ProFootballFocus. QBs in Focus: Alex Smith

[ViperVisor]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...us-alex-smith/

Yuuuuppp....

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by milkman

It is a small sample size, which is the reason I have doubts.

However, while he has had games/spurts, he had never put together a string of 6 consecutive aggressive games together before.

Let's be 100% honest: He didn't have 6 aggressive games last season, and they weren't consecutive either.

His aggressive play started in the SD game. Followed up with an even better game against Denver.

He reverted back to "safe" Alex against Washington, (4 attempts over 10 yards for 38 yards total) really wasn't aggressive against Oakland - that was a YAC game (2 attempts over 10 yards - JC wide open) - and he was downright terrible against Indy.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by milkman

His second year under Harbaugh, he was extremely efficient, but he was still a conservative QB who wasn't forcing defenses to defend the entire field.

True enough, but do we actually know how much of that was him and how much of it was Harbaugh?

Granted, his conservative streak had been evident beforehand, but maybe its possible he became that way by playing for so many crap coaches/teams... then Harbaugh came in with solid defense, a run heavy offense and schemed Smith even more into a ball protecting game manager?

Either way, we know for sure that Reid is trying to break the worst of those conservative habits, and as you mentioned earlier, the last six games it looked to be working... I know its rare in todays NFL, but I just dont think Smith has hit his ceiling yet because he hasnt had a coach who is truly pushing him towards it like Reid has been.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Why are you using passing yardage as the marker of how good Smith has shown himself to be?

What the difference?

If I use passing yardage, you complain.

If I use YPA, you complain.

If I use TQBR, you complain.

If I use an advanced metric like DVOA, you complain.

It doesn't matter what evidence I provide, you have a problem with it.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Let's be 100% honest: He didn't have 6 aggressive games last season, and they weren't consecutive either.

His aggressive play started in the SD game. Followed up with an even better game against Denver.

He reverted back to "safe" Alex against Washington, (4 attempts over 10 yards for 38 yards total) really wasn't aggressive against Oakland - that was a YAC game (2 attempts over 10 yards - JC wide open) - and he was downright terrible against Indy.

If you look at the actual play by plays, Smith was plenty aggressive outside of the red zone in the first half. He went conservative in the second half when they had a huge lead as you'd expect, and had a bunch of short gains in the first halves of both games because they got a shitload of turnovers from the defense where they started off in the red zone. I don't have time to crunch the numbers, but I would imagine if you look at all possessions with a long field, you'd see a huge difference.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Let's be 100% honest: He didn't have 6 aggressive games last season, and they weren't consecutive either.

His aggressive play started in the SD game. Followed up with an even better game against Denver.

He reverted back to "safe" Alex against Washington, (4 attempts over 10 yards for 38 yards total) really wasn't aggressive against Oakland - that was a YAC game (2 attempts over 10 yards - JC wide open) - and he was downright terrible against Indy.

I wonder how much of that was game plan.

I am sure, and not trolling, that a lot of it is alex. He needs to be more aggressive.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

If you look at the actual play by plays, Smith was plenty aggressive outside of the red zone in the first half. He went conservative in the second half when they had a huge lead as you'd expect, and had a bunch of short gains in the first halves of both games because they got a shitload of turnovers from the defense where they started off in the red zone. I don't have time to crunch the numbers, but I would imagine if you look at all possessions with a long field, you'd see a huge difference.

Uh, I DID look at the play-by-play, along with the passing grid.

That's how I knew he only had 4 attempts over 10 yards in the WASH game for a total of 38 yards.

Basically, he was aggressive in 3 games last season - SD, DEN and @INDY.

His most aggressive game was Denver, with a whopping 12 shots downfield.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Ace

I wonder how much of that was game plan.

I am sure, and not trolling, that a lot of it is alex. He needs to be more aggressive.

Yep.

When you look closely, the Denver game at home is the only game in which he was really aggressive. That's what you hope for in the future.

12 shots downfield. Only completed 5 of them, but I can think of 2 that Avery dropped plus a well thrown ball that wasn't caught because our TE was unconscious before he hit the ground.

I think you could add up his shots downfield in the remaining regular season games and you wouldn't get near 12.

That game (or something close to it) should be the benchmark.

[hometeam]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Statistics is as much about history as it is about recency. What's most important is that his strong performances have come recently and they were consistently stronger than the Smith we're used to.

Smith started out with 9 overrated games. And then closed the season with 7 games that were actually very strong. That's a trend. He could easily go back to his conservative ways. But it's given at least some hope.

So, looking back 1 game is fine, but 1 season is not? Or, is it looking back far enough only to bolster your argument? Not only that, he did not consistently get better over the last 7 games. He was up and down as he had been the whole season, with his highest UP points landing about AVERAGE on what you would want your QB to do. In fact the only game where his stats look good is the one where he threw 4 screens and a flat route to JC for 200 yards receiving, with about 175 of them after the catch~

[Pasta Little Brioni]

I saw a QB this team cam absolutely win with last year especially down the stretch. You will see what you want to see though.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by hometeam

So, looking back 1 game is fine, but 1 season is not? Or, is it looking back far enough only to bolster your argument? Not only that, he did not consistently get better over the last 7 games. He was up and down as he had been the whole season, with his highest UP points landing about AVERAGE on what you would want your QB to do. In fact the only game where his stats look good is the one where he threw 4 screens and a flat route to JC for 200 yards receiving, with about 175 of them after the catch~

Smith didn't have an up and down run his final 7 games. He had a shitty game against Indy. You can't blame the QB because he didn't put up gaudy stats in a blowout.

