The First Round QB

[ILChief]

OK, everyone knows it is beyond ridiculous that the Chiefs haven't drafted a QB in round 1 since Todd Blackledge in 1983. As much as I love Derrick Johnson, I can't look at him without thinking of Aaron Rodgers. That got me thinking, how many first round QB's have the other teams taken in that time span? Has every other team taken multiple first round QBs since 1983? Well, here is the breakdown:

Patriots: Drew Bledsoe (93)
Bills: JP Losman (04), EJ Manuel (13)
Jets: Chad Pennington (00), Mark Sanchez (09)
Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (12)

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger (04)
Bengals: David Klingler (92), Akili Smith (99), Carson Palmer (03)
Old Browns/Ravens: Kyle Boller (03), Joe Flacco (08)
New Browns: Tim Couch (99), Brady Quinn (07), Branden Weeden (12), Johnny Manziel (14)

Texans: David Carr (02)
Oilers/Titans: Jim Everett (86), Steve McNair (94), Vince Young (06), Jake Locker (11), Marcus Mariota (15)
Jaguars: Byron Leftwich (03), Blaine Gabbert (11), Blake Bortles (14)
Colts: Jeff George (90), Peyton Manning (98), Andrew Luck (12)

Broncos: Tommy Maddox (92), Jay Cutler (06), Tim Tebow (10), Paxton Lynch (16)
Raiders: Todd Marinovich (91), Jamarcus Russell (07)
Chargers: Ryan Leaf (98), Philip Rivers (04)

Cowboys: Troy Aikman (89)
Eagles: Donovan McNabb (99), Carson Wentz (16)
Giants: Eli Manning (04)
Redskins: Heath Shuler (94), Patrick Ramsey (02), Jason Campbell (05), Robert Griffin III (12)

Packers: Aaron Rodgers (05)
Bears: Jim Harbaugh (87), Cade McNown (99), Rex Grossman (03)
Vikings: Daunte Culpepper (99), Christian Ponder (11), Teddy Bridgewater (14)
Lions: Chuck Long (86), Andre Ware (90), Joey Harrington (02), Matt Stafford (09)

Panthers: Kerry Collins (94), Cam Newton (11)
Bucs: Vinny Testaverde (87), Trent Dilfer (94), Josh Freeman (09), Jameis Winston (15)
Saints: None
Falcons: Chris Miller (87), Michael Vick (01), Matt Ryan (08)

49ers: Jim Druckenmiller (97), Alex Smith (05)
Seahawks: Dan McGwire (91), Rick Mirer (93)
Rams: Sam Bradford (10), Jared Goff (16)
Cardinals: Kelly Stouffer (87), Matt Leinart (06)

Notes:
The Saints are the only other team to not draft a first round QB in that time (although they have had a franchise QB for a decade plus so they haven't really needed one)

The teams that have only drafted one QB in that time frame have all had a franchise QB for an extended period (except the Texans and they are a new team)

Embarassing

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Nickhead

shaub became predictable and fragile. i would never take shaub over alex. so there is that

Agreed. Matt Shaub is not starting in the NFL. Does anyone really believe that if we let Alex Smith go he wouldn't be starting somewhere else? There are a lot of teams that would give Smith a starting job, but none that will give Schaub one. Smith>Schaub.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by splatbass

Seems like a good possibility. Seems like him. same stupid ideas, same citing fantasy stats to make his moronic points.

third down conversion percentage, passing first downs, yards per completion, red zone percentage have nothing to do with fantasy football, and everything to do with being a competent QB in real life

not a mult, just another chiefs fan tired of game managers. look around, there are plenty of us coming out of the woodwork.

[Nickhead]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

That's a complete unobjective opinion.

Schaub's worst full season was better than Smith's best full season.

does the fact he has not been a starting qb for the last four years tell you something?

shaub's best season he had 15 int's and the team finished 9-7. that was 8 years ago.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by splatbass

Agreed. Matt Shaub is not starting in the NFL. Does anyone really believe that if we let Alex Smith go he wouldn't be starting somewhere else? There are a lot of teams that would give Smith a starting job, but none that will give Schaub one. Smith>Schaub.

