DVOA and Postseason odds tracking

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I absolutely love advanced analytics. We have access to more information than ever and it's great.

That being said, the sheer volume of it has kind of made us forget that there are intangibles that numbers can't measure, like heart, will, and momentum.

Momentum isn’t a real thing it’s fairy dust

Don’t argue this I’ll fight you

[JimNasium]

Originally Posted by O.city

Momentum isn’t a real thing it’s fairy dust

Don’t argue this I’ll fight you

Unsure if sarcasm, but everyone has seen momentum shifts in any sport.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by O.city

Momentum isn’t a real thing it’s fairy dust

Don’t argue this I’ll fight you

Yeah, I think it's crazy overstated, like saying the Bills' running up scores on last place teams in December give them all the momentums for playing real teams in January. And it's easy to find teams that play like shit in December and then win the Super Bowl.

I think more commonly it's confidence and things that happen within a game to create momentum one way or another.... one good thing that gets the rest of the team focused and in the groove, or one bad thing that snowballs into a choke job.

I've never really felt like momentum game-to-game is really a thing, but I'm also not a professional athlete... at that point I think you've simply made the adjustments or whatever to be playing better.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Math doesn't even make any sense, teams locked into having to win 4 playoff games like the Ravens should not mathematically have better odds.

That's exactly what you're seeing in the CCG appearance though... Chiefs and Lions have a higher chance at appearing in that game since they have the first round bye.

Originally Posted by Basileus777

NFL just has too many numbers with no predictive ability behind them, DVOA does not tell you who is more likely to win playoff matchups.

It predicts it to the extent of historical DVOA numbers, and given 4 teams are all within 2.4% of each other, yeah it's not a crazy strong predictor.

The Ravens' H I S T O R I C DVOA last season probably ****ed up the numbers ever so slightly by not even making it to the Super Bowl.

[TwistedChief]

So let me get this straight: if Sneed hadn't punched the ball out from Flowers at the goal line and we lost, then DVOA would be a success? But because we won the game, it's a failure?

These are predictive statistics that are a single metric by which to judge like anything else. I think some of you don't understand that if a team has a 60% chance to win, that team still loses 40% of the time. And in a sample size of 1, anything can happen, and it does nothing to necessarily invalidate the model.

DVOA attempts to level the playing field. Would it be better to just simply look at wins and losses? Of course not. And that's why we care about strength of schedule. But are wins and losses combined with strength of schedule the best predictor? Not necessarily, because you may have played a team at the beginning of the season and beaten them when they were playing poorly versus later when they're on a 6-game winning streak. DVOA accounts for that and goes deeper based on how both sides of the ball are playing.

That Ravens team last year was phenomenal. Just because the buzzsaw of Mahomes and Spags won out doesn't mean these don't add something important to the discourse.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

So let me get this straight: if Sneed hadn't punched the ball out from Flowers at the goal line and we lost, then DVOA would be a success? But because we won the game, it's a failure?

These are predictive statistics that are a single metric by which to judge like anything else. I think some of you don't understand that if a team has a 60% chance to win, that team still loses 40% of the time. And in a sample size of 1, anything can happen, and it does nothing to necessarily invalidate the model.

DVOA attempts to level the playing field. Would it be better to just simply look at wins and losses? Of course not. And that's why we care about strength of schedule. But are wins and losses combined with strength of schedule the best predictor? Not necessarily, because you may have played a team at the beginning of the season and beaten them when they were playing poorly versus later when they're on a 6-game winning streak. DVOA accounts for that and goes deeper based on how both sides of the ball are playing.

That Ravens team last year was phenomenal. Just because the buzzsaw of Mahomes and Spags won out doesn't mean these don't add something important to the discourse.

Yep, and I misstated "not a crazy strong predictor"... it's probably a very strong predictor in terms of being in the top 5 of DVOA and making it far in the playoffs, versus being ranked 20th and making the SB.

However, the difference between being 1st and 2nd in DVOA isn't some huge difference and the numbers are saying exactly that... literally a 2% difference in the chance to make or win these games.

And people can talk other variables... injuries and so forth, but given the predictions are literally just looking at past results, all of that's already baked in.

The Ravens losing doesn't make it a failure, it just ever so slightly moves the needle for future predictions.

[staylor26]

If the numbers tell you Lamar Jackson has a better shot holding a WC spot than Mahomes holding the 1st seed, the numbers are useless.

[DRM08]

DVOA is stupid. The 2023 Ravens are evidence of that. Supposedly an all-time great team according to DVOA, but not even capable of winning a conference title with home field advantage.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DRM08

DVOA is stupid. The 2023 Ravens are evidence of that. Supposedly an all-time great team according to DVOA, but not even capable of winning a conference title with home field advantage.

You really think this invalidates DVOA?

[KC_Connection]

By single-game DVOA, the last three weeks have been Kansas City's third, fourth, and fifth best games of the year. They're heating up!

— Aaron Schatz �� (@ASchatzNFL) December 23, 2024

[Hammock Parties]

dynamite gif

[O.city]

“Momentum is only as good as the next play call”

[Hammock Parties]

HAHA WHAT

72.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
39.1% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.0% chance SB Win (1st)

[PatMahomesIsGod]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

HAHA WHAT

72.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
39.1% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.0% chance SB Win (1st)

NFC is gonna beat each other up. Potentially 2 Lions-Vikes matchups in 3 games, then the winner gets Philly or an upset team with momentum.

Chiefs, with the Texans or Steelers as possible Divisional opponents, have an easier path.

[Basileus777]

Chiefs are the only team to have locked up the #1 seed, which should be a massive advantage in these sort of odds.



Also injuries are not factored in so Lions/Vikings odds should probably be flipped.