Herm And The Yards-Per-Play Phenomenon

FAX · 07-05-2007, 09:00 PM

My crack research team of rocket engineers, nuclear scientists, and painter monkeys ran across an interesting article tonight. Albeit dated, the article raises a point of interest to me considering our offense has recently taken a healthy dose of Hermicide.

Basically, the article cites Elias Sports Bureau statistics in respect to the passing game and two primary factors that dictate wins/losses:

First, the average pass (even counting incompletes) outgains the average run by 50-100%.

Second, the team that scores first wins most NFL games.

Keeping in mind that the article is somewhat dated (August 31, 2005), the statistics they use are pretty compelling in terms of winning percentage by lead in a game (previous five years).

Lead Pct. Games Won
3-0 59%
7-0 71%
10-0 82%
14-0 87%

The premise of the article is that, if you score first, you dramatically increase your odds of winning the game and passing teams (because the average yards per play is greater) have the best chance of scoring first. The following is quoted from the article ...

"Last year, again according to Elias Sports Bureau statistics, the average NFL offense gained 4.1 yards per run and 6.1 yards per pass (even factoring in incompletes) — roughly a 50% advantage for pass plays.

For good passing teams like New England and St. Louis, the average gain was about 7 yards per pass — a 75% advantage over an average running play. For a transcendent passing team, Peyton Manning's Colts, the average gain was 8.5 yards per pass — double the 4.3 yards averaged by Edgerrin James and other Indianapolis runners."

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-093...s-football-nfl

Anyway, I googled up one of John Clayton's articles (writing for ESPN in 2005) and his statistics seem to support this theory (at least in part). Basically, his stats show that, in 2004, the Colts averaged 6.7 yards per play followed by the Vikes, Packers, Chiefs, Eagles, Goats, Rams, Eggos, etc. And, 10 of the 13 teams who led the league in YPP made the playoffs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...710&type=story

My crack research group loves defense as much as the next homer, and certainly, the best of all worlds is a balanced, high quality performance on both sides of the ball that not only defeats the enemy but shames them into oblivion and sends them home to their mothers. But, one has to admit that there's no substitute for points on the board when you need them and YPP (and by extension) an effective passing offense appears to be a major factor in accomplishing that goal.

I'm interested in the Planet's take on this.

FAX

Disclaimers: Sorry if repost.

07-05-2007, 09:00 PM	Topic Starter
FAX testing ... 1, 2, 3 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Tennessee Casino cash: $6753759	Herm And The Yards-Per-Play Phenomenon My crack research team of rocket engineers, nuclear scientists, and painter monkeys ran across an interesting article tonight. Albeit dated, the article raises a point of interest to me considering our offense has recently taken a healthy dose of Hermicide. Basically, the article cites Elias Sports Bureau statistics in respect to the passing game and two primary factors that dictate wins/losses: First, the average pass (even counting incompletes) outgains the average run by 50-100%. Second, the team that scores first wins most NFL games. Keeping in mind that the article is somewhat dated (August 31, 2005), the statistics they use are pretty compelling in terms of winning percentage by lead in a game (previous five years). Lead Pct. Games Won 3-0 59% 7-0 71% 10-0 82% 14-0 87% The premise of the article is that, if you score first, you dramatically increase your odds of winning the game and passing teams (because the average yards per play is greater) have the best chance of scoring first. The following is quoted from the article ... "Last year, again according to Elias Sports Bureau statistics, the average NFL offense gained 4.1 yards per run and 6.1 yards per pass (even factoring in incompletes) — roughly a 50% advantage for pass plays. For good passing teams like New England and St. Louis, the average gain was about 7 yards per pass — a 75% advantage over an average running play. For a transcendent passing team, Peyton Manning's Colts, the average gain was 8.5 yards per pass — double the 4.3 yards averaged by Edgerrin James and other Indianapolis runners." http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-093...s-football-nfl Anyway, I googled up one of John Clayton's articles (writing for ESPN in 2005) and his statistics seem to support this theory (at least in part). Basically, his stats show that, in 2004, the Colts averaged 6.7 yards per play followed by the Vikes, Packers, Chiefs, Eagles, Goats, Rams, Eggos, etc. And, 10 of the 13 teams who led the league in YPP made the playoffs. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...710&type=story My crack research group loves defense as much as the next homer, and certainly, the best of all worlds is a balanced, high quality performance on both sides of the ball that not only defeats the enemy but shames them into oblivion and sends them home to their mothers. But, one has to admit that there's no substitute for points on the board when you need them and YPP (and by extension) an effective passing offense appears to be a major factor in accomplishing that goal. I'm interested in the Planet's take on this. FAX Disclaimers: Sorry if repost.
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