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in ****ing love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

[Nickhead]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in ****ing love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

see, here you are trying to pervert the truth. were you to make this a valid argument you would have said the chiefs should have drafted shaub instead of TE kris wilson

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in ****ing love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

I guarantee he wouldn't be our starter today if we had drafted him in 2004, so I don't see the point in your post. But I guess if we drafted him in the 1st you would think he was the GOAT, since that seems to be the way you judge QBs. Judging by results, I would take Alex Smith over Matt Schaub today, and since it is 2017 not 2004 that is all that really matters to me.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Nickhead

see, here you are trying to pervert the truth. were you to make this a valid argument you would have said the chiefs should have drafted shaub instead of TE kris wilson

i was trying to make a point about the first round, though

the chiefs traded out and picked junior siavii, one of the worst expenditures of a first round pick by this team in it's entire history

they would have been better off staying put and picking the next QB taken which wasn't until the THIRD round

THAT is how low the standard is for some of this franchise's first round picks over the last 15 years

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by splatbass

I guarantee he wouldn't be our starter today if we had drafted him in 2004, so I don't see the point in your post.

the point is that's clearly the right thing to do for this team going forward.

we've been ****ing up not drafting QBs for 15 years, if not longer.

time to change that strategy. soon. we literally have nothing to lose, because what we've been doing at the QB position flat out doesn't work, and the last four years are just adding to the mountain of evidence assembled by this franchise.

[Nickhead]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

i was trying to make a point about the first round, though

the chiefs traded out and picked junior siavii, one of the worst expenditures of a first round pick by this team in it's entire history

they would have been better off staying put and picking the next QB taken which wasn't until the THIRD round

THAT is how low the standard is for some of this franchise's first round picks over the last 15 years

another thing you are perverting, is the same could be said about flacco. and he has won a superbowl, and the chiefs passed him over twice too.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

the point is that's clearly the right thing to do for this team going forward.

we've been ****ing up not drafting QBs for 15 years, if not longer.

time to change that strategy. soon. we literally have nothing to lose, because what we've been doing at the QB position flat out doesn't work, and the last four years are just adding to the mountain of evidence assembled by this franchise.

Actually it's like 32 years.

[ChiefsCountry]

Here is all of the QBs that were selected next after our pick since 2001. When were original pick in the draft before trades.

2001 - Drew Brees
2002 - Patrick Ramsey
2003 - Kyle Bollar
2004 - Matt Schuab
2005 - Aaron Rodgers
2006 - Kellen Clemens
2007 - Kevin Kolb
2008 - Joe Flacco
2009 - Mark Sanchez
2010 - Tim Tebow
2011 - Andy Dalton
2012 - Brandon Weeden
2013 - EJ Manuel
2014 - Teddy Bridgewater
2015 - Garrett Grayson
2016 - Christian Hackenberg

Years in which the QB would have been better than our selection.
2001 Brees > Trent Green trade
2004 Schaub > Junior Savii
2005 Rodgers > Derrick Johnson
2008 Flacco > Dorsey
2009 Sanchez > Tyson Jackson
2011 Dalton > Baldwin
2014 Bridgewater > Ford

Years in which our selection was better
2002 Sims > Ramsey
2003 Larry Johnson > Boller (Polomanu would have been even better)
2006 Tamba Hali > Clemens
2007 Bowe > Kolb
2010 Berry > Tebow
2012 Poe > Weeden
2013 Fisher > Manuel
2015 Peters > Grayson
2016 Jones > Hackenberg

[Hammock Parties]

It really is a shame Vermeil didn't take Brees as his first pick.

It would have been a difficult 5 years with that defense but I'm guessing Breesy would have won a Super Bowl with Herm Edwards coaching up the defense. I actually think that would have been a really good QB-HC combo. A lot like Manning-Dungy.

Brees handing off to prime LJ and chucking it to Bowe and Gonzalez would have been fun.

[Rain Man]

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:

• Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
  1 Peyton Manning 38.0
  3 Matt Ryan 20.2
  1 Cam Newton 20.0
  24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
  11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
  1 Eli Manning 17.2
  4 Philip Rivers 17.2
  1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
  2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
  1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
  1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
  1 Andrew Luck 15.4
  1 Carson Palmer 15.1
  1 Jameis Winston 13.5
  5 Kerry Collins 13.0
  3 Steve McNair 13.0
  18 Joe Flacco 13.0
  1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
  11 Jay Cutler 11.8
  1 Alex Smith 11.7
  3 Jim Everett 11.0
  26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
  1 Michael Vick 11.0
  8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
  1 Jeff George 9.0
  2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
  3 Blake Bortles 9.0
  1 Sam Bradford 8.6
  11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
  13 Chris Miller 8.0
  5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
  2 Carson Wentz 7.0
  6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
  2 Robert Griffin 6.6
  3 Vince Young 6.0
  3 Joey Harrington 6.0
  18 Chad Pennington 6.0
  10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
  25 Jason Campbell 5.0
  1 David Carr 5.0
  2 Rick Mirer 5.0
  1 Tim Couch 4.0
  17 Josh Freeman 4.0
  19 Kyle Boller 4.0
  32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
  12 Christian Ponder 3.0
  7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
  16 EJ Manuel 2.8
  1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
  3 Heath Shuler 2.0
  22 Brady Quinn 2.0
  22 J.P. Losman 2.0
  22 Rex Grossman 2.0
  25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
  25 Tim Tebow 1.0
  22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
  8 Jake Locker 1.0
  3 Akili Smith 1.0
  6 David Klingler 1.0
  12 Chuck Long 1.0
  10 Matt Leinart 1.0
  32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
  1 Jared Goff 0.0
  26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
  22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
  12 Cade McNown 0.0
  2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
  26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
  16 Dan McGwire 0.0
  24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
  7 Andre Ware 0.0
  6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0

