Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 61

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

**alnorth** · 07-22-2015, 09:31 PM

Yeah, I kinda wanna see the Tigers go on a little winning streak then collapse after the trading deadline.

KChiefs1 · 07-22-2015, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Yeah, I kinda wanna see the Tigers go on a little winning streak then collapse after the trading deadline.

Perfect

duncan_idaho · 07-22-2015, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

That's a long piece. Unfortunately, when he lists Mondesi as the first prospect available for trade, he obviously is not all that familiar with how the organization is running things or their thought process.

Mondesi is virtually untouchable as a trade piece. Maybe not 100%, but the chances sit at about 0.000001%.

There's certainly not even been a whisper of a potential trade where it would seem even plausible. I haven't even seen someone speculate about a hypothetical trade that would include the jewel of their farm system.

He talks about Mondesi not being a fit for a Hamels trade due to the presence of JP Crawford. He just mentions him as one of the "plums" of the KC farm system.

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Yeah, I kinda wanna see the Tigers go on a little winning streak then collapse after the trading deadline.

Me, too.

I want the 2016 Tigers to be the 2013 Phillies.

big nasty kcnut · 07-22-2015, 09:46 PM

I say Cleveland will be guided behind the twins.Plus mondesi must stay in kc no matter what!

Pitt Gorilla · 07-22-2015, 09:51 PM

Surprised the lack of a competitive balance pick isn't getting more play. Granted, there is nothing we can do about it, but it's unlikely that something like this happened to us two years in a row.

Coach · 07-22-2015, 09:53 PM

@HunterSamuels @FlannyMLB Gus! pic.twitter.com/Gcv0yoQxcg
— Scott (@Scooter_80) July 23, 2015

**alnorth** · 07-22-2015, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Surprised the lack of a competitive balance pick isn't getting more play. Granted, there is nothing we can do about it, but it's unlikely that something like this happened to us two years in a row.

It is unlikely, but its not crazy. Roughly speaking, if there are 12 picks for 15 teams, then the odds of the Royals getting left out two years in a row are around 4-5%. The odds that at least one team gets left out two years in a row is close to 50/50.

Wilson8 · 07-22-2015, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

It is unlikely, but its not crazy. Roughly speaking, if there are 12 picks for 15 teams, then the odds of the Royals getting left out two years in a row are around 4-5%. The odds that at least one team gets left out two years in a row is close to 50/50.

Not sure how they determine the exact way they skew this, but Royals had 4.2% chance compared with Diamond Backs 18.2% chance.

Twelve teams are eligible to win a pick in Round A this year: the D-backs, Rockies, Reds, Marlins, Padres, Rays, Brewers, Indians, A's, Pirates, Royals and Cardinals.

Clubs eligible for Round A of the Competitive Balance Lottery and their odds of receiving the first pick.

Club Chance
D-backs 18.2%
Rockies 16.5%
Reds 9.5%
Marlins 8.9%
Padres 8.9%
Rays 8.9%
Brewers 6.6%
Indians 5.4%
A's 4.5%
Pirates 4.5%
Royals 4.2%
Cardinals 3.9%

Prison Bitch · 07-22-2015, 11:34 PM

Really weird but I haven't heard anyone calling for Yost to be fired. It's amazing. He went from a shit manager costing us all these games to being a genius. No more "boom #Yosted" messages on my facebook feeds in.....eons. When did he finally learn how to manage ?

**alnorth** · 07-22-2015, 11:38 PM

in case anyone is confused by that list of 12 teams and 12 picks but the Royals didn't get one, there were 3 other teams who were ineligible for round A, but eligible for round B.

**alnorth** · 07-22-2015, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilson8

Not sure how they determine the exact way they skew this, but Royals had 4.2% chance compared with Diamond Backs 18.2% chance.

That was the chance of getting the top pick. it improves as picks are awarded and teams drop off the list.

KChiefs1 · 07-23-2015, 06:48 AM

Buster Olney said the Royals have inquired about:

Dan Haren
Matt Latos
Scott Kazmir
Mike Leake

Unsmooth-Moment · 07-23-2015, 06:52 AM

I'd like Mat Latos.

duncan_idaho · 07-23-2015, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Really weird but I haven't heard anyone calling for Yost to be fired. It's amazing. He went from a shit manager costing us all these games to being a genius. No more "boom #Yosted" messages on my facebook feeds in.....eons. When did he finally learn how to manage ?

