Justin Houston SHOULD be traded

[kcbubb]

Update 4/17:

I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team.

Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here:
Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/
Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt.

With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston.

If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity.

Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team.

The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory.

I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply.

Original post from 3/12 below:

The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016.

The Chiefs should do this bc:

1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents.

2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond.

3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition.

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks!

5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench.

In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract.

[CaliforniaChief]

Pay the man. He's entering his prime, folks. He's a devastating pass rusher, a great leader, and just an all around grade A bad ass. And he's OUR bad ass.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Pay the man. He's entering his prime, folks. He's a devastating pass rusher, a great leader, and just an all around grade A bad ass. And he's OUR bad ass.

I'm not sure he's some kind of great leader, but everything else... absolutely.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Here's the funny part - I think some people are saying "Woah, that's nowhere near enough for the Chiefs to get for Houston - you're an idiot!" Then we have another group of people saying "Woah, the Chiefs could never get that much for Houston, you're an idiot!"

Honestly, I don't even know that he's an idiot here. I just think that he's being a seriously fatalist pussy.

"Oh well, the Chiefs are going to suck anyway, might as well blow it up and wait for everyone else to get old...."

**** that - this team can win. Why go all Eeyore on it? This team might be good enough to contend with Dupree and Erving. That trade scenario he proposed really isn't a bad one and yes, Dupree is exactly as freakish as he KCBubb says he is. The Jags may be hard up to get Leonard Williams and Justin Houston on the same D (though that seems unlikely). If we don't do the deal, the team is definitely good enough to win with Justin Houston still on it. Just discuss football, don't be a mopey ****.

People are calling him an idiot seemingly from both sides of this argument. It might suggest that he's not that far out - I just lost interest quickly because he's such a bleeding vag in how he went about suggesting it.

and there's a 3rd group saying that no such trade is even feasible in the nfl...any more than cheese can be made into gold


but it sure is fun to contemplate trading Houston for.......Cameron Erving....I mean, print those superbowl tickets

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Pay the man. He's entering his prime, folks. He's a devastating pass rusher, a great leader, and just an all around grade A bad ass. And he's OUR bad ass.

Well shit - you should totally get on the horn with Dorsey.

I'm positive he hasn't tried to throw a ton of money at Justin Houston to this point. If he'd have only known that 'paying the man' was going to get him on board long-term, he'd have totally done it.

Jesus people - it takes two sides to get a deal done. Dorsey's already shown that he'll give Houston $13 million in guaranteed money for one friggen season so it obviously stands to reason that he's ready to make a pretty large commitment to Justin Houston.

Houston, OTOH, appears to want some comically insane deal like Suh just got. In that case no, you don't just 'pay the man'.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Here's the funny part - I think some people are saying "Woah, that's nowhere near enough for the Chiefs to get for Houston - you're an idiot!" Then we have another group of people saying "Woah, the Chiefs could never get that much for Houston, you're an idiot!"

Honestly, I don't even know that he's an idiot here. I just think that he's being a seriously fatalist pussy.

"Oh well, the Chiefs are going to suck anyway, might as well blow it up and wait for everyone else to get old...."

**** that - this team can win. Why go all Eeyore on it? This team might be good enough to contend with Dupree and Erving. That trade scenario he proposed really isn't a bad one and yes, Dupree is exactly as freakish as he KCBubb says he is. The Jags may be hard up to get Leonard Williams and Justin Houston on the same D (though that seems unlikely). If we don't do the deal, the team is definitely good enough to win with Justin Houston still on it. Just discuss football, don't be a mopey ****.

People are calling him an idiot seemingly from both sides of this argument. It might suggest that he's not that far out - I just lost interest quickly because he's such a bleeding vag in how he went about suggesting it.

Trading Houston (parroting what I said in the 'Maddenesque Trade' thread) makes sense if you believe he has no intention in signing a long term deal in Kansas City.

And in my line of thought (which you've panned) is that it's better to KC to lose some "value" in a trade versus getting blindsided by a post-draft offer sheet signing or losing "value" in taking a deal with less compensation than what's entitled by the franchise tag to have control over what team winds up with Houston.

No one knows exactly if Houston never wants to play in KC as part of the home team ever again, so a lot of this is just conjecture.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

**** that - this team can win. Why go all Eeyore on it?

This.

This team could win playoff games with Smith if we quit doing stupid $3it like drafting guys to be b/u's and wasting money on scrubbs that don't contribute.

We've cut most of those scrubs. We've finally added a legit weapon at WR.

This team is run like Phat Andy believes in Smith while Dorsey just nods his head and says "yup. You bet buddy."

Then he turns around and puts that QB in the worst possible position. You don't sign a guy with two or three huge negatives and then put him in a position, of your own making, to make his weaknesses even more exposed.

It's ****ing dumb.

We have Smith. I don't like it - you don't like it - and it really looks like Dorsey doesn't like it. But it's about ****ing time we started adding players to play to his strengths instead of removing guys that add to his numerous weaknesses...

