*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Doesn't make any sense to do it this year but I've always said Ventura is a closer, not a starter

I remember when people said the same about Greinke.

If we gave up on players after a sophomore slump, this team wouldn't have any players.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Ned didn't try to spin what Ventura did tonight, nor did he defend his 2015 performances. Wouldn't comment on Yo's rotation spot. #Royals

— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) July 21, 2015

Better figure it out, Yo.

What did he say about #voteOmar?

[KChiefs1]

Royals 11th

http://espn.go.com/blog/jayson-stark...?ex_cid=espnTW

Oh, it's on: MLB Fan Power Rankings sure to spur some heated debate

Jayson Stark, Senior Writer, ESPN.com

So what if I told you that Brewers fans ranked in the top five fan bases in baseball -- and Mets fans ranked among the five worst?

Or what if I told you that Padres fans ranked higher than Cubs fans? Or that Indians fans ranked higher than Dodgers fans?

Heck, I know exactly what you’d say, actually. First off, you’d say: “Hey Stark, when did you misplace your frigging mind?"

And then, once you realized that approach wasn’t getting you anywhere, you’d say, much more politely: “Could you please show me the data that proves that? Why, thank you.”

Well, gee. You’re welcome. Now here comes the part where I say: “Don’t blame me. I didn’t come up with these MLB Fan Power Rankings. The incisive data-crunchers at TicketCity.com did.” They then directed them our way, and we found them fascinating.

So you and I get to peruse these rankings together (here's the list -- with all their data included) and see what we think. But if you really want to know what I think, here are my Top 10 Reactions to the Fan Power Rankings, with some hopefully incisive insights mixed in there that will help both of us make sense of it all:

1) RED SOX AT NO. 1? I noticed constantly that these power rankings didn’t seem to correspond with the All-Star voting. Red Sox fans may be consumed by the daily soap opera of their fine franchise, but the only guy they voted for enough to get him into the top five at any position was Xander Bogaerts, who finished fourth at shortstop.

But when I looked at the data, it was obvious why they still ranked No. 1. TicketCity ranked each franchise by percent of Twitter and Facebook followers, compared with the size of their metro area. The Red Sox were No. 1 in Facebook following and a close second to the Cardinals in Twitter followers. So they clearly hashtagged their way to the top.

2) METS AT NO. 27? I don’t dispute that Mets fans ought to rank below Yankees fans, no matter how you crunch this data. But I actually think all the teams in two-team markets wound up being ranked too low, for some reason. I’m guessing it’s because they divide their market in a way this formula may not have accurately quantified. Nevertheless, the data told us this about the Mets:

Their fans were the least likely, by far, to follow their team on social media. Only Angels fans were even close. I’m guessing, again, that this is a reflection of what it means to be the second-most popular team in a two-team market. But even if this ranking is slightly skewed, it tells us something, right?

3) ROYALS AT NO. 11? Does anybody besides me wonder where Royals fans would have finished if these rankings were compiled a year ago? Or 10 years ago? The surge of interest in this team nearly blew up the All-Star voting. And it showed up loud and clear in this data, too. The Royals’ Twitter following, measured as a percentage of their market, was topped by only five teams. And their attendance and revenue scores, when compared with market size, were incredible.

So even though they just missed the top 10, almost all of the teams ahead of them would land on any list of the most iconic franchises in baseball. And who knows? Maybe the Royals are about to reestablish their claim to being one of them.

4) PADRES FANS (12) OVER CUBS FANS (14)? OK, you’ve got me. In my experience covering baseball and hanging out at ballparks, I’d draw this conclusion: Cubs fans are everywhere. Padres fans are pretty much nowhere, except for select sports bars in La Jolla. So where did these rankings come from? These teams apparently have roughly the same percentage of social-media penetration. And the other data appears inconclusive.

So I’m back to my theory about franchises in two-team markets being at a disadvantage. The population and rooting interests of people in Chicago are so much larger and more diverse than the population and rooting interests of residents of San Diego, that has to be working against the Cubs. But if anyone agrees with this ranking, or has any other theories, please let us know. Doesn’t make much sense to me, or anyone I’ve asked, otherwise.

5) INDIANS FANS (15) OVER DODGERS FANS (20)? Let’s see now. The Dodgers rank first in the entire sport in attendance. The Indians rank behind every team except Tampa Bay. The Dodgers fill their stadium to more than 80 percent of capacity every game. The Indians fill theirs to under 40 percent. So let me say again: I’m confused!

Based on my reading of this data, the Indians actually benefited here because their population base is so much smaller than the Dodgers’. So Indians fans wound up significantly ahead in social-media scores and in revenues (based on a weighted percentage of market size). On one hand, I think it’s a good idea to take market size into consideration here. On the other, I don’t recall living in a world with more Indians fans than Dodgers fans, no matter how you compute that. But it’s interesting!

