Chiefs Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite? - Page 3

**Rain Man** · 11-13-2013, 12:54 PM

Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it.

I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites

The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com.

It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places.

One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line.

Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering.

But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.

Mr. Arrowhead · 11-13-2013, 01:54 PM

Not surprising, 95% of the media is gay for the broncos

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

Not surprising, 95% of the media is gay for the broncos

I doubt it's that high.

tk13 · 11-13-2013, 02:02 PM

Plus people love offense over defense. That's how it always is. The Chiefs are considered a defensively oriented team... so people assume if they even have a chance it'll be a close, hard fought game... if not things will get away from them. I think generally speaking people will always pick the offensive team over the defensive one. Even though history says that's not true.

Funny thing about that is the Chiefs and Broncos are still far and away 1/2 in the AFC in point differential. The Chiefs are +104... there is nothing flukey about that.

DJ's left nut · 11-13-2013, 02:05 PM

Yeah, I figured on an 8 point spread before this came out. This isn't terribly surprising.

Honestly, I'd either lay the points and pick Denver, or I'd take the Chiefs to win outright and bet the money line. If it stays within a TD, I think the Chiefs will win it.

BigCatDaddy · 11-13-2013, 02:06 PM

Our offense is piss poor and we are going to run into an offense that is going to put up points at home. Makes perfect sense to me. If you want to bet, then bet the 49 point under. I'm seeing 24-10 ish. We aren't going undefeated as nice as that would be. It's going to be the 03 Bengals/Chiefs all over again. They will be fired up for a 9-0 team coming into their place.

Before people start bitching about "Wanting the Chiefs to lose" I think we can beat them at home with some chilly weather and wild crowd.

Now back to your regular scheduled homer ranting.

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Plus people love offense over defense. That's how it always is. The Chiefs are considered a defensively oriented team... so people assume if they even have a chance it'll be a close, hard fought game... if not things will get away from them. I think generally speaking people will always pick the offensive team over the defensive one. Even though history says that's not true.

Funny thing about that is the Chiefs and Broncos are still far and away 1/2 in the AFC in point differential. The Chiefs are +104... there is nothing flukey about that.

The only thing flukey is the D/ST scoring - yes, all production counts, but you can't always rely on D/ST to bail you out. I believe that is the perception with KC right now.

D/ST has 7 TDs through 9 games... compared to 9 passing and 7 rushing.

htismaqe · 11-13-2013, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

The only thing flukey is the D/ST scoring - yes, all production counts, but you can't always rely on D/ST to bail you out. I believe that is the perception with KC right now.

D/ST has 7 TDs through 9 games... compared to 9 passing and 7 rushing.

When you win half your games that way, it's a fluke.

When you win ALL of your games that way, it's a hallmark.

mr. tegu · 11-13-2013, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

The only thing flukey is the D/ST scoring - yes, all production counts, but you can't always rely on D/ST to bail you out.

If there was ever a week to count on it, it is this week.

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

When you win half your games that way, it's a fluke.

When you win ALL of your games that way, it's a hallmark.

Ok, so it's happened in 5 of 9 games... is that a fluke?

KCUnited · 11-13-2013, 02:13 PM

Reid is 13-1 off the bye. Chuefs outright!

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

If there was ever a week to pray for it, it is this week.

FYP

easymobee · 11-13-2013, 02:16 PM

3 PTs for home field

Denver scores 17.5 more PTs per game than Kc

Denver also gives up 14.1 more points on average.

There are a few PTs in there too somewhere though.

I'm not sure, but I think that the point spread was 8 and that the higher amount of money was taking KC and the points ( 60% of it: source Deadspin ) before DBowe did his cheech and Chong impression. So that might've swung it the other half pt.

You can dig through all the stats and everything else, but it basically comes down to Manning vs Smith.

**ptlyon** · 11-13-2013, 02:18 PM

Missed it in all the bickering, what's the O/U?

BigCatDaddy · 11-13-2013, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Missed it in all the bickering, what's the O/U?

49.5 last I looked. Pretty high.

BWillie · 11-13-2013, 02:19 PM

I'm going to make a bold prediction. Denver only scores 17 points. Massive forehead throws two interceptions.