And I've already said a million times, anybody who says he is a middle of the road QB because that's what he's always been for a long time has by far the stronger argument right now. I only said that because his last 7 games were mostly strong, that's reason to at least wonder if he's turned a corner. If he was great the first 7, then fizzled the last 9 that would be a different story.

[hometeam]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Smith didn't have an up and down run his final 7 games. He had a shitty game against Indy. You can't blame the QB because he didn't put up gaudy stats in a blowout.

And I've already said a million times, anybody who says he is a middle of the road QB because that's what he's always been for a long time has by far the stronger argument right now. I only said that because his last 7 games were mostly strong, that's reason to at least wonder if he's turned a corner. If he was great the first 7, then fizzled the last 9 that would be a different story.

They where not mostly strong. over the last 8 games including the play off game he was an average/decent QB 4 times, a pretty good one once, and 3 games he threw less than 155 yards. DUring that time we went 3-5 as well.

Hell, take out JCs legendary YAC performance in the raiders game, and the guy only throws 1 TD per game, and ya'll want to give the man Tom Brady money.

Crazy.

Im still firmly on the "Alex Smith is JAG" fence post. Hes not utter dogshit like Cassel, but he isn't someone I want to see the Chiefs latch onto for long term. Period. Settling for mediocrity at the QB position has been KC'S MO since Green left. Im tired of the shit, but if the fanbase gobbles it up, why would they do anything more?

Smith will NEVER be a guy who can elevate the talent around him. He will NEVER be a guy that you can put the game on his back and tell him to go win it. Best you get with him is "Meh, dont screw it up"

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

What the difference?

If I use passing yardage, you complain.

If I use YPA, you complain.

If I use TQBR, you complain.

If I use an advanced metric like DVOA, you complain.

It doesn't matter what evidence I provide, you have a problem with it.

This site has many fans that extremely analytical which is why both of the baseball threads are amazing, unfortunately the football side is bunch of drooling morons anymore.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

What the difference?

If I use passing yardage, you complain.

If I use YPA, you complain.

If I use TQBR, you complain.

If I use an advanced metric like DVOA, you complain.

It doesn't matter what evidence I provide, you have a problem with it.

This from the guy who complains when others use QB rating, wins or INTs? Come on, now. I was asking a serious question. Why use yardage? It's all but guaranteed to be an issue when you're comparing QBs by passing yardage, because the numbers are going to be heavily-based on game plan. How are you going to take that into account?

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Uh, I DID look at the play-by-play, along with the passing grid.

That's how I knew he only had 4 attempts over 10 yards in the WASH game for a total of 38 yards.

Basically, he was aggressive in 3 games last season - SD, DEN and @INDY.

His most aggressive game was Denver, with a whopping 12 shots downfield.

That's a fair comment. But to be clear, it's not that he wasn't aggressive in Washington or Oakland. Against Oakland, they were getting 25+ yard gainers on a designed screen play. Hard to go away from that. Against Washington, they spent the entire second half protecting a 31 point lead. In the first half, they had 3 drives placed within Washington's 25 yard line because of a punt return or turnover. When you take away red zone passes, Smith had a short pass go for a 22 yard TD, and his passes went for 9 yards, 22 yards, 16 yards, 26 yards, all to wideouts. Not the type of passing you'd expect to see out of Smith.

So I disagree that you can call Washington not aggressive, but will give you Oakland. I'll also agree that technically you have one aggressive half against Washington, then SD, Denver, Indy so just 3.5 games. It's an even smaller sample size. Again, you have the winning hand right now. I think we're giving him a little more benefit of the doubt because he probably knows his defense won't carry him and because Reid wants his QBs to be aggressive.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by hometeam

They where not mostly strong. over the last 8 games including the play off game he was an average/decent QB 4 times, a pretty good one once, and 3 games he threw less than 155 yards. DUring that time we went 3-5 as well.

Hell, take out JCs legendary YAC performance in the raiders game, and the guy only throws 1 TD per game, and ya'll want to give the man Tom Brady money.

Crazy.

Im still firmly on the "Alex Smith is JAG" fence post. Hes not utter dogshit like Cassel, but he isn't someone I want to see the Chiefs latch onto for long term. Period. Settling for mediocrity at the QB position has been KC'S MO since Green left. Im tired of the shit, but if the fanbase gobbles it up, why would they do anything more?

Smith will NEVER be a guy who can elevate the talent around him. He will NEVER be a guy that you can put the game on his back and tell him to go win it. Best you get with him is "Meh, dont screw it up"

I never said I'd commit to him long term or give him Brady money. Who's said that? That is crazy talk to say he pulled in a bunch of mediocre games from a " he wasn't aggressive enough" standpoint. He played a few excellent games to close the season and closed with an outstanding playoff performance.

It's fair to question the sample size. But there were several games where Smith looked like a much different QB than we've seen his entire career. I am not saying it's a trend that will continue. I just hope it is.