He still does some questionable things, but what he always got roasted for the most was his bullpen management. His collection of bullpen arms is so good now, it's hard to **** it up.

He also changed his approach to bullpen use in the playoffs last year. He's now willing to do things like bring in Wade Davis with two outs in an inning that wasn't his to begin with (or Herrera).

So ... Better team + evolving as a manager =less room for criticism.

**Saul Good** · 07-23-2015, 07:56 AM

This is a bizarre team. If you look at our payroll, we are currently getting almost nothing from most the highest paid players.

Gordon, Rios, Infante, Vargas, Ventura, Medlen, and Hochevar equate to $50,000,000 in salary. Guthrie and Holland are obviously contributing, but they account for another $16,000,000. For all the talk about payrolls, we're getting most of our production from about $40,000,000 worth of it.

I realize that all teams have dead money, but it's nearly impossible for me to wrap my head around the face that we are running away with the division despite having that much money tied up in that little production considering where we've been for so long.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1979692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,397

07-22-2015, 09:31 PM	#901
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	Yeah, I kinda wanna see the Tigers go on a little winning streak then collapse after the trading deadline. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

07-22-2015, 09:46 PM	#904
big nasty kcnut The pizza king of kansas Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Somewhere in the u.s.a. Casino cash: $-2079100	I say Cleveland will be guided behind the twins.Plus mondesi must stay in kc no matter what! __________________ When it's grim, be the grim reaper and go get it. Adopt a chiefs Travis Kelce. You woke up the wrong mother****er!
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07-22-2015, 09:51 PM	#905
Pitt Gorilla Banned! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201 Casino cash: $-19806	Surprised the lack of a competitive balance pick isn't getting more play. Granted, there is nothing we can do about it, but it's unlikely that something like this happened to us two years in a row. __________________ Your son is a bench warmer because of your weak genetics not because of the coach Norlin Mommsen is disgusting.
Posts: 47,361

07-22-2015, 09:53 PM	#906
Coach Champs! Join Date: Mar 2004 Casino cash: $3788476	@HunterSamuels @FlannyMLB Gus! pic.twitter.com/Gcv0yoQxcg — Scott (@Scooter_80) July 23, 2015 __________________ Super Bowl IV, LIV, LVII & LVIII Champions 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, & 2025 AFC Champions 1985 & 2015 Major League Baseball World Series Champions 1980, 1985, 2014, & 2015 Major League Baseball American League Champions 2015 American League Central Division Champs
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07-22-2015, 11:34 PM	#909
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Really weird but I haven't heard anyone calling for Yost to be fired. It's amazing. He went from a shit manager costing us all these games to being a genius. No more "boom #Yosted" messages on my facebook feeds in.....eons. When did he finally learn how to manage ?
Posts: 87,025

07-22-2015, 11:38 PM	#910
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	in case anyone is confused by that list of 12 teams and 12 picks but the Royals didn't get one, there were 3 other teams who were ineligible for round A, but eligible for round B. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

07-23-2015, 06:48 AM	#912
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	Buster Olney said the Royals have inquired about: Dan Haren Matt Latos Scott Kazmir Mike Leake __________________
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07-23-2015, 06:52 AM	#913
Unsmooth-Moment Veteran Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: MO Casino cash: $9390051	I'd like Mat Latos.
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07-23-2015, 07:56 AM	#915
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	This is a bizarre team. If you look at our payroll, we are currently getting almost nothing from most the highest paid players. Gordon, Rios, Infante, Vargas, Ventura, Medlen, and Hochevar equate to $50,000,000 in salary. Guthrie and Holland are obviously contributing, but they account for another $16,000,000. For all the talk about payrolls, we're getting most of our production from about $40,000,000 worth of it. I realize that all teams have dead money, but it's nearly impossible for me to wrap my head around the face that we are running away with the division despite having that much money tied up in that little production considering where we've been for so long.
Posts: 41,870