*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[KChiefs1]

For our 5th pitcher it was a fantastic performance.

We need an ace.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by tk13

Guthrie gave us 7 innings tonight. He did his job. It's not his fault he's basically a #5 starter forced into being a 2/3 starter because our rotation is struggling. He's a perfectly fine #4 or 5 starter on a championship team, and he always has been.

Come on.

[KChiefs1]

The Great Balbino had to be carted off the field tonight.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Yost says Moose and Hosmer will likely get Sunday off, Cain likely to sit tomorrow. #Royals

— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) July 24, 2015

JFC...they seem to get a lot of days off...especially Moose.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

The Great Balbino had to be carted off the field tonight.

Bye-Bye Balbino

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Come on.

I agree he started terribly, but it's been exactly two months since the Yankees game. Over those two months he's given us 5+ innings in 10 straight starts. He's posted a 4.25 ERA with 15 BB and 37 K.

He's probably going to finish 2nd on the team in IP for the 3rd straight year. He's been a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Those cost money these days.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by tk13

I agree he started terribly, but it's been exactly two months since the Yankees game. Over those two months he's given us 5+ innings in 10 straight starts. He's posted a 4.25 ERA with 15 BB and 37 K.

He's probably going to finish 2nd on the team in IP for the 3rd straight year. He's been a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Those cost money these days.

But he lost a game in which he got 4 hits and zero runs worth of support, so he sucks.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by tk13

I agree he started terribly, but it's been exactly two months since the Yankees game. Over those two months he's given us 5+ innings in 10 straight starts. He's posted a 4.25 ERA with 15 BB and 37 K.

He's probably going to finish 2nd on the team in IP for the 3rd straight year. He's been a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Those cost money these days.

I agree. If you look at Guthrie's year as a whole, the conclusion would obviously be that he has been terrible. But even a couple starts before the game in New York, he has been serviceable as a back-end of the rotation guy. He isn't as big of a problem on this team as some make him out to be, but unfortunately that is magnified because we have no one reliable up front besides Volquez. No one is disputing that Guthrie started the season miserably, but he hasn't been terrible since June for what his role is supposed to be in an innings eater that can qualify as a 4-5 starter.

IMO, it would be a shame if we can't add to the rotation at the deadline. Rany thinks that a bat is more important, Vernier believes no moves need to be made, Parkins on 610 says we need pitching. Should be interesting here in the next week. The ball is in DM's court here.

[tk13]

Yeah I don't know what Rany's thinking. Usually he's pretty sharp. Unless you think Gordon is not going to come back, then I think you could make the case we need to replace his bat.

But what's our playoff rotation right now? Does anyone really know? It's literally going to be whoever is hot in September. Certainly Volquez and Duffy, and probably Ventura, but that could go a million directions in two months. Even if you think offense is more important than pitching, how is that not a bit worrying?

[Anyong Bluth]

Ya know what is nuts. We have the 8th best era in baseball.

Settle down. Let's see, Guthrie going against one of the pitchers people were interested in trading for to be our frontline guy, and yet an outcry of disbelief that the Royals didn’t hit 5 homeruns, score 10+, while JGuts was supposed to strikeout 27...

Nancies

I've been saying all year Houston is a horrible matchup for us. Hopefully they can pick up these final 2 and we can be done with it and hope their not our opposition in October, or we've revamped some things by then.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah I don't know what Rany's thinking. Usually he's pretty sharp. Unless you think Gordon is not going to come back, then I think you could make the case we need to replace his bat.

But what's our playoff rotation right now? Does anyone really know? It's literally going to be whoever is hot in September. Certainly Volquez and Duffy, and probably Ventura, but that could go a million directions in two months. Even if you think offense is more important than pitching, how is that not a bit worrying?

Its why I was worried about SP depth and thought trading Duffy was insanity. I don't want to trade Mondesi either (and now since this is clearly a buyer's market, thats not even on the table anymore, which is good), but at least that would have been somewhat logical since we'd be adding a pitcher.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

JFC...they seem to get a lot of days off...especially Moose.

Yes that is a luxury of having a 5.5 division lead, over a team that no one still takes seriously, in July.

[suzzer99]

But having said that - I am ready for a SP. Once Vargas went down we have to pull the string on someone.

As far as Rf, unless a cream puff deal just falls into our lap I am ok with Orlando/Dyson and Rios until Gordon comes back.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yes that is a luxury of having a 5.5 division lead, over a team that no one still takes seriously, in July.

Plus we're playing 18 games in 17 days during the hottest time of the year. Ned seems to be trying to make sure we aren't gassed by September. Amazed he gave Perez a Friday night off.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by tk13

Plus we're playing 18 games in 17 days during the hottest time of the year. Ned seems to be trying to make sure we aren't gassed by September. Amazed he gave Perez a Friday night off.

Good on him. Everyone remembers last fall, and it's not a knock on Salvy. He was a warrior last season with all the time he put in behind the dish. It just ended up being the reason he was running on bald tires come September.