: Mike Croel, 4th (Broncos). Biggest Steal: Favre.

1990

1st Overall: Jeff George (Colts). Should Have Been: Emmitt Smith, 17th (Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Blair Thomas, 2nd (Jets). Biggest Steal: Shannon Sharpe, 192th, 7th round (Broncos).

1989

1st Overall: Troy Aikman (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Barry Sanders, 3rd (Detroit Lions). Biggest Bust: Tony Mandarich, 2nd (Packers). Biggest Steal: Mark Stepnoski, 57th, 3rd round (Cowboys).

1988

1st Overall: Aundray Bruce (Falcons). Should Have Been: Tim Brown, 6th (Los Angeles Raiders). Biggest Bust: Bruce. Biggest Steal: Bill Romanowski, 80th, 3rd round (49ers).

1987

1st Overall: Vinny Testaverde (Buccaneers). Should Have Been: Rod Woodson, 10th (Steelers). Biggest Bust: Brent Fullwood, 4th (Packers). Biggest Steal: Bo Jackson, 183rd, 7th round (Raiders).

1986

1st Overall: Tony Casillas (Falcons). Should Have Been: Leslie O'Neal, 8th (Chargers). Biggest Bust: Anthony Bell, 5th (St. Louis Cardinals). Biggest Steal: Mark Rypien, 146th, 6th round (Redskins).

1985

1st Overall: Bruce Smith (Bills). Should Have Been: Jerry Rice, 16th (49ers). Biggest Bust: George Adams, 19th (Giants) Biggest Steal: Rice.

(* Evaluation subject to change)

