*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Captain Obvious]

Looks like Medlen had a good outing tonight. He could provide quite the jolt for our pitching staff.

[ReynardMuldrake]

I HATE the idea of cashing in our farm players as trade bait. Our farm system is what makes us competitive and is how we got where we are. Without the ability to lock in young talent for reasonable money we are going to regress to average. We don't have the money to shop for premium talent like teams like the Yankees. I would rather stay relevant the next 10 years rather than mortgage everything for one playoff run.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Captain Obvious

Looks like Medlen had a good outing tonight. He could provide quite the jolt for our pitching staff.

[Great Expectations]

What is a game score for a pitcher?

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

What is a game score for a pitcher?

Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

Start with 50 points.
Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete inning pitched.
Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.
Add one point for each strikeout.
Subtract two points for each hit allowed.
Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract one point for each walk.

Maximum score

The maximum possible game score in a nine-inning game while allowing no baserunners is 114, possible only if a pitcher goes nine innings while striking out every batter he faces and facing three batters per inning.

The pitcher receives 50 to begin with, and loses no points because there are no hits, walks, or runs of any kind. He receives 27 points for the 27 outs, and 10 points for five innings completed after the fourth inning, for a total of 87. In this "perfect score" scenario, the pitcher would have to strike out every hitter he faced, netting him an additional 27 points, for a grand total of 114.

The maximum possible score actually involves an extremely unlikely scenario in which three base runners reach base each inning on wild pitches or passed balls on third strikes. If this were to happen such that no one scored, and the pitcher recorded all outs by strikeout, a pitcher could theoretically record six strikeouts per inning, and thus 54 for the game, netting him 54 points in addition to the 87 he would have received as described above, for a total of 141.

The highest game score for a nine-inning game in the history of baseball was Kerry Wood's one-hit, no walk, 20-strikeout shutout performance for the Chicago Cubs against the Houston Astros on May 6, 1998. His game score was 105 (50 + 27 + 10 + 20 – 2).

The 100th game score of 100 points or higher was pitched by Matt Cain in June 2012.

Of the 100 such games, only ten of them were a regulation nine innings. Higher scores have been accomplished in extra-inning games. The two highest game scores ever recorded both occurred in the same game: the famous 26-inning duel from 1920, Joe Oeschger scored 153 and Leon Cadore scored 140. Oeschger had earlier scored a 102 in a 14-inning game in 1917 against Jeff Pfeffer, who scored 114. Oeschger's record in these games was 0-0, because both ended in ties and were called by darkness. In all, there have been nine games in which both starting pitchers scored 100 points; all required extra innings and none have occurred since 1971. Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn scored 112 and 97, respectively, during a complete game 16-inning match up; Spahn's score fell below 100 because of Willie Mays' game-winning home run in the bottom of the 16th.

21 pitchers with 100 or more game score points did so in losing games, including Harvey Haddix, who scored a 107 for the game in which he took a perfect game into the 13th inning. The highest-ever losing game score was 118, from Art Nehf, who outlasted the opposing starter by six innings but lost in the 21st inning. 17 of the 100+ game scores came in suspended tie games. Only seven of the 100 highest game scores were no-hitters.

Walter Johnson and Nolan Ryan had the most 100-point game scores with four apiece. Johnson had two in 1918, one in 1919, and a fourth in 1926; Ryan's came in 1972, 1973, 1990 and 1991. Warren Spahn had three 100-point game scores, in 1948, 1952 and 1960. Juan Marichal had three 100-point game scores, in 1963, 1966 and 1969. Seven pitchers had two 100-point game scores: Art Nehf (1917 and 1918), Joe Oeschger (1917 and 1920), Burleigh Grimes (1918 and 1920), Eric Erickson (1918 and 1921), Herb Pennock (1923 and 1925), Jim Maloney (1964 and 1965), and Frank Tanana (1975 and 1976).[1]

Corey Kluber's game score of 98 in an eight-inning, no-run, one-hit, no-walk, 18-strikeout performance against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 13, 2015, is the highest by any pitcher in MLB history in a non-complete game. Indians bench coach Brad Mills removed him after the eighth inning, and Cody Allen pitched the ninth inning to seal a 2-0 win.[2]

The previous holder of the record was Matt Harvey, who achieved a game score of 97 for a nine-inning non-complete game against the Chicago White Sox. (Harvey's New York Mets won in ten innings.)[3][4]

On June 18, 2014, Clayton Kershaw posted the highest ever game score for a 9-inning, no-hit effort. Kershaw struck out 15 while walking none, and the only baserunner was the result of a throwing error. His game score of 102 is the second-highest for a 9-inning game in MLB history (50 + 27 +10 + 15).[5]

The lowest game score in baseball history was Allan Travers' 26-hit, 24-run start for the Detroit Tigers on May 18, 1912. His game score was a −52. This performance only came about because the regular Tiger players staged a strike in protest of Ty Cobb's suspension. To avoid a forfeit, local college players (including Travers) were enlisted as impromptu fill-ins.

