Chiefs Power Rankings Roundup - Week 6 - Page 3

**DaFace** · 10-09-2013, 02:30 PM

I tried this out a week ago, and people seemed to like it. So, here's a quick summary of how the AFCW looks in terms of perceived team rankings this week.

Over time, I might try and put together some charts that plot power rankings over time or something like that. Once all the data is in there, it's pretty easy to work with. Just let me know if this is interesting or if no one cares.

Also, I have data for everyone, so let me know if anyone's interested in other divisions or anything like that.

**Rain Man** · 10-09-2013, 08:08 PM

Wait. Now that I think back, it was me with the body odor. He was just intolerant of it. I knew it had something to do with body odor.

a pp roach · 10-09-2013, 08:17 PM

yet, a game with two teams with a combined 3 wins gets the nod for #1 cbs game this sunday.

not that we like you anyway, jim nantz

**DaFace** · 10-09-2013, 09:12 PM

OK, I've still got a few to go in terms of data entry, but I've got enough to play with. Here are a couple cool charts.

Not that this is surprising, but so much for the NFC being the dominant conference this year:

And so much for the AFCW being the division to beat up on this year:

**DaFace** · 10-09-2013, 09:17 PM

Oh, and here's the AFCW just for fun.

patteeu · 10-09-2013, 09:33 PM

Pretty cool stuff.

whoman69 · 10-09-2013, 10:00 PM

I always thought that Sagarin rewarded teams with tough schedules even if those teams lose to the top teams. Now I really can't understand their ratings at all. Atlanta is ranked 17th with a 1-4 record. Their schedule is ranked 12th and their one win was over the 30th ranked team. The Jets are ranked 25th with the 13th ranked schedule but are 3-2. The Jets beat the Falcons head to head on the road, though their other two wins are against bottom feeders. The Texans are also ranked behind Atlanta despite having a better record of 2-3 and the 2nd hardest schedule in the league.

**DaFace** · 10-10-2013, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

it would be interesting to see the teams we've played and how they move over time...

I got all of the data entered last night that I could find (still missing some from early weeks from places that don't archive), but here ya go.

Dotted lines = next three opponents
Big dots = when we played them

It's actually kind of cool to look at. Not surprisingly, every team takes a dip after they lose to us. According to general opinion, the Titans game was our toughest of the season - right up there with the Cowboys. The Raiders game still isn't EXPECTED to be a challenge, but you know how those things go.

Feel free to ask for other stuff. I'm happy to play with it in other ways as long as it's not TOO time consuming.

**Rain Man** · 10-10-2013, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

OK, I've still got a few to go in terms of data entry, but I've got enough to play with. Here are a couple cool charts.

Not that this is surprising, but so much for the NFC being the dominant conference this year:

I noticed this the other day. The AFC is killing the NFC this year. We'll see if it evens up over time, but the interconference records were as lopsided as I've ever seen.

**DaFace** · 10-10-2013, 11:07 AM

Last one before I give up on this for a while. Here's a chart that illustrates who the biggest "surprises" have been so far this year:

MagicHef · 10-10-2013, 12:38 PM

I don't know if this is the best place to post this, but at least you can add this into your aggregate, if you so choose.

I've made a ranking system that compares stats against opponent's averages in other games. For instance, in week 1 KC scored 28, compared to the 33.75 JAX has been allowing in other games, and allowed 2, compared to the 12.25 JAX has been scoring in other games, so they receive a -5.75 in scoring offense and a +10.25 in scoring defense for that game.

The system tracks 8 stats like this:
Scoring O
Scoring D
YPC gained
YPC allowed
YPA gained
YPA allowed
Total yards per total plays gained
Total yards per total plays allowed

It then determines the correlation between wins so far in 2013, and these 8 stats, creates a coefficient for each stat based on said correlation, and makes an offensive and defensive score for each team using all 8 of the stats.. Adding these together gives the following ranking through 5 weeks:

1 DEN
2 SEA
3 GB
4 NO
5 IND
6 SF
7 KC
8 PHI
9 CIN
10 DAL
11 TEN
12 NYJ
13 CHI
14 NE
15 MIA
16 CAR
17 CLE
18 HOU
19 BAL
20 SD
21 DET
22 MIN
23 ATL
24 WAS
25 BUF
26 OAK
27 ARI
28 TB
29 PIT
30 NYG
31 STL
32 JAX

Or, if you plot each team with O and D separately (x is O and y is D) you get:

**the Talking Can** · 10-10-2013, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

I got all of the data entered last night that I could find (still missing some from early weeks from places that don't archive), but here ya go.

Dotted lines = next three opponents
Big dots = when we played them

It's actually kind of cool to look at. Not surprisingly, every team takes a dip after they lose to us. According to general opinion, the Titans game was our toughest of the season - right up there with the Cowboys. The Raiders game still isn't EXPECTED to be a challenge, but you know how those things go.

Feel free to ask for other stuff. I'm happy to play with it in other ways as long as it's not TOO time consuming.

that is cool...winning harms your own team's perception, especially early in the season with a small sample size...that titan's win will look better as the season progresses

**the Talking Can** · 10-10-2013, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

Last one before I give up on this for a while. Here's a chart that illustrates who the biggest "surprises" have been so far this year:

Geno!