04-24-2005, 07:37 AM	Topic Starter
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $476014	Ryan Sims biggest bust of 2002 draft http://timesunion.com/AspStories/sto...date=4/20/2005 Grab bag 2005 By MARK McGUIRE, Staff writer First published: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 The 2005 NFL draft has been called hit-or-miss, one filled with uncertainty -- starting with the very first pick. But that's what it always is, even if it doesn't seem that way on draft day. The San Francisco 49ers, who own the No. 1 overall selection, may want to read this. Or not. Or just trade down. If San Francisco stays in the top spot in this year's draft, the Niners would likely take either California QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah quarterback Alex Smith, with Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as an outside possibility. Whomever San Francisco selects, the franchise will have only a one-in-five chance of picking the man who will go on to be the best player coming out in 2005, according to an analysis of the last two decades of NFL drafts. That's the same 20 percent chance the Niners have of picking the biggest bust in the draft, according to recent history. (Anybody remember Aundray Bruce? Steve Emtman?) Don't laugh, Miami Dolphin fans: Your not sitting any prettier at No. 2. The same dangerous odds apply to the second position in the first round, which in 1998 produced arguably the biggest bust of all time: San Diego Charger quarterback "Cryin' " Ryan Leaf. Let's be clear: That doesn't mean in past drafts a team was wrong to select a given player, even if he didn't pan out. For example, based on pre-draft analysis Leaf was not a bad pick. He just turned out to be a bad pro. And no expert projected 2000 sixth-rounder Tom Brady to lead his team to three Super Bowl titles in his first five seasons. An admittedly subjective review of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks reveals only four proved to be worthy of the top selections. To be fair, that includes a pair of drafts headed by future Hall of Famers (Bruce Smith, 1985, and Troy Aikman, 1989) who were bettered only by other sure-fire Canton inductees (Jerry Rice and Barry Sanders). Still, the best player in a given draft is likely to come from one of the top three spots (45 percent) or certainly the first round (85 percent). But if you are looking for the draft's biggest steals -- and to build multi-Super Bowl champions -- keep an eye on picks 190-199 (which this year falls in the middle of sixth round). That's where the Denver Broncos got Shannon Sharpe (192nd, 1990) and Terrell Davis (196th, 1995). Meanwhile, the New England Patriots drafted two of their most important offensive cogs in that area: Troy Brown (198th, 1993) and -- in the biggest draft steal of the past two decades -- Brady (199th, 2000). Of course, talking busts and steals (best value considering where a player was selected) and shoulda-been No. 1s involves opinion. So here's where the above numbers are coming from, a statistical yet subjective look at the last 20 years of the NFL draft. Keep in mind the determinations of the past four drafts can change as players from those years continue to blossom or bottom out: 2004* 1st Overall: Eli Manning (San Diego Chargers; traded to New York Giants). Should Have Been: Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (Pittsburgh Steelers). Biggest Bust: Rashaun Woods, 31st (San Francisco 49ers). Biggest Steal: Erik Coleman, 143rd, 5th round (New York Jets). 2003* 1st Overall: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals). Should Have Been: Byron Leftwich, 7th (Jacksonville Jaguars). Biggest Bust: Johnathan Sullivan, 6th (New Orleans Saints). Biggest Steal: Willis McGahee, 23rd, (Buffalo Bills). 2002* 1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots). 2001* 1st Overall: Michael Vick, (Atlanta Falcons). Should Have Been: Vick. Biggest Bust: David Terrell, 8th (Chicago Bears). Biggest Steal: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 204th, 7th round (Bengals). 2000* 1st Overall: Courtney Brown (Cleveland Browns). Should Have Been: Tom Brady, 199th, 6th round (Patriots). Biggest Bust: Brown. Biggest Steal: Brady. 1999 1st Overall: Tim Couch (Browns). Should Have Been: Donovan McNabb, 2nd (Philadelphia Eagles). Biggest Bust: Akili Smith, 3rd (Bengals). Biggest Steal: Donald Driver, 213th, 7th round (Green Bay Packers). 1998 1st Overall: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Should Have Been: Manning. Biggest Bust: Ryan Leaf, 2nd (Chargers). Biggest Steal: Matt Hasselbeck, 187th, 6th round (Packers). 1997 1st Overall: Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams). Should Have Been: Pace. Biggest Bust: Darrell Russell, 2nd (Oakland Raiders). Biggest Steal: Tony Gonzalez, 13th (Chiefs). 1996 1st Overall: Keyshawn Johnson (Jets). Should Have Been: Ray Lewis, 26th (Baltimore Ravens). Biggest Bust: Lawrence Phillips, 6th (Rams). Biggest Steal: Lewis. 1995 1st Overall: Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals). Should Have Been: Steve McNair, 3rd, (Houston Oilers). Biggest Bust: Carter. Biggest Steal: Terrell Davis, 196th, 6th round (Denver Broncos). 1994 (Seven-round draft era begins) 1st Overall: Dan Wilkinson (Bengals). Should Have Been: Marshall Faulk, 2nd (Colts). Biggest Bust: Heath Shuler, 3rd (Washington Redskins). Biggest Steal: Tom Nalen, 218th, 7th round (Broncos). 1993 (Eight rounds) 1st Overall: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots). Should Have Been: Bledsoe. Biggest Bust: Eric Curry, 6th (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Biggest Steal: Troy Brown, 198th, 7th round (Patriots). 1992 (Last year with 12 rounds) 1st Overall: Steve Emtman (Colts). Should Have Been: Jimmy Smith, 36th, second round (Dallas Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Emtman. Biggest Steal: Mark Chmura, 157th, 6th round (Packers). 1991 1st Overall: Russell Maryland (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Brett Favre, 33rd, 2nd round (Falcons). Biggest Bust: Mike Croel, 4th (Broncos). Biggest Steal: Favre. 1990 1st Overall: Jeff George (Colts). Should Have Been: Emmitt Smith, 17th (Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Blair Thomas, 2nd (Jets). Biggest Steal: Shannon Sharpe, 192th, 7th round (Broncos). 1989 1st Overall: Troy Aikman (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Barry Sanders, 3rd (Detroit Lions). Biggest Bust: Tony Mandarich, 2nd (Packers). Biggest Steal: Mark Stepnoski, 57th, 3rd round (Cowboys). 1988 1st Overall: Aundray Bruce (Falcons). Should Have Been: Tim Brown, 6th (Los Angeles Raiders). Biggest Bust: Bruce. Biggest Steal: Bill Romanowski, 80th, 3rd round (49ers). 1987 1st Overall: Vinny Testaverde (Buccaneers). Should Have Been: Rod Woodson, 10th (Steelers). Biggest Bust: Brent Fullwood, 4th (Packers). Biggest Steal: Bo Jackson, 183rd, 7th round (Raiders). 1986 1st Overall: Tony Casillas (Falcons). Should Have Been: Leslie O'Neal, 8th (Chargers). Biggest Bust: Anthony Bell, 5th (St. Louis Cardinals). Biggest Steal: Mark Rypien, 146th, 6th round (Redskins). 1985 1st Overall: Bruce Smith (Bills). Should Have Been: Jerry Rice, 16th (49ers). Biggest Bust: George Adams, 19th (Giants) Biggest Steal: Rice. (* Evaluation subject to change)
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