*Official Tampa Bay Rays vs. KC Royals 4/7 Game Thread*

[Canofbier]

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_______________________(4-3)__________(2-3)_______________________

================================7:10PM CST===============================

========Matt Moore (0-1, 3.18 ERA)======VS.=======Jason Vargas (0-0, 1.29 ERA)=======

May my 3,333rd post carry the hot mojo needed for our third win of the season tonight!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BeMyValentine

And luckily Belly's speed doesn't clog up the bases when he does get a single.

Maybe if the Royals were overflowing with hitters who could get on base and hit .300, that would be a really big issue.

But they don't.

Think about the options to replace him:

FA off the street (2x the cost for the same production, likely)

Justin Maxwell (would K 200 times as a full time player, has career .227 average, is 30)

Jorge Bonifacio (started this year at AA and likely is not ready for 2015)

Brett Eibner (good OF defender with big power and good OBP skills, strikes out a ton and isn't good against RHP)

Sure, the Royals could rotate their other hitters through the DH spot to keep them fresh and give more at bats to complementary bench pieces, but most of the teams that have done that have gotten WORSE production out of their DH spot. Some drastically so.

The Royals offense is BETTER this year with Billy than it would have been without him. And that would likely be the case next season, as well...

[BeMyValentine]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Maybe if the Royals were overflowing with hitters who could get on base and hit .300, that would be a really big issue.

But they don't.

Think about the options to replace him:

FA off the street (2x the cost for the same production, likely)

Justin Maxwell (would K 200 times as a full time player, has career .227 average, is 30)

Jorge Bonifacio (started this year at AA and likely is not ready for 2015)

Brett Eibner (good OF defender with big power and good OBP skills, strikes out a ton and isn't good against RHP)

Sure, the Royals could rotate their other hitters through the DH spot to keep them fresh and give more at bats to complementary bench pieces, but most of the teams that have done that have gotten WORSE production out of their DH spot. Some drastically so.

The Royals offense is BETTER this year with Billy than it would have been without him. And that would likely be the case next season, as well...

I think you make good points but if we are going to have a DH that hits singles and doubles we might as well have one that can run and play the field a little.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BeMyValentine

I think you make good points but if we are going to have a DH that hits singles and doubles we might as well have one that can run and play the field a little.

If he performs again this year like he did in 2013, I agree that they should move on from Butler.

If he's back to his career norms, ultimately, you're looking at a player who slugs .460+. That means he is pounding out 60 XBH, which is a perfectly respectable number for a DH.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If he performs again this year like he did in 2013, I agree that they should move on from Butler.

If he's back to his career norms, ultimately, you're looking at a player who slugs .460+. That means he is pounding out 60 XBH, which is a perfectly respectable number for a DH.

I agree. The DP's are fine in a year like 2012. But his 2013 numbers and his start to 2014 are what have a lot of fans upset. What is not respectable is a bunch of singles and double plays, especially from the 4-hole.

If we want to contend for a playoff spot this year, we need Billy to be 2012 Billy. That's what is frustrating for me, at least, because I'm not sure he has it in him to repeat those numbers.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

I agree. The DP's are fine in a year like 2012. But his 2013 numbers and his start to 2014 are what have a lot of fans upset. What is not respectable is a bunch of singles and double plays, especially from the 4-hole.

If we want to contend for a playoff spot this year, we need Billy to be 2012 Billy. That's what is frustrating for me, at least, because I'm not sure he has it in him to repeat those numbers.

People have been beating on Butler for this for years (here and elsewhere). It's just reaching critical mass of late. Yes, it is more glaring if he is OPSing .790 like he did last year than when he was .830+.

The Royals don't need a career year, IMO, out of Butler to make noise this year. Just his usual solid .305/17 HR/100 RBI/45 2B/.370 OBP/.465 SLG would be just fine.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

People have been beating on Butler for this for years (here and elsewhere). It's just reaching critical mass of late. Yes, it is more glaring if he is OPSing .790 like he did last year than when he was .830+.

The Royals don't need a career year, IMO, out of Butler to make noise this year. Just his usual solid .305/17 HR/100 RBI/45 2B/.370 OBP/.465 SLG would be just fine.

There you go...it was his drop off in doubles and RBI's last year that was the most glaring thing.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

People have been beating on Butler for this for years (here and elsewhere). It's just reaching critical mass of late. Yes, it is more glaring if he is OPSing .790 like he did last year than when he was .830+.

The Royals don't need a career year, IMO, out of Butler to make noise this year. Just his usual solid .305/17 HR/100 RBI/45 2B/.370 OBP/.465 SLG would be just fine.

2012 is looking like an outlier for him at this point. Hes never shown that much HR power except that year.

His doubles have been steadily decreasing for 3 or 4 years now.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

2012 is looking like an outlier for him at this point. Hes never shown that much HR power except that year.

His doubles have been steadily decreasing for 3 or 4 years now.

Combined 2Bs and HRs by Butler over the past 5 seasons:

72
60
63
61
42 - here's the outlier. If he does this again over the full 2014 season, adios Billy. I'm not convinced that will be the case, but we will see.

Prior to last year, Butler established a pretty strong track record of hitting a combined 60ish XBH. In 2012, a higher percentage of those were HR, depressing his 2B total. In other years, more of those were 2Bs, depressing his HR total.

There is not a multi-year trend in drop-off of XBH. Just a one year trend.