**DaFace** · 10-10-2013, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I don't know if this is the best place to post this, but at least you can add this into your aggregate, if you so choose.

I've made a ranking system that compares stats against opponent's averages in other games. For instance, in week 1 KC scored 28, compared to the 33.75 JAX has been allowing in other games, and allowed 2, compared to the 12.25 JAX has been scoring in other games, so they receive a -5.75 in scoring offense and a +10.25 in scoring defense for that game.

The system tracks 8 stats like this:
Scoring O
Scoring D
YPC gained
YPC allowed
YPA gained
YPA allowed
Total yards per total plays gained
Total yards per total plays allowed

It then determines the correlation between wins so far in 2013, and these 8 stats, creates a coefficient for each stat based on said correlation, and makes an offensive and defensive score for each team using all 8 of the stats.. Adding these together gives the following ranking through 5 weeks:

1 DEN
2 SEA
3 GB
4 NO
5 IND
6 SF
7 KC
8 PHI
9 CIN
10 DAL
11 TEN
12 NYJ
13 CHI
14 NE
15 MIA
16 CAR
17 CLE
18 HOU
19 BAL
20 SD
21 DET
22 MIN
23 ATL
24 WAS
25 BUF
26 OAK
27 ARI
28 TB
29 PIT
30 NYG
31 STL
32 JAX

Or, if you plot each team with O and D separately (x is O and y is D) you get:

Very cool - I love stuff like that. It's interesting to me that so many different ways of doing offense and defense power rankings. At a glance, your chart ends up having a lot in common with Advanced NFL Stats' visualization data, yet they use a completely different algorithm to do it.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teams...ualization.php

**DaFace** · 10-10-2013, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

Geno!

Heh...I was fine with the Alex Smith route, but you can't deny that Geno has given that team new life.

10-09-2013, 02:30 PM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1476899	Power Rankings Roundup - Week 6 I tried this out a week ago, and people seemed to like it. So, here's a quick summary of how the AFCW looks in terms of perceived team rankings this week. Over time, I might try and put together some charts that plot power rankings over time or something like that. Once all the data is in there, it's pretty easy to work with. Just let me know if this is interesting or if no one cares. Also, I have data for everyone, so let me know if anyone's interested in other divisions or anything like that.
Posts: 52,047

10-09-2013, 08:08 PM	#31
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $2768491 VARSITY	Wait. Now that I think back, it was me with the body odor. He was just intolerant of it. I knew it had something to do with body odor. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,868

10-09-2013, 08:17 PM	#32
a pp roach Veteran Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10010545	yet, a game with two teams with a combined 3 wins gets the nod for #1 cbs game this sunday. not that we like you anyway, jim nantz
Posts: 2,047

10-09-2013, 09:12 PM	#33
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1476899	OK, I've still got a few to go in terms of data entry, but I've got enough to play with. Here are a couple cool charts. Not that this is surprising, but so much for the NFC being the dominant conference this year: And so much for the AFCW being the division to beat up on this year:
Posts: 52,047

10-09-2013, 09:17 PM	#34
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1476899	Oh, and here's the AFCW just for fun.
Posts: 52,047

10-09-2013, 09:33 PM	#35
patteeu The 23rd Pillar Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $10019237	Pretty cool stuff. __________________ “Boy, you all want power. God, I hope you never get it.” - Lindsay Graham
Posts: 110,871

10-10-2013, 11:07 AM	#39
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1476899	Last one before I give up on this for a while. Here's a chart that illustrates who the biggest "surprises" have been so far this year:
Posts: 52,047

10-10-2013, 12:38 PM	#40
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $2050247	I don't know if this is the best place to post this, but at least you can add this into your aggregate, if you so choose. I've made a ranking system that compares stats against opponent's averages in other games. For instance, in week 1 KC scored 28, compared to the 33.75 JAX has been allowing in other games, and allowed 2, compared to the 12.25 JAX has been scoring in other games, so they receive a -5.75 in scoring offense and a +10.25 in scoring defense for that game. The system tracks 8 stats like this: Scoring O Scoring D YPC gained YPC allowed YPA gained YPA allowed Total yards per total plays gained Total yards per total plays allowed It then determines the correlation between wins so far in 2013, and these 8 stats, creates a coefficient for each stat based on said correlation, and makes an offensive and defensive score for each team using all 8 of the stats.. Adding these together gives the following ranking through 5 weeks: 1 DEN 2 SEA 3 GB 4 NO 5 IND 6 SF 7 KC 8 PHI 9 CIN 10 DAL 11 TEN 12 NYJ 13 CHI 14 NE 15 MIA 16 CAR 17 CLE 18 HOU 19 BAL 20 SD 21 DET 22 MIN 23 ATL 24 WAS 25 BUF 26 OAK 27 ARI 28 TB 29 PIT 30 NYG 31 STL 32 JAX Or, if you plot each team with O and D separately (x is O and y is D) you get:
Posts: 10,583

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