*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

So 1 year is a proven commodity?

Here's an interesting look at some stats of two 25 year-olds in recent years.

Innings Pitched: Pitcher1 149, Pitcher2 156
Hits: Pitcher1 113, Pitcher2 123
StrikeOuts: Pitcher1 113, Pitcher2 104
ERA: Pitcher1 2.53, Pitcher2 2.31
WHIP: Pitcher1 1.11, Pitcher2 1.09
H/9: Pitcher1 6.8, Pitcher2 7.1
WAR: Pitcher1 3.6, Pitcher2 3.7

Pitcher 1. Danny Duffy.

Pitcher 2. Johnny Cueto.

Biggest difference is that Johnny had about 500 Innings experience going into that season (whereas Duffy had about 150 Innings of experience).

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Our window gets much shorter if we trade Duffy. We have a 3-4 year window currently which is pretty good. Then if we hit on a couple of guys like Raul, Manaea, Zimmer, Eibner our window will expand.

Duffy is only under control for 2 more years. As much as I love the guy, and as much raw talent he has. You make that trade

[C3HIEF3S]

Only one thing left to do now:

Trust "The Process".

[Why Not?]

Honestly, half of my concern in trading Duffy is the chemistry deal. This team clearly loves playing with each other and I don't think that can totally be dismissed. I know they did fine minus Chen, Aoki,Breakfast, etc but Duffy seems like a part of those core young guys that really like each other.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Only one thing left to do now:

Trust "The Process".

Lol

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Honestly, half of my concern in trading Duffy is the chemistry deal. This team clearly loves playing with each other and I don't think that can totally be dismissed. I know they did fine minus Chen, Aoki,Breakfast, etc but Duffy seems like a part of those core young guys that really like each other.

That chemistry starts and ends with Sal Perez.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by SPchief

That chemistry starts and ends with Sal Perez.

No disputing that

[tmw4h5]

I think the team should be looking for an OF and not SP. Duffy, Vargy, Guts, Ventura, Volquez, Young, Medlen, and even possibly Lamb are good enough to get the job done. I think the idea of renting a player for 1/2 of a season is a joke. Especially when it's going to take key pieces from the farm system.
This team has a solid window through 2017 with a possible extension of that window through 2020 if some of our prospects (Manea, Zimmer, Mondesi, Starling, Almonte, Eibner, etc, etc) hit.
I have a feeling that if we make a big move for Cueto this year, this team is going to really suck from 2017-2020.

[Ceej]

Parra please.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Seriously.

Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.6 WAR, 1.1 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 IP (that's Nolan-esque) in 150 Innings. This team does not make the playoffs without Duffy last year. He was our best starting pitcher, in the year we go to the playoffs for the first time in three decades. I don't get it. The guy is having issues this season, yes. He's also 26 years old, and posted half his career innings last season. He's young with a shit metric ton of ability. He's been extremely successful at a very young age. He's a most definite proven commodity. We have seen what he is capable of.

He wouldn't have gotten sent down earlier this year if he was proven.
Posted via Mobile Device

[KChiefs1]

What if Cincinnati wants Ventura? Do you still make the trade?

[tk13]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

What if Cincinnati wants Ventura? Do you still make the trade?

Not a chance on earth. Guy signed to a team friendly deal through 2021, or guy we have signed through 2017? No way Dayton would even consider that. Even on the Myers trade he at least got 2 years of Shields, and 5 years of Wade.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

What if Cincinnati wants Ventura? Do you still make the trade?

No chance in hell. Ventura still has what 5 years service time? Duffy has more upside than Ventura, but come on dude

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by tk13

Not a chance on earth. Guy signed to a team friendly deal through 2021, or guy we have signed through 2017? No way Dayton would even consider that. Even on the Myers trade he at least got 2 years of Shields, and 5 years of Wade.

Shit, forgot we bought out a year of control.

[alnorth]

My problem with trading Duffy is that we would not be up Cueto. We would be up Cueto and down Duffy, so we are not gaining the full value of an Ace (like we would if we only dealt prospects), we would merely gain whatever is the difference between Duffy and Cueto which is probably about 1 extra inning and 1 fewer run per start. The trade makes more sense if you are convinced that Duffy is going to be crap the rest of the year, but I don't think thats likely.

Our rotation would still be shallow, and our SP problem isn't really "fixed". I also do not believe the lack of an Ace disqualifies you in the playoffs, because we did win the AL last season and almost the whole thing. Some people are traumatized by MadBum, but there are a whole lot of Aces who did not win in the playoffs, a couple of whom we beat.

I may be greedy, but I have to believe we can get 2 months of Cueto by dealing from our farm, and if we can't, I'm not convinced that this move is the best way to improve the team.