|
03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
Sexiest Athlete
Join Date: Apr 2001
Casino cash: $11925
|
Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
Posts: 12,675
|
03-23-2013, 11:01 AM | #91 |
The Boom Boom Room
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Far Beyond Comprehension
Casino cash: $-597187
|
Furthermore, it would be nice to be comfortable with a QB in the clutch, and when someone asks you if you are worried during a game when KC is down needing a FG or TD to win. All you have to say is " No, because we have _insert badass QB here_ and he's going to do _insert badass QB here_ shit now."
__________________
|
Posts: 42,523
|
03-23-2013, 11:03 AM | #92 | |
The 23rd Pillar
Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $10019237
|
Quote:
__________________
“Boy, you all want power. God, I hope you never get it.” - Lindsay Graham |
|
Posts: 110,871
|
03-23-2013, 11:03 AM | #93 | ||
Mindful Taoist German
Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $7481662
|
Yes, they do.
At most you'll go one draft without a franchise guy drafted but most years there's at least one. The deciding factor is if you're both luck and smart enough to identify that guy...
__________________
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
Posts: 74,926
|
03-23-2013, 11:13 AM | #94 |
Admitted Planet Junky
Join Date: Oct 2000
Casino cash: $621627
|
What percentage of busts are because of the team that drafted them? By the term "team" I am including owners, FO and coaches. I am sure that there have been several QBs that would have been successful if they would have been put into a better situation.
__________________
Fanaticism is nowhere. There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism. |
Posts: 19,375
|
03-23-2013, 11:14 AM | #95 | |
The 23rd Pillar
Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $10019237
|
Quote:
It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ. I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.
__________________
“Boy, you all want power. God, I hope you never get it.” - Lindsay Graham |
|
Posts: 110,871
|
03-23-2013, 11:26 AM | #96 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Mar 2007
Casino cash: $7684388
|
All this article says is that for every Peyton Manning you have a Jamarcus Russell, so the player that falls in the middle of those types is Brad Johnson. In a perfect world of averages, you end up with Brad Johnson. It doesn't take into account the strength and/or weakness of each draft class, or a teams proclivity for screwing up the draft or drafting well.
__________________
Mismanaging the clock. |
Posts: 22,412
|
03-23-2013, 11:38 AM | #97 |
DT CARD COLLECTOR
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: ManCave
Casino cash: $10005837
|
Yea, Because Cassel threw for 112 TD's and over 12,000 @ USC
The only comparison you have is USC.
__________________
667 Different DT cards and counting |
Posts: 7,574
|
03-23-2013, 11:39 AM | #98 |
DT CARD COLLECTOR
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: ManCave
Casino cash: $10005837
|
__________________
667 Different DT cards and counting |
Posts: 7,574
|
03-23-2013, 11:47 AM | #99 |
Starter
Join Date: Feb 2013
Casino cash: $10005192
|
7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?
|
Posts: 182
|
03-23-2013, 11:48 AM | #100 |
First Overall
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: kcmo
Casino cash: $10007271
|
"That said, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what a given pick’s CAV will be, as the standard deviations are very large"
In a nutshell, that is what this article says and I agree. I like the PFR "CAV" also as I believe it is relatively accurate.
__________________
The Greatest |
Posts: 10,580
|
03-23-2013, 11:49 AM | #101 |
I’m a Mahomo!
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Mid-Missouri
Casino cash: $6771021
|
In a word.
YES
__________________
|
Posts: 54,038
|
03-23-2013, 11:50 AM | #102 |
Amateur Poster
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $4127091
|
|
Posts: 15,298
|
03-23-2013, 11:53 AM | #103 | |
DT CARD COLLECTOR
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: ManCave
Casino cash: $10005837
|
Quote:
You may have a QB controversy before he is ready.
__________________
667 Different DT cards and counting |
|
Posts: 7,574
|
03-23-2013, 11:55 AM | #104 |
DT CARD COLLECTOR
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: ManCave
Casino cash: $10005837
|
__________________
667 Different DT cards and counting |
Posts: 7,574
|
03-23-2013, 11:56 AM | #105 |
Andy Reid Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2012
Casino cash: $759611
|
If we really wanted Geno Smith, than we would have just taken him 1st overall instead of trading for Alex Smith.
__________________
Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Jared Wiley |
Posts: 47,716
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|