35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:

• Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
  1 Peyton Manning 38.0
  3 Matt Ryan 20.2
  1 Cam Newton 20.0
  24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
  11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
  1 Eli Manning 17.2
  4 Philip Rivers 17.2
  1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
  2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
  1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
  1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
  1 Andrew Luck 15.4
  1 Carson Palmer 15.1
  1 Jameis Winston 13.5
  5 Kerry Collins 13.0
  3 Steve McNair 13.0
  18 Joe Flacco 13.0
  1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
  11 Jay Cutler 11.8
  1 Alex Smith 11.7
  3 Jim Everett 11.0
  26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
  1 Michael Vick 11.0
  8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
  1 Jeff George 9.0
  2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
  3 Blake Bortles 9.0
  1 Sam Bradford 8.6
  11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
  13 Chris Miller 8.0
  5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
  2 Carson Wentz 7.0
  6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
  2 Robert Griffin 6.6
  3 Vince Young 6.0
  3 Joey Harrington 6.0
  18 Chad Pennington 6.0
  10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
  25 Jason Campbell 5.0
  1 David Carr 5.0
  2 Rick Mirer 5.0
  1 Tim Couch 4.0
  17 Josh Freeman 4.0
  19 Kyle Boller 4.0
  32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
  12 Christian Ponder 3.0
  7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
  16 EJ Manuel 2.8
  1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
  3 Heath Shuler 2.0
  22 Brady Quinn 2.0
  22 J.P. Losman 2.0
  22 Rex Grossman 2.0
  25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
  25 Tim Tebow 1.0
  22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
  8 Jake Locker 1.0
  3 Akili Smith 1.0
  6 David Klingler 1.0
  12 Chuck Long 1.0
  10 Matt Leinart 1.0
  32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
  1 Jared Goff 0.0
  26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
  22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
  12 Cade McNown 0.0
  2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
  26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
  16 Dan McGwire 0.0
  24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
  7 Andre Ware 0.0
  6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0

35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

You need to get out more.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:

• Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
  1 Peyton Manning 38.0
  3 Matt Ryan 20.2
  1 Cam Newton 20.0
  24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
  11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
  1 Eli Manning 17.2
  4 Philip Rivers 17.2
  1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
  2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
  1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
  1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
  1 Andrew Luck 15.4
  1 Carson Palmer 15.1
  1 Jameis Winston 13.5
  5 Kerry Collins 13.0
  3 Steve McNair 13.0
  18 Joe Flacco 13.0
  1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
  11 Jay Cutler 11.8
  1 Alex Smith 11.7
  3 Jim Everett 11.0
  26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
  1 Michael Vick 11.0
  8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
  1 Jeff George 9.0
  2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
  3 Blake Bortles 9.0
  1 Sam Bradford 8.6
  11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
  13 Chris Miller 8.0
  5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
  2 Carson Wentz 7.0
  6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
  2 Robert Griffin 6.6
  3 Vince Young 6.0
  3 Joey Harrington 6.0
  18 Chad Pennington 6.0
  10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
  25 Jason Campbell 5.0
  1 David Carr 5.0
  2 Rick Mirer 5.0
  1 Tim Couch 4.0
  17 Josh Freeman 4.0
  19 Kyle Boller 4.0
  32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
  12 Christian Ponder 3.0
  7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
  16 EJ Manuel 2.8
  1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
  3 Heath Shuler 2.0
  22 Brady Quinn 2.0
  22 J.P. Losman 2.0
  22 Rex Grossman 2.0
  25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
  25 Tim Tebow 1.0
  22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
  8 Jake Locker 1.0
  3 Akili Smith 1.0
  6 David Klingler 1.0
  12 Chuck Long 1.0
  10 Matt Leinart 1.0
  32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
  1 Jared Goff 0.0
  26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
  22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
  12 Cade McNown 0.0
  2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
  26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
  16 Dan McGwire 0.0
  24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
  7 Andre Ware 0.0
  6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0

35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

I wish they used equations like this to teach algebra I may have learned something. I agree with splatbass you need to get out more RM