[kcbubb]

What side of the fence are you on? Some of you say, justin Houston is not worth a late first in 2016 & 2017 (no team will give two 1sts!) and others are saying Houston is worth more than a high 2nd this year and a potentially high 1st next year. A high 2nd this year and a potentially high 1st next year is worth more than a late first in 2016 & 2017.

If you say that no team will give a late first in 2016 & 2017, then you are saying that Houston isn't worth the trade.

Conversely, most of the board said Houston was worth more than early 2nd and early first in 2016, which is clearly worth more than a late first in 16 & 17.

Which is it?

Either he has the value or he doesn't.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

and there's a 3rd group saying that no such trade is even feasible in the nfl...any more than cheese can be made into gold


but it sure is fun to contemplate trading Houston for.......Cameron Erving....I mean, print those superbowl tickets

But that's kinda the point.

You have a bunch of different groups all approaching the offer itself from wildly divergent points of view - doesn't that suggest the offer isn't completely insane?

The old saying is a good one - a good deal leaves everyone walking away dissatisfied. If people are saying that both sides of this trade would screw the other side (or conversely get screwed), then it stands to reason that it's closer to a reality than thought.

I agree with you - nobody's going to offer a sheet for Houston and I don't think the Jags would make this deal. But then you start to say that you'd hate to see the Chiefs make said deal to take Cameron Erving and suddenly you're smack on the other side of your ire. Are the Jags giving up too much or are the Chiefs getting too little? Kinda has to be one or the other here, no?

The offer isn't that out of bounds. It's a shitload less nutty than that piece of horseshit Discuss Thrower threw out there and everyone just ignored. It's just not likely to happen.

[saphojunkie]

Tamba Hali and Mike DeVito didn't take a paycut to watch Justin Houston get turned into a rookie guard.

If they were going to trade Houston, it would be for two first rounders, one of them in the top ten this year.

Period.

And even then... why? Charles, Hali, Smith, DeVito, Derrick Johnson, Bowe... these guys have maybe two years at best of being able to contribute to a deep playoff run. And don't even get ****ing snarky about Alex Smith not being able to win in the playoffs. Of course he can. But having the NFL sack leader on your team makes that kinda, I don't know, MUCH MORE LIKELY.

The fact is, we don't need to trade Houston to be able to stock this team in the draft. We already have four picks in the top 100 and another 6 this year alone. There's plenty of young talent in Gaines, Davis, Kelce, Poe, DAT, Maclin, Bailey, Ford. This team is SO ****ING CLOSE to being an actually balanced squad.

If we hit on our first couple picks this year, the Chiefs are going to be damn good and damn soon.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

What side of the fence are you on? Some of you say, justin Houston is not worth a late first in 2016 & 2017 (no team will give two 1sts!) and others are saying Houston is worth more than a high 2nd this year and a potentially high 1st next year. A high 2nd this year and a potentially high 1st next year is worth more than a late first in 2016 & 2017.

If you say that no team will give a late first in 2016 & 2017, then you are saying that Houston isn't worth the trade.

Conversely, most of the board said Houston was worth more than early 2nd and early first in 2016, which is clearly worth more than a late first in 16 & 17.

Which is it?

Either he has the value or he doesn't.

Your value system is flawed. AT WORST it would be the first this year and the 2nd next year.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Trading Houston (parroting what I said in the 'Maddenesque Trade' thread) makes sense if you believe he has no intention in signing a long term deal in Kansas City.

And in my line of thought (which you've panned) is that it's better to KC to lose some "value" in a trade versus getting blindsided by a post-draft offer sheet signing or losing "value" in taking a deal with less compensation than what's entitled by the franchise tag to have control over what team winds up with Houston.

No one knows exactly if Houston never wants to play in KC as part of the home team ever again, so a lot of this is just conjecture.

The Chiefs gain no value in your trade. They move down without getting the 2nd they should and get a 1st that has the value of the second they should've had. Literally no value added. Meanwhile, if they get 'blindsided' by an offer sheet after the draft, they get 2 1st rounders without having to give up the damn #18 pick in the draft. They get FAR more value that way, if only because they literally got nothing in return for your deal.

You're not taking less in return for Houston under your scenario - you're essentially taking nothing.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I just think that he's being a seriously fatalist pussy.

which.. you would think 90% of CP would agree with and put him on a pedestal over.

[Dartgod]

Put down the bong and slowly walk away.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chiefs gain no value in your trade. They move down without getting the 2nd they should and get a 1st that has the value of the second they should've had. Literally no value added. Meanwhile, if they get 'blindsided' by an offer sheet after the draft, they get 2 1st rounders without having to give up the damn #18 pick in the draft. They get FAR more value that way, if only because they literally got nothing in return for your deal.

You're not taking less in return for Houston under your scenario - you're essentially taking nothing.

Put it this way: where does Justin Houston fit on this chart?

[The Bad Guy]

Get ****ed