FIVE MORE OBSERVATIONS:

6) NATIONALS (23) AND RAYS (24) IN ALMOST A DEAD HEAT?

I know Washington is a big place, where stuff that’s slightly more important than baseball can find a way to dominate the headlines. But the Nationals draw twice as many fans per game as that team in Tampa Bay. Don’t ask me why they’re less likely to follow their team on Twitter.

7) ANGELS (22) AND WHITE SOX (26) IN THE BOTTOM 10?

They’re both The Other Team in two-franchise markets. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.

8) BREWERS AT NO. 4?

No argument from me on this one, believe it or not. Only four teams ranked above the Brewers in weighted Twitter following. And considering this is the smallest media market in baseball, it never ceases to impress me how rabid this fan base is.

9) GIANTS AT NO. 2?

To be honest, I thought they might be No. 1. As of the All-Star break, they'd sold out 374 regular-season games in a row, dating all the way back to 2010. They’re the best in the business at using social media and connecting with their fan base. And with all due respect to every other team and ballpark in North America, there’s nothing like a night at AT&T Park.

10) ALL-STAR VOTING VERSUS FAN RANKINGS?

I’d have thought that the All-Star voting would fall in line with these power rankings at least a little. But boy, would I have been wrong. We actually wound up with more starters elected from the BOTTOM 10 teams on this list (six) than from the top 10 (five). I kid you not. From the top 10: Buster Posey, Jhonny Peralta, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera and Todd Frazier. From the bottom 10: Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve. Moral of the story: There’s a big difference between fan power and voting power!

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I remember when people said the same about Greinke.

If we gave up on players after a sophomore slump, this team wouldn't have any players.

Completely different pitchers. Ventura has a plus fastball and two ok secondary pitches. Ok at best. Put him in the 1 inning role and he projects as a better Herrera. A guy who can condition himself to pipe 100-102 consistently. It's something to consider in a few years if Ventura doesn't develop better command / secondary pitches

[tk13]

You have to develop your own starting pitching. Ventura is signed through the decade. Tons of pitchers would be better as relievers because they can air it out, but you have to develop starters. I feel good about Ventura's ability to figure it out. He'll mature as he goes along.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

A guy who can condition himself to pipe 100-102 consistently. It's something to consider in a few years if Ventura doesn't develop better command / secondary pitches

That's where we agree. He's already showing flashes of his secondary pitches that would have made us cream ourselves if he were pitching on a 100 loss team. If he finds consistency with his tools he could be one of the best starters in baseball. I've had to remind myself a few times that he's only 24, and deserves as much patience as we've given Duffy before being let loose in the pen.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by tk13

You have to develop your own starting pitching. Ventura is signed through the decade. Tons of pitchers would be better as relievers because they can air it out, but you have to develop starters. I feel good about Ventura's ability to figure it out. He'll mature as he goes along.

I don't disagree. At worse, though, he projects as a cyborg closer when our current cyborgs move on

[Sure-Oz]

Do they send ventura to AAA since he has options?

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Do they send ventura to AAA since he has options?

That would be my vote. Let him work out his problems in the minor leagues. We need to win games at the major league level, and we have plenty of options at starting pitcher, including trading for one.

[Prison Bitch]

FG team value rankings by segment:

Pitching: 15
Offense: 7
Defense: 1


So is it any real surprise we are getting shaky pitching this year? None of those 3 guys last night were fooling anyone, and we had more pitches squared up/crushed than any game this year save the JGuts Yankee start.


Also there are 97 qualified pitchers in MLB. We have Volquez (56), Young (81), and Guts (89). It's amazing we are winning like this with such a garbage rotation.

[Three7s]

My vote is to send Ventura down. They did the same for Gordon and Moose and became better for it. You could argue the same for Duffy. Why not Ventura?

[tomahawk kid]

Originally Posted by thurman merman

So, is Ventura broken? What's the deal?

I think he's a complete head case at this point.

Falls apart with runners on base. In my opinion, he needs some tough love and should be sent down.

Clearly coddling and babying him isn't working.

[ChiefsCountry]

Of course nobody paid any attention to what Sabes said earlier this year about Ventura. Said Ventura is doing the same stuff he did in 1986. Young pitcher who struggled the year after the World Series mainly because you are trying to much instead of letting the natural talent take over.

[big nasty kcnut]

Ventura is worrying me a bit. need some minor league time to build confidence back up!

[gblowfish]

I'm sure Ventura will become a dominant pitcher like Pedro Martinez when he's a few years older, and pitching with the Red Sox or Yankees.