Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 270

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 10:36 AM

It's a midwestern thing, I guess. Hard-working midwestern white guy who has a hot start to his career is always beloved. It happens in St. Louis and Cleveland, too.

People don't want to look at how mediocre he was after his first month. Lough was .268/.296/.376 from July 1 on. I think his chances of being an everyday player basically died during that period.

Regarding the roster... I wouldn't be surprised if Dyson is the odd man out.

Perez
No. 2 C
Butler
Hosmer
Infante
Escobar
Moustakas
Valencia
Bonifacio
Gordon
Cain
Aoki
Maxwell

Shields
Vargas
Guthrie
Duffy
Davis

Holland
Hochevar
Crow
Collins
Bueno/Joseph
Coleman
Long reliever

**alnorth** · 12-19-2013, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

The one thing that DM has been very good at in his tenure is utilizing the DL to carry more people than the typical 25. You can only do that for so long, but it at least gives him the opportunity to get extended looks at guys before making a decision

Yeah, and if no one is either hurt or "hurt", then maybe pitcher #12 doesn't have to physically be in Omaha while we're on the road.

If we're on a long road trip, the odd man out can be in the plane with the team and if our bullpen gets bombed, then the next day pitcher #12 can flip-flop with someone else who has options and who is gassed to be active for one day, then switch back the day after he pitches.

**noa** · 12-19-2013, 10:45 AM

I will be very unhappy if Davis gets another shot at being in the starting rotation.
Posted via Mobile Device

**alnorth** · 12-19-2013, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Regarding the roster... I wouldn't be surprised if Dyson is the odd man out.

I'll be shocked if Dyson doesn't make the team. If we weren't contending I could see that, but for a team that is ostensibly all-in and is going to scrap and claw and fight and yell for a wild card, Dyson is awfully valuable.

His speed is a skill that maybe only 2 or 3 other players in the game have, and sometimes you just have to get Butler to 2nd base in the 8th or 9th inning down 1 run. If we try to put him on waivers, someone will claim him.

Cain's also pretty fragile and Dyson's his backup in CF.

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noa

I will be very unhappy if Davis gets another shot at being in the starting rotation.
Posted via Mobile Device

I'd expect Davis to start the season in the rotation unless they sign one more SP.

They get another look at him as a starter (and see if he can be at least league-average as he was early in his career as a starter). It also allows them to keep Ventura in Omaha at the start of the year, winning the service time game.

I imagine they'll have a quick hook on him... wouldn't expect him to get more than about 6-7 weeks in the rotation if he's struggling (which likely amounts to 5 or 6 starts, if they load up games for the top of the rotation again).

Great Expectations · 12-19-2013, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noa

I will be very unhappy if Davis gets another shot at being in the starting rotation.
Posted via Mobile Device

I think it is inevitable

**gblowfish** · 12-19-2013, 10:53 AM

Unless Moose and Butler come back in better condition and hit for some power, 2014 isn't going to be any better. HATE Davis in the starting rotation. Maybe we'll still have a shot at bringing Santana back? Nobody's jumped on him yet.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2013, 10:55 AM

Apparently some GM's are not convinced about Tanaka not getting posted even though Rakuten said they will make Tanaka the highest-paid player in NPB history. They think Rakuten is just going through some long asian face-saving thing where they eventually post him.

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

I'll be shocked if Dyson doesn't make the team. If we weren't contending I could see that, but for a team that is ostensibly all-in and is going to scrap and claw and fight and yell for a wild card, Dyson is awfully valuable.

His speed is a skill that maybe only 2 or 3 other players in the game have, and sometimes you just have to get Butler to 2nd base in the 8th or 9th inning down 1 run. If we try to put him on waivers, someone will claim him.

Cain's also pretty fragile and Dyson's his backup in CF.

Comes down to being comfortable with carrying 11 pitchers. If they're comfortable with that, Dyson makes the club.

If you must carry 12 pitchers, Dyson is the odd man out, IMO. Bonifacio can play CF and also offers the pinch running ability (though he isn't quite as good a baserunner as Dyson). Aoki also can play CF.

I agree that Dyson is valuable, but looking at who's available, the roster decision is going to come down to carrying Dyson as a 5th outfielder or a long reliever.

Of course, they DO seem to think Louis Coleman sucks, so maybe he spends another year at Omaha in lieu of Dyson.

**DeezNutz** · 12-19-2013, 11:01 AM

Can't worry about service time for 2014. Ventura must start with the club, and Davis needs to be in the pen, unless he's traded (which would be outstanding, assuming Hoch is still here).

Furthermore, while I hate Dyson in the starting lineup with any regularity, he's far too valuable coming off the bench when 2B must be stolen.

BigCatDaddy · 12-19-2013, 11:06 AM

I think Dyson will make it. Wasn't Maxwell rumored to be traded to LA? I think that's pretty telling of they feel about the OF.

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Unless Moose and Butler come back in better condition and hit for some power, 2014 isn't going to be any better. HATE Davis in the starting rotation. Maybe we'll still have a shot at bringing Santana back? Nobody's jumped on him yet.

I don't like the idea of Davis in the rotation long term, but I think we'll see at least a short-term attempt at making him work in the rotation. Gives them time to make a final decision on him as a starter and also saves some time on Ventura.