The lowest game score since 1957 was Oakland pitcher Mike Oquist's, who allowed 16 hits and 14 earned runs in five innings on August 3, 1998, for a −21.

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball's official definition of a quality start. MLB defines a quality start as six or more innings pitched while allowing three or fewer earned runs.

The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 60.

The advantage that the system has over the official definition is that it allows a statistician a better view of the degree of quality in a pitcher's performance.

Game scores can be quantified, and a pitcher's performance tracked over time. It is also possible to compare different pitchers. If one averages a 60 and another averages 55, presumably the first pitcher has had a better season.

In terms of high scores, the system favors current pitchers. It is difficult to achieve a very high score in a game without amassing a substantial number of strikeouts. In earlier eras, even for the very best pitchers, strikeouts were less plentiful. For instance, Cy Young's two no-hitters earned scores of just 90 and 88 due to their low strikeout totals (three and two, respectively).

However, most of the all-time high game scores occurred in baseball's earlier era, when starting pitchers were permitted to remain in games longer than today; four of the top six all-time game scores were accomplished in stints of 21 innings or more.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

I HATE the idea of cashing in our farm players as trade bait. Our farm system is what makes us competitive and is how we got where we are. Without the ability to lock in young talent for reasonable money we are going to regress to average. We don't have the money to shop for premium talent like teams like the Yankees. I would rather stay relevant the next 10 years rather than mortgage everything for one playoff run.

This wouldn't be mortgaging everything.

[KCCHIEFS27]

Should we go after Cueto or Upton more?

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by KCCHIEFS27

Should we go after Cueto or Upton more?

Cueto

[tk13]

Definitely Cueto. Then we have to make sure we don't ever play a game in Pittsburgh.

I get the feeling Dave Cameron isn't a big Royals fan.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

I HATE the idea of cashing in our farm players as trade bait. Our farm system is what makes us competitive and is how we got where we are. Without the ability to lock in young talent for reasonable money we are going to regress to average. We don't have the money to shop for premium talent like teams like the Yankees. I would rather stay relevant the next 10 years rather than mortgage everything for one playoff run.

It's all about the type of "cashing in" you do...

If you trade a guy who is blocked or who has similar players around him, you're trading from a surplus and can afford to do it.

It also depends on what types of players you're trading. The Royals will absolutely not move Mondesi, Manaea or Zimmer (the star-potential guys) for anything less than a good player with several years of control.

But when it's a guy like Miguel Almonte, who is close to the majors but is the 4th SP in your prospect depth chart in the minors and 6th in your "young, controlled starters" depth chart, that doesn't hurt long term unless HE hits and everyone else above him busts.

No one in here is suggesting the Royals cash in everything for short-term returns. That isn't going to happen.

[big nasty kcnut]

i want Aroldis Chapman please god i don't want him in new york or detroit or houston.

[Hootie]

Aroldis put on quite the show but he's not any more unhittable than Andrew Miller. No closer is going to stand in the way of playoff success for KC ... And it's a huge ****ing pipe dream to think we're going to add any bullpen help. Stop being greedy

[KChiefs1]

http://www.businessinsider.com/world-series-odds-2015-7

Royals 8.1% chance to win the World Series.

As we say goodbye to the All-Star break and head into the second half of the MLB season, the number of teams with a realistic shot to win the World Series has dwindled to seven, according to the "Playoff Odds Report" at Baseball Prospectus.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the heavy favorite, yet they have just a 17.7% chance to win it all (or, a 82.3% chance to get knocked out along the way). Their neighbors in Anaheim, the Los Angeles Angels (10.2%), are the only other team with better than a 10% chance.

In all, there are seven teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Series (record in parentheses):

Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39), 17.7%
Los Angeles Angels (48-40), 10.2%
New York Yankees (48-40), 9.7%
Washington Nationals (48-39), 9.3%
St. Louis Cardinals (56-33), 9.1%
Kansas City Royals (52-34), 8.1%
Houston Astros (49-42), 6.9%

In baseball, once a team gets to the playoffs, winning the World Series can be a bit of a crapshoot. So a team's chances of winning it all is just as much about opportunity as it is about how well the team is performing.

Of the seven teams above, the only team not leading their division is the Astros, who would be one of the American League Wild Card teams if the season ended today.

Meanwhile, the division leaders have a huge advantage as they are on pace to avoid having to play in a Wild Card game, which adds another opportunity for a team to be eliminated.

The list above would grow to eight if we were to round up and include the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have a 4.7% chance as the commanding leader in the National League Wild Card race.

[big nasty kcnut]

Hootie I can't help it last year was good this year seem to be even better but this time we win!

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

http://www.businessinsider.com/world-series-odds-2015-7

Royals 8.1% chance to win the World Series.

The teams with the two best records in MLB sit near the bottom of that list. LOL

Here's what I know: The top 4 on that list will NOT make it into the WS. Fact