*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I'd love to see the royals go all in for the first time in my life. Our window to win is shorter than people realize.

Exactly

[Great Expectations]

Our window gets much shorter if we trade Duffy. We have a 3-4 year window currently which is pretty good. Then if we hit on a couple of guys like Raul, Manaea, Zimmer, Eibner our window will expand.

[ChiefsCountry]

Lets go for the ship. What the Cardinals have done this past decade is amazing but it's expectation to the rule. We have a damn good shot this year, we need to capitalize.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Our window gets much shorter if we trade Duffy. We have a 3-4 year window currently which is pretty good. Then if we hit on a couple of guys like Raul, Manaea, Zimmer, Eibner our window will expand.

It's like Duffy is a proven commodity. He's not. He's a flawed pitcher at this point, and if he was what we hoped and wanted him to be there would be far less talk about Cueto.

If we can get Cueto for Duffy? Shit, I'd pay the one-way ticket to Cincinnati for Danny. Whitlock style.

[lewdog]

Just not sure we are going to be in a better position to go all in than this in our 3-4 year window. Leading our division, winning close games but still without a front line starter. Duffy is a crapshoot at this point. I'd be willing to risk winning this year for the chance Duffy maybe continues to be an erratic middle of the rotation kind of starter. He's done nothing to prove he's anything more than that at this point.

[58kcfan89]

I say this as a massive Duffy fan.

If Cinci will take Duffy + Finny + minor leaguer that isn't Mondesi or premier pitcher for Cueto, you have to do that. You can talk about windows all you want, but that window can be significantly shortened due to injury, regression or just bad luck (among numerous other reasons). If Dayton thinks Cueto is the piece that gives us the Commissioner's Trophy this season, I'm inclined to trust the man. He's stocked the farm system from nothing before, I have to believe he can recover from a couple missing pieces, no matter how important, in exchange for a legitimate shot at a world title.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

It's like Duffy is a proven commodity. He's not. He's a flawed pitcher at this point, and if he was what we hoped and wanted him to be there would be far less talk about Cueto.

If we can get Cueto for Duffy? Shit, I'd pay the one-way ticket to Cincinnati for Danny. Whitlock style.

Seriously.

Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.6 WAR, 1.1 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 IP (that's Nolan-esque) in 150 Innings. This team does not make the playoffs without Duffy last year. He was our best starting pitcher, in the year we go to the playoffs for the first time in three decades. I don't get it. The guy is having issues this season, yes. He's also 26 years old, and posted half his career innings last season. He's young with a shit metric ton of ability. He's been extremely successful at a very young age. He's a most definite proven commodity. We have seen what he is capable of.

[BigCatDaddy]

With DM and a middle of the pack budget Im not sure we are reduced to "A window". Some seasons will be better than others but I think years of having a bottom feeder are a thing of the past.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Seriously.

Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.6 WAR, 1.1 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 IP (that's Nolan-esque) in 150 Innings. This team does not make the playoffs without Duffy last year. He was our best starting pitcher, in the year we go to the playoffs for the first time in three decades. I don't get it. The guy is having issues this season, yes. He's also 26 years old, and posted half his career innings last season. He's young with a shit metric ton of ability. He's been extremely successful at a very young age. He's a most definite proven commodity. We have seen what he is capable of.

But if he doesn't revert back to old Danny D in a season like this and we stand pat, we might miss a great run that this team is capable of given our other areas of strength. The taste of winning make me want us to take a sure thing on a short time frame than the unexpected thing for the long term. Who knows what next seasons will bring but being in the driver's seat now is known.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Seriously.

Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.6 WAR, 1.1 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 IP (that's Nolan-esque) in 150 Innings. This team does not make the playoffs without Duffy last year. He was our best starting pitcher, in the year we go to the playoffs for the first time in three decades. I don't get it. The guy is having issues this season, yes. He's also 26 years old, and posted half his career innings last season. He's young with a shit metric ton of ability. He's been extremely successful at a very young age. He's a most definite proven commodity. We have seen what he is capable of.

So 1 year is a proven commodity?

[58kcfan89]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Seriously.

Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.6 WAR, 1.1 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 IP (that's Nolan-esque) in 150 Innings. This team does not make the playoffs without Duffy last year. He was our best starting pitcher, in the year we go to the playoffs for the first time in three decades. I don't get it. The guy is having issues this season, yes. He's also 26 years old, and posted half his career innings last season. He's young with a shit metric ton of ability. He's been extremely successful at a very young age. He's a most definite proven commodity. We have seen what he is capable of.

I don't think anyone here is questioning what he's capable of, the question is whether the Royals can count on him being that guy for a full season (and through a playoff run). To this point, he hasn't been that guy and they shouldn't count on him in a big spot. Some of that is just bad luck with injuries and some of that is ineffectiveness, but I don't see how Cueto wouldn't be a huge upgrade for the rest of this season + playoffs.

Again, I love Duffy, but I'd trust Cueto a hell of a lot more than him in a must-win game this season. We can worry about the 2016 rotation & beyond after we make a run at that 2015 Championship.

[Why Not?]

I see both sides of trade vs keep Duffy. Therefore, I'm gonna do what ultimately we all have to anyway. Trust DM to do the right thing.

[lewdog]

Yea, and I won't be mad with whatever we choose. Trade or stand pat. I too can see both sides and those privy to working with Duffy in the organization might know something some douches on a message board don't about his ability to transform into a front line starter. One this is for certain, moves or no moves, this second half is gonna be another awesome ride.

[tk13]

I think Duffy's the choice because we only have him for two years after this one. The other prospects are more of a crapshoot, but we still have 6 years control over all of them.

I also don't think our window is that short if we play it right. I agree you have to go for it, because you never know. But if Ventura matures and even one of these other young pitchers turns into something, we'll have something to build on. We have Ventura through 2021 if we want, and I think eventually we'll have Perez for a long time too. I assume if they rework his contract, we'll trade money for control. At least I'd hope so.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by lewdog

But if he doesn't revert back to old Danny D in a season like this and we stand pat, we might miss a great run that this team is capable of given our other areas of strength. The taste of winning make me want us to take a sure thing on a short time frame than the unexpected thing for the long term. Who knows what next seasons will bring but being in the driver's seat now is known.

I get that, i'm not sure I completely agree with it, but I certainly get it. I just don't understand people dismissing what Duffy did last year, as if it never happened.