If Davis can be a league average type starter, those 2015 and 2016 option years (average salary: $7.5 million) become palatable.

There's a shot at bringing Santana back, but I think it gets worse if Masahiro Tanaka doesn't get posted.

As for 2014 being any better, let's look at it position by position:

C - Sal Perez: Same/better (I think he continues progressing as a hitter, personally)
1B - Eric Hosmer: Same/better (If he does what he did from June 1 on, .370 OBP and .500, all year, it's a big upgrade)
2B - Omar Infante: Big upgrade
SS - Alcides Escobar: Worst case, he's just as inept at the plate as in 2013 (but it hurts less because he's hitting 9th rather than 2nd). Decent chance for him to be improved, though.
3B - Moustakas/Valencia: Better due to a stronger RH alternative against tough LHP. Also can't imagine Moustakas has the leash he had in 2013, with Valencia and Bonifacio available

UTIL - Bonifacio is a HUGE upgrade

LF - Gordon: Same/better. I think it's likely he bounces back somewhat from what we saw a year ago.
CF - Cain: Same. I think we get about the same thing from Cain. Great defense. Occasional hot stretches at the plate.
RF - Aoki - BIG upgrade. Even over Lough. Basically, Tanaka can give KC the type of production it got out of David Lough in his first month... except over a whole season.

SP1: James Shields: Same
SP2: Jason Vargas: Worse, but I like Vargas to put up good No. 3 numbers (3.75 ERA/200 IP/1.25 WHIP)
SP3: Jeremy Guthrie: Same.
SP4: Duffy: Big upgrade from Wade Davis, IMO. And much bigger upside.
SP5: Davis. Same (as Mendoza). Think we could again see this spot passed off to a more effective pitcher as the season goes on, but Ventura this time instead of Chen.

Bullpen should be a little worse but still a huge weapon.

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Can't worry about service time for 2014. Ventura must start with the club, and Davis needs to be in the pen, unless he's traded (which would be outstanding, assuming Hoch is still here).

Furthermore, while I hate Dyson in the starting lineup with any regularity, he's far too valuable coming off the bench when 2B must be stolen.

I agree with you.

What I'm predicting is not so much what I WANT to happen but what I THINK will happen.

One more thing to think about: If they're putting Ventura on a 180 IP cap next year, by delaying his ascent to the majors, you might have him more innings available from him in August and September than if he's in the bigs from Day 1 (minor league season starts later and has fewer earlier games).

I think they trade Hochevar before they trade Davis, due to service time/control issues.

duncan_idaho · 12-19-2013, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I think Dyson will make it. Wasn't Maxwell rumored to be traded to LA? I think that's pretty telling of they feel about the OF.

Just looking at the roster, Dyson's ability to play CF and steal bases as a pinch runner is a huge asset, but it is more easily replicated than what you get out of Jason Maxwell (who offers big-time RH power and crushes lefties).

If they carry 12 pitchers, I think Dyson is the odd man out. It's also possible they go with 11 pitchers early to protect him.

EDIT: MY NEXT POST WILL BE NUMBER 6,000. Should I use it to start the 2014 repository?

**DeezNutz** · 12-19-2013, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I agree with you.

What I'm predicting is not so much what I WANT to happen but what I THINK will happen.

One more thing to think about: If they're putting Ventura on a 180 IP cap next year, by delaying his ascent to the majors, you might have him more innings available from him in August and September than if he's in the bigs from Day 1 (minor league season starts later and has fewer earlier games).

I think they trade Hochevar before they trade Davis, due to service time/control issues.

Excellent point. Wasn't even thinking about that, to be honest.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1380308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,172

12-19-2013, 10:36 AM	#4036
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1380308	It's a midwestern thing, I guess. Hard-working midwestern white guy who has a hot start to his career is always beloved. It happens in St. Louis and Cleveland, too. People don't want to look at how mediocre he was after his first month. Lough was .268/.296/.376 from July 1 on. I think his chances of being an everyday player basically died during that period. Regarding the roster... I wouldn't be surprised if Dyson is the odd man out. Perez No. 2 C Butler Hosmer Infante Escobar Moustakas Valencia Bonifacio Gordon Cain Aoki Maxwell Shields Vargas Guthrie Duffy Davis Holland Hochevar Crow Collins Bueno/Joseph Coleman Long reliever __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,172

12-19-2013, 10:45 AM	#4038
noa Band Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $1215453	I will be very unhappy if Davis gets another shot at being in the starting rotation. Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 8,302

12-19-2013, 10:53 AM	#4042
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17596178 VARSITY	Unless Moose and Butler come back in better condition and hit for some power, 2014 isn't going to be any better. HATE Davis in the starting rotation. Maybe we'll still have a shot at bringing Santana back? Nobody's jumped on him yet.
Posts: 40,843

12-19-2013, 10:55 AM	#4043
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	Apparently some GM's are not convinced about Tanaka not getting posted even though Rakuten said they will make Tanaka the highest-paid player in NPB history. They think Rakuten is just going through some long asian face-saving thing where they eventually post him. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

12-19-2013, 11:06 AM	#4046
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $1649122	I think Dyson will make it. Wasn't Maxwell rumored to be traded to LA? I think that's pretty telling of they feel about the OF.
Posts: 25,919