This season will tell if 2013 is an outlier or an indication of a degrade in talent. And his status next year will depend on it.

[petegz28]

Butler's issue is that he intentionally tries to hit for average. He needs to be a slugger, not a baserunner. I think his few hits this year were on the ground save one. His outs have all been on the ground save 2 or 3. That's a problem. Your #4 guy needs to be getting the ball in the air and driving the gaps. Not trying to smoke a worm-burner between SS and 3rd.

On top of all that the last few games he has shown terrible situational awareness.

Runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out, pitcher struggling to throw strikes and Butler swings 3-0 to get an out instead of making the pitcher work and most likely drawing a walk to load the bases for Gordon. Oh yea and that pitcher was Scherzer so nothing like bailing him out of a 3-0 count

Last night, runner on 3rd with less than 2 out and Billay swings at the 1st itch to hit one of his few fly balls which landed in the glove of the SS.

I don't know if he is pressing or just believes his own hype? Given his history I will go with the latter.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Butler's issue is that he intentionally tries to hit for average. He needs to be a slugger, not a baserunner. I think his few hits this year were on the ground save one. His outs have all been on the ground save 2 or 3. That's a problem. Your #4 guy needs to be getting the ball in the air and driving the gaps. Not trying to smoke a worm-burner between SS and 3rd.

I'll see if I can find it, but there was an article during spring training where Butler is quoted as saying "My job is to get on base"

I nearly fell out of my chair and I'm pretty sure I even brought it up in the repository thread.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

I'll see if I can find it, but there was an article during spring training where Butler is quoted as saying "My job is to get on base"

I nearly fell out of my chair and I'm pretty sure I even brought it up in the repository thread.

Assuming that is his job, he isn't doing very well considering it's his only job.

I mean at least when Escobar or Gordon or even Moose go into slumps that save runs with their defense. Billay has really been nothing more than a rally killing, base clogger since last year and this year he looks just like he did last year, rolling over the top on everything, not being patient, consistently hitting to the SS and 2nd baseman and hitting into DP's.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Assuming that is his job, he isn't doing very well considering it's his only job.

I mean at least when Escobar or Gordon or even Moose go into slumps that save runs with their defense. Billay has really been nothing more than a rally killing, base clogger since last year and this year he looks just like he did last year, rolling over the top on everything, not being patient, consistently hitting to the SS and 2nd baseman and hitting into DP's.

Billy Butler posted the 53rd-best OPS in baseball last year, and was 24th in the American League. Even in a down year, he still is a well above average offensive player. He was still the Royals best offensive player.

This concept that Butler is a detracting factor from the Royals offense is not based in reality.

Just like saying a guy with a career OBP of .365, and nearly 70 points higher than his BA, is not a "Patient" hitter is not based in reality.

Just like imagining that the Royals would be better off without Butler offensively is not based in reality.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Billy Butler posted the 53rd-best OPS in baseball last year, and was 24th in the American League. Even in a down year, he still is a well above average offensive player. He was still the Royals best offensive player.

This concept that Butler is a detracting factor from the Royals offense is not based in reality.

Just like saying a guy with a career OBP of .365, and nearly 70 points higher than his BA, is not a "Patient" hitter is not based in reality.

Just like imagining that the Royals would be better off without Butler offensively is not based in reality.

Yeah, we sorely need the slowest guy in baseball who can't field to be on our team to rack up those DP's between his singles.

Sorry, duncan, I have been on the anti-Butler wagon for the last 3 years. If he can't start hitting with some authoritah then he isn't doing this team any good.

He has 1 job, be a ****ing hitter!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah, we sorely need the slowest guy in baseball who can't field to be on our team to rack up those DP's between his singles.

Sorry, duncan, I have been on the anti-Butler wagon for the last 3 years. If he can't start hitting with some authoritah then he isn't doing this team any good.

He has 1 job, be a ****ing hitter!

When he is one of the 30-40 best hitters in baseball? I'd say he's doing his job.

Being on the "anti-Butler" wagon for the past three years is, frankly, a sign that you don't understand baseball. Sorry, but it's the truth.

In that time frame, he is:

34th in OPS (.831)
26th in BA (.298)
21st in OBP (.369)
49th in SLG (.462 - +/- .05 of Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Willingham, Ryan Howard, Alex Gordon, Paul Konerko, among others)
10th in RBI (284 - while playing on below-average offenses in 2/3 of years)
30th in XBH

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

When he is one of the 30-40 best hitters in baseball? I'd say he's doing his job.

Being on the "anti-Butler" wagon for the past three years is, frankly, a sign that you don't understand baseball. Sorry, but it's the truth.

In that time frame, he is:

34th in OPS (.831)
26th in BA (.298)
21st in OBP (.369)
49th in SLG (.462 - +/- .05 of Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Willingham, Ryan Howard, Alex Gordon, Paul Konerko, among others)
10th in RBI (284 - while playing on below-average offenses in 2/3 of years)
30th in XBH

I don' know baseball because I don't agree with you on a player??? , wow, okay dude, what the **** ever. Butler is a #4 on this team and this team only. He could not be a #4 on most other teams. He is overrated as a DH and we wouldn't miss a whole lot if he was replaced. I've been watching baseball for the better part of 43 years, I know baseball just fine, thank you.

FTR: I like Billay and I want him to do good. I just also realize he has hit his ceiling and in today's AL he is not a very effective player at the moment.