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01-15-2013, 08:23 AM | #31 |
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01-15-2013, 08:50 AM | #32 |
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Very interesting stuff MagicHef. Good work
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01-15-2013, 08:55 AM | #33 |
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01-15-2013, 12:37 PM | #34 |
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Ok, this makes me feel a little better. Plotting total snaps against experience changes things:
5th year players played more snaps at DT than rookies did. 6th year players played only 6 fewer snaps than rookies over the course of 5 years. The first big drop off doesn't occur until year 10. |
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01-15-2013, 12:39 PM | #35 |
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Good work looks interesting. Keep up the good work
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01-15-2013, 01:00 PM | #36 | |
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Quote:
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01-15-2013, 01:11 PM | #37 |
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01-15-2013, 01:13 PM | #38 |
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Okay, Rain Man, what is the best way to weed out the players that never had a chance of succeeding?
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01-15-2013, 01:53 PM | #39 | |
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Quote:
Here's something I came up with. If we limit it to guys who have a full 5 years of data, hopefully we can cover close to the entire range of experience while getting rid of the guys who can't play. Most players wouldn't play for 5 years if they were terrible. I made the graph below by limiting it to guys with 5 years of experience. The pink line is their average rating, yellow is median, and blue is every player's rating summed, divided by the sum of their snaps, then multiplied by a constant (total snaps of all players divided by total player-seasons). If that makes sense. I'm not sure which line would give the best sense of typical development. |
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01-16-2013, 12:07 PM | #40 |
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Ok, one (maybe) last thing before I do DEs and OLBs. Here's the same draft position chart as before, but with some percentiles (90, 75, 50, 25, 10) added in. Hopefully it will give us something useful to compare with the draft data for other positions.
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01-16-2013, 12:41 PM | #41 |
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I think the key to a really good DT is heart. It's a horrible job and can really wear you down. It's a job that has very little reward. You have to find a guy that will weather the storm because the transition from college to pro is a really tough one at that position. People like to look at size and strength when evaluating these guys but the motor and the desire to play football are the biggest factors imo. The good ones are always extremely driven.
If KC drafts a DT, I hope they draft Jenkins from Georgia (if he provs to want it bad enough). He is an experienced 3-4 NT and the learning curve might not be as bad. I know we probably won't be in a position to take him but, he would be my guy... |
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01-16-2013, 03:32 PM | #42 |
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Ok, I've done DE/OLBs. I put them on the same graphs as the DTs to compare.
First, their "development" (snap weighted average grade by experience): Snap Count: Draft (just DE/OLBs, not DTs): |
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01-16-2013, 04:55 PM | #43 |
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who in the **** thought Tyson Jackson was a good idea in the top 3 - holy ****....
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