*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[suzzer99]

Billy Beane has always said the playoffs are a crapshoot. For the most part just winning your division then prey - is the whole game. The Royals look fairly comfortable to do that this year w/o mortgaging any part of their future.

Of course the other biggest argument is what having an ace in a short series with plenty of days off can mean.

:/

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by alnorth

My problem with trading Duffy is that we would not be up Cueto. We would be up Cueto and down Duffy, so we are not gaining the full value of an Ace (like we would if we only dealt prospects), we would merely gain whatever is the difference between Duffy and Cueto which is probably about 1 extra inning and 1 fewer run per start. The trade makes more sense if you are convinced that Duffy is going to be crap the rest of the year, but I don't think thats likely.

Our rotation would still be shallow, and our SP problem isn't really "fixed". I also do not believe the lack of an Ace disqualifies you in the playoffs, because we did win the AL last season and almost the whole thing. Some people are traumatized by MadBum, but there are a whole lot of Aces who did not win in the playoffs, a couple of whom we beat.

I may be greedy, but I have to believe we can get 2 months of Cueto by dealing from our farm, and if we can't, I'm not convinced that this move is the best way to improve the team.

Talking about last years run through the playoffs is counting on Duffy, Ventura, Vargas, and Guthrie replicating what they did in last years playoffs. Can you count on that looking at the first half of the year? Cueto isn't a piece for the regular season. It's for the playoffs. And I know his history. I wouldn't make the trade, was just commenting on if that was the offer, duh you make it. Honestly, I think we'll stand pat on the SP aspect with the log jam coming and with Medlin looking decent.

[Hootie]

You'd think Royals fans who are 6 months removed from being Bumgarnered would realize how important an actual ace pitcher could be especially with our defense, park and pen

[suzzer99]

Duffy was out for the playoffs last year. Prime Duffy and I have no doubt we win the WS.

[alnorth]

You also need to factor in that our offense has improved quite a bit this season, so we don't need to count on our pitchers as much as we did.

I also don't think we should be bidding against a phantom. The Reds want to ask for an established pitcher who is on the active roster of a contending team? Fine, they can ask, but that sounds silly to me, because dealing a SP who you are currently counting on from the active 25 man (as opposed to prospects) for another SP is not wise unless your guy is hurt. I don't think they are going to get a taker on that demand from Houston or Toronto, because the improvement would be so very marginal.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Ceej

Parra please.

I wish

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by alnorth

You also need to factor in that our offense has improved quite a bit this season, so we don't need to count on our pitchers as much as we did.

I also don't think we should be bidding against a phantom. The Reds want to ask for an established pitcher who is on the active roster of a contending team? Fine, they can ask, but that sounds silly to me, because dealing a SP who you are currently counting on from the active 25 man (as opposed to prospects) for another SP is not wise unless your guy is hurt. I don't think they are going to get a taker on that demand from Houston or Toronto, because the improvement would be so very marginal.

Offense is never a winning formula in postseason play. It's almost ALWAYS pitching.

[tk13]

It isn't just our last run-in with Bumgarner. The guy has helped win 3 of the last 5 World Series. The two times he didn't, the Cardinals had Chris Carpenter and the Red Sox had Jon Lester dominating. Carpenter went toe-to-toe with with a CG vs. Halladay in a deciding game 5, then pitched 3 of the 7 World Series games. Lester completely dominated the Cardinals in the WS a couple years later.

Every ace pitcher doesn't win, but you usually don't win without an ace pitcher.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

You'd think Royals fans who are 6 months removed from being Bumgarnered would realize how important an actual ace pitcher could be especially with our defense, park and pen

and how many failed? Jon Lester is one big example. Kershaw's terrible 1st game is another. Heck, the Dodgers had both him and Greinke and didn't make it out of the 1st series.

Anyway, I can understand paying a very high price from our farm, that is what "going for it" really means. The old saying is "prospects are nice, but flags fly forever". Duffy is not a prospect.

You'll find few examples where teams dealt key pieces from the 25 man active roster at the deadline and had it work out for them.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by tk13

Every ace pitcher doesn't win, but you usually don't win without an ace pitcher.

We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".

[tk13]

You can go on down the list. The 08 Phillies had Hamels, the 07 Red Sox had Beckett, the 06 Cardinals had Carpenter, although that was some of Dave Duncan's best work. They basically won a title with Carpenter/Suppan/Jeff Weaver. But that's Dave Duncan.

The 05 White Sox swept, but even Mark Buerhle picked up an extra inning save in game 3, after starting game 2.

The 04 Red Sox had Schilling and Pedro. The 03 Marlins beat a Yankees All-Star team on the back of Josh Beckett. Threw a complete game shutout to win the series on short rest.

The 01 D'backs had Johnson/Schilling, beating the Yankee All-Star team. Randy Johnson won game 6, then won game 7 by pitching in relief of Schilling.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by alnorth

We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".

Who says that doesn't count? We had Yordano Ventura pitching like an ace. And I think he's still our best hope. He has to develop if we're going to win.

He pitched 2 games in the World Series, we won both and he had a 1.46 ERA. We had a good rotation last year. Shields and Guthrie were both on fire the last couple months of the season. Who among our starting pitchers is pitching at that level right now? Volquez is our best bet, but he doesn't have the best playoff history either. He's good, but he's not Keuchel, Sale, Kluber good either. Duffy and Ventura have high-4 ERAs. I agree they can still both turn it around. But if they are pitching like 4.75 ERA pitchers in the playoffs we will probably have an uphill road trying to win with Volquez and Young leading the rotation.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by alnorth

We won the ALCS and took the WS to game 7 with the tying run at 3rd. You can't say "bah, that don't count".

Come on AL. You're smarter than that. I'll still argue I wouldn't make the trade. But I wouldn't be upset about it.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by SPchief

Duffy is only under control for 2 more years. As much as I love the guy, and as much raw talent he has. You make that trade

Only huh?

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Only huh?

What has he shown this year that makes you think you can flip him next year?