*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[duncan_idaho]

Still a lot of Duffy talk (did I do that?). I'm not 100 percent sure that's still the discussion (it's been 10 days since I was told that, and that's an eternity in trade talks), but it makes sense to me from Cincinnati's end that they'd prefer a ready-for-2016 arm to a prospect with more control/upside.

Anyway, here's what the team is thinking, IMO, IF it trades Duffy:

1) Foremost, he's never going to consistently be the pitcher he was in 2014. If they thought this, they'd never consider moving him.

2) He's more easily replaced than a Raul Adalberto Mondesi. This is probably true. With Ventura under contract long-term, Manaea, Zimmer, Almonte, Lamb and Finnegan all close, they have enough to feel reasonably comfortable on getting at least one more decent SP out of the system in the upcoming seasons ... and maybe finding a star... and maybe finding two.

3) Yordano Ventura is a high-maintenance SP, who needs some kid gloves treatment (apparently, at this point). Duffy falls into this category, too. Having two of those - and building your long-term rotation plan on two guys like that - might seem dangerous.

I'm a big Duffy fan. I've defended him a lot. I still think he has great upside. This move would hurt, but I'd understand it if they made it.

And to be honest, I still think Cueto's actual value will end up looking something like Zack Greinke's in 2012: Top 50-75 prospect, and a couple of talented but flawed 100-200 types.

I'd much rather make a deal involving Miguel Almonte, Finnegan, and a not-Mondesi/Zimmer/Manaea-piece than anything else.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by thurman merman

My thoughts from the NWA game last night:

1) Raul Mondesi looks really good. Hitting, defense, baserunning - it looks like he has all the tools. He also laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt, so he'll be great for Ned.
2) Terrance Gore is incredibly fast. I can't wait till this guy gets back up just so we can watch him run the bases again. He bunted for a hit and beat the throw by about a full second.
3) Cody Reed got shelled, but he showed some good stuff. He retired the first 10 batters and then collapsed after that. He was hitting 95-96 consistently. I noticed him hit 97 at least once.
4) Bubba Starling had a great night. He had two hard-hit doubles into the gap and showed good speed.

Working in reverse order...

Bubba really is showing encouraging signs this season, and I don't think the prospect guys have caught up to it yet. The dip in K rate is the big one... he was a career 32 percent whiff guy entering the season, but has dropped that 6 percent overall and 8 percent in NWA (while stepping up a level, that's impressive).

Here's an interesting recent report on him from a long-time scout. Good read and says some good things about his dedication and effort. I read stuff like this (and hear stuff like this) and no longer believe the Royals have to worry about losing this kid to Nebraska football.

I was expecting something much worse than 5 IP, 3 ER when you said Reed got shelled. Not a great start but not completely terrible, either. Good to hear those reports on his stuff... What to watch for here is him improving at working through a lineup a few times. He dominated the Cardinals lineup the first time through the order... but is now working against more talented guys who are better at adjusting. Looks like that's what happened to him here (and that Mondesi error set up everything in the fiffh).

Gore is a monster on the bases. If he can consistently place bunts and scratch out the ability to get on base at a .330 clip, he can be a decent 5th OF who is a real weapon off the bench.

Mondesi is such a toolsy guy... He has the ABILITY to be the best position player the Royals farm system has produced under Dayton Moore... A Carlos Beltran-like-type impact guy from SS (less power, more speed).

Originally Posted by thurman merman

So he probably won't actually pitch, right?

I imagine he's the long guy out of the pen. They have Volquez and Young slated to pitch today, so he isn't an emergency starter or anything like that.

Might see Yost try to go quick hook on Volquez today, since he's taking the brunt of the turnaround pain from this DH.

[Sure-Oz]

@McCulloughStar: Kris Medlen likely won't be activated until Monday, Ned Yost says. He is going to pitch out of the bullpen.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@McCulloughStar: Kris Medlen likely won't be activated until Monday, Ned Yost says. He is going to pitch out of the bullpen.

Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I was expecting something much worse than 5 IP, 3 ER when you said Reed got shelled. Not a great start but not completely terrible, either. Good to hear those reports on his stuff... What to watch for here is him improving at working through a lineup a few times. He dominated the Cardinals lineup the first time through the order... but is now working against more talented guys who are better at adjusting. Looks like that's what happened to him here (and that Mondesi error set up everything in the fiffh).

Yeah, it seemed like he unraveled after the error. He gave up three more hits and threw a wild pitch before getting out of the inning. So, after retiring the first 10 batters, he gave up 2 homers, 7 hits, a walk, a wild pitch, and 7 runs (3 earned) in 1.2 IP. That's a pretty good shelling.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

Yeah, this makes no sense. Their rotation has the 12th best ERA in the AL. Get somebody fresh in there.

[C3HIEF3S]

@McCulloughStar: Jason Vargas will start on Tuesday against Pittsburgh. The team will determine who gets punted from the rotation sometime next week.

[C3HIEF3S]

Can't get the other to embed on my phone, but McCullough says Lamb is only up for today. Ned said he's the best arm in Omaha and the team wanted to reward him.

[C3HIEF3S]

So it's either Guthrie or Young going to the pen. I bet Blanton gets DFA'd (is he out of options?) and Young goes to the pen for the time being.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

They're trying to protect the investment they've made in Medlen for next season. They really want him in the starting rotation, and do that, he needs innings this season.

He's also their 6th or 7th starter right now. There's no guarantee Vargas stays healthy, and the rotation has had so many issues this season, you might need that depth.

You can always shorten a guy's stints if you don't need him to start. Much more difficult to stretch him out.

[Unsmooth-Moment]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

So it's either Guthrie or Young going to the pen. I bet Blanton gets DFA'd (is he out of options?) and Young goes to the pen for the time being.

May need to be Chris Young so he doesn't get burnt out again before September.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Shields sucked in the playoffs. Volquez will almost assuredly be better. Guthrie is pitching pretty well right now and is not showing much drop off, if any, from last season.

I don't care much about ERAs with the starting pitchers on this team. The reason is that the guys with the low ERAs eat lots of innings, while ours are not doing that so much right now. But for this team, especially in the playoffs, an innings eater is almost irrelevant because we are not going to hide our bullpen. We want to feature our bullpen. If any one of our guys pitches to the lead after 5 or 6 innings, we are most likely winning that game.

We don't need a starter who can then pitch the 7th and 8th because those spots are already on lockdown. It would be nice for a starter to do that, but we don't NEED it. Which is why I don't think trading Duffy for Cueto gives us much, if any, benefit or gain. If Cueto goes 7 innings and two runs but Duffy only goes 6 innings for two runs we have not gained much, if anything, by losing Duffy.

Obviously though if we can get Cueto without losing any MLB guys that is fine. I just don't think we will do that because GMDM is going to continue to trust his process and the moves he made, specifically that Medlen will be like our trade for a starting pitcher.

It's not about going 7 or 8 innings. I agree this team is built to use the bullpen in the playoffs. Eating innings is only important during the regular season so the bullpen is well rested for the playoffs.

But you still need a starter who can go 6 or 7 and match up with the other team's ace. Shields didn't pitch great, and we didn't win it all. That's exactly my point. Although to Shields' credit he grinded through the clinching game of the ALDS, and had a strong game against Bumgarner in Game 5... we just got completely shut down on offense.

If you think Duffy is going to give us 6 IP and 2 runs every time out in the playoffs, I agree, we shouldn't trade him. That's the million dollar question. If Duffy and Ventura are pitching closer to 5 ERA guys and giving us 5 innings and 3 runs every time out, it's going to be tougher.

[kcchiefsus]

Medlen goes to the pen. Meanwhile, our starting rotation still sucks.

[Unsmooth-Moment]

I hope we get to see Lamb pitch at some point today.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Why stretch him out as a starter in the minors to use in a loaded pen?

I really don't get it either. I thought the whole idea was to sign him and hope he can replace whoever failed in the 1st half, I did not think we were signing a late-season relief pitcher who might start in 2016.