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View Poll Results: Which player would you most want on your team?
Anthony Munoz 2 1.89%
Deacon Jones 3 2.83%
Aaron Rodgers 97 91.51%
Obligatory Gaz option/I'm not participating in this stupid poll option 4 3.77%
Voters: 106. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-05-2013, 11:30 AM   #1
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Here is my main problem with this offseason. A good majority of the posters who are "Geno fanatics" are legitimately saying that there is about a 5% chance that we draft him. The people who are against Geno are saying that there is a 0% chance that we draft him. Who is more realistic?

No one knows shit.

But I love how Geno is at 2% and Joeckel is at 50%. FWIW.....every ****ing player in this draft is at 50% because no one knows shit.
That's the unrealistic simplifying assumption that the pro-Geno guys make precisely because they don't know shit.* The important part of that sentence that people around here tend to ignore is the "unrealistic" part. By making that simplifying assumption, as baseless as it is, you get to move on to the positional value argument and at that point the QB always wins.

But it's not true that no one knows shit. The vast majority of people who do this for a living agree that Luke Joeckel rates above Geno Smith on a BPA scale. Even the GMs who are telling Mel Kiper that Geno Smith will be drafted in the top 10 think of him as more of a 20-32 ranked player, for example. But almost everyone agrees that Luke Joeckel is a top 5 player (conservatively speaking) on a BPA list.

____________
* BTW, I'd be the first to admit that I don't know shit either, but I don't discount all of the information from draft experts that we have available to us just because I don't like what they're saying. It's overwhelming.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:31 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
That's the unrealistic simplifying assumption that the pro-Geno guys make precisely because they don't know shit. The important part of that sentence that people around here tend to ignore is the "unrealistic" part. By making that simplifying assumption, as baseless as it is, you get to move on to the positional value argument and at that point the QB always wins.

But it's not true that no one knows shit. The vast majority of people who do this for a living agree that Luke Joeckel rates above Geno Smith on a BPA scale. Even the GMs who are telling Mel Kiper that Geno Smith will be drafted in the top 10 think of him as more of a 20-32 ranked player, for example. But almost everyone agrees that Luke Joeckel is a top 5 player (conservatively speaking) on a BPA list.
And you're basing this off of what? Mock Drafts?
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:43 AM   #3
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And you're basing this off of what? Mock Drafts?
Basing what? The relative positions of Joeckel and Geno on BPA lists? If so, I'm basing it on the analysis and reporting that's gone on throughout this off-season. The thing I mentioned about Kiper came from his most recent podcast. But that's just an example of the same concept that's been repeatedly reported this off-season. There are a few outliers who have claimed that Geno Smith deserves to be considered among the top players in this draft, but the majority have him significantly lower even if there is quite a bit of sentiment that he'll be over-drafted because he's a QB. Almost no one says that Joeckel deserves to be considered anything less than top 5 (and to be honest, I haven't seen anyone saying he's less than top 3).
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:33 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
But it's not true that no one knows shit. The vast majority of people who do this for a living agree that Luke Joeckel rates above Geno Smith on a BPA scale. Even the GMs who are telling Mel Kiper that Geno Smith will be drafted in the top 10 think of him as more of a 20-32 ranked player, for example. But almost everyone agrees that Luke Joeckel is a top 5 player (conservatively speaking) on a BPA list.
Until they play a down they are only a chance at a great player.

At any position...
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:33 AM   #5
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Until they play a down they are only a chance at a great player.

At any position...
This.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:44 AM   #6
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Until they play a down they are only a chance at a great player.

At any position...
Not all chances are created equal.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:45 AM   #7
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Not all chances are created equal.
Odds are still only odds...
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:48 AM   #8
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Odds are still only odds...
Cool.

Tell you what, we'll GM two different teams.

I'll draft all the prospects that have a pretty good chance of panning out.

You can draft all the prospects that have a poor chance of panning out.

We'll see who's better in five years.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:50 AM   #9
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Cool.

Tell you what, we'll GM two different teams.

I'll draft all the prospects that have a pretty good chance of panning out.

You can draft all the prospects that have a poor chance of panning out.

We'll see who's better in five years.
Ok, but you only get 1 pick in each round...
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:52 AM   #10
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Ok, but you only get 1 pick in each round...
Sounds good.

I'm pretty sure every single person on this forum would bet on the odds that my team is far better in 5 years.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:45 AM   #11
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Until they play a down they are only a chance at a great player.

At any position...
That doesn't make them all equal draft prospects. I'm not even sure why you bothered to type that.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:49 AM   #12
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That doesn't make them all equal draft prospects. I'm not even sure why you bothered to type that.
Because teams don't go by "value draft" charts.

They don't and they never will.

Teams don't care who's rated where by any media outlet. Not even the one we decide to value most.

Each team has it's own value on every player and it's impossible to know where the true "value" is for any player.

All that matters is how many players you did or didn't add to your team...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
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Quote:
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I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:54 AM   #13
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Because teams don't go by "value draft" charts.

They don't and they never will.

Teams don't care who's rated where by any media outlet. Not even the one we decide to value most.

Each team has it's own value on every player and it's impossible to know where the true "value" is for any player.

All that matters is how many players you did or didn't add to your team...
I don't know what you're talking about, but it has nothing to do with what I posted.
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Old 04-05-2013, 11:58 AM   #14
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I don't know what you're talking about, but it has nothing to do with what I posted.
You'll figure it out...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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Old 04-05-2013, 03:07 PM   #15
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I'm sure this is going to be viewed by some as stupid, but would the Chiefs be wise to consider maybe drafting Roger's little brother Jordan (especially if he is available in a later round)?
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