Chiefs 21-17.

Worst 10-0 team in history.

View Poll Results: Before reading this, what point spread would you have guessed?
Virtuous Chiefs by 7+	8	5.88%
Virtuous Chiefs by 5 to 6.5	2	1.47%
Virtuous Chiefs by 3 to 4.5	13	9.56%
Virtuous Chiefs by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Push	4	2.94%
Cheating Broncos by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Cheating Broncos by 3 to 4.5	26	19.12%
Cheating Broncos by 5 to 6.5	29	21.32%
Cheating Broncos by 7+	49	36.03%
I don't deal with math and probabilities. I hire people for that.	3	2.21%
Voters: 136. You may not vote on this poll

11-13-2013, 12:54 PM
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $2938491 VARSITY	Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite? Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it. I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com. It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places. One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line. Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering. But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.
Posts: 141,719

11-13-2013, 01:54 PM	#31
Mr. Arrowhead MVP Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Wichita Casino cash: $10015708	Not surprising, 95% of the media is gay for the broncos
Posts: 7,763

11-13-2013, 02:02 PM	#33
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1622500	Plus people love offense over defense. That's how it always is. The Chiefs are considered a defensively oriented team... so people assume if they even have a chance it'll be a close, hard fought game... if not things will get away from them. I think generally speaking people will always pick the offensive team over the defensive one. Even though history says that's not true. Funny thing about that is the Chiefs and Broncos are still far and away 1/2 in the AFC in point differential. The Chiefs are +104... there is nothing flukey about that.
Posts: 55,021

11-13-2013, 02:05 PM	#34
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $2629099	Yeah, I figured on an 8 point spread before this came out. This isn't terribly surprising. Honestly, I'd either lay the points and pick Denver, or I'd take the Chiefs to win outright and bet the money line. If it stays within a TD, I think the Chiefs will win it. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 60,822

11-13-2013, 02:06 PM	#35
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $1649122	Our offense is piss poor and we are going to run into an offense that is going to put up points at home. Makes perfect sense to me. If you want to bet, then bet the 49 point under. I'm seeing 24-10 ish. We aren't going undefeated as nice as that would be. It's going to be the 03 Bengals/Chiefs all over again. They will be fired up for a 9-0 team coming into their place. Before people start bitching about "Wanting the Chiefs to lose" I think we can beat them at home with some chilly weather and wild crowd. Now back to your regular scheduled homer ranting.
Posts: 25,918

11-13-2013, 02:13 PM	#40
KCUnited Cheat Death Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Land of Drincoln Casino cash: $1908244	Reid is 13-1 off the bye. Chuefs outright!
Posts: 34,132

11-13-2013, 02:16 PM	#42
easymobee _\|_ (^_^) _\|_ Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Playoffs Casino cash: $10005075	3 PTs for home field Denver scores 17.5 more PTs per game than Kc Denver also gives up 14.1 more points on average. There are a few PTs in there too somewhere though. I'm not sure, but I think that the point spread was 8 and that the higher amount of money was taking KC and the points ( 60% of it: source Deadspin ) before DBowe did his cheech and Chong impression. So that might've swung it the other half pt. You can dig through all the stats and everything else, but it basically comes down to Manning vs Smith. __________________ ...............................
Posts: 607

11-13-2013, 02:18 PM	#43
ptlyon Bono & Grbac wasn't enough Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Sioux City, IA Casino cash: $12723829	Missed it in all the bickering, what's the O/U? __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Advertise here: $19.99 a month
Posts: 34,026

11-13-2013, 02:19 PM	#45
BWillie El Gato Gordo Loco Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Earth Casino cash: $2051241	I'm going to make a bold prediction. Denver only scores 17 points. Massive forehead throws two interceptions. Chiefs 21-17. Worst 10-0 team in history. __________________ Who wants free money? Use the link below to sign up at Bovada, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker and Ignition. Contact me for private deals, spot bonuses, possible rakeback or any questions! Bovada, Ignition, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker: baldeaglepoker.com Bovada Poker is back! Get up to $500 poker deposit bonus.
Posts